4D Travel-Time Tomography as a Tool for Tracking Fluid-Driven Medium Changes in Offshore Oil–Gas Exploitation Areas

The monitoring of rock volume where offshore exploitation activities take place is crucial to assess the corresponding seismic hazard. Fluid injection/extraction operations generate a pore fluid pressure perturbation into the volume hosting the reservoir which, in turn, may trigger new failures and induce changes in the elastic properties of rocks. Our purpose is to evaluate the feasibility of reconstructing pore pressure perturbation diffusion in the host medium by imaging the 4D velocity changes using active seismic. We simulated repeated active offshore surveys and imaged the target volume. We constructed the velocity model perturbed by the fluid injection using physical modeling and evaluated under which conditions the repeated surveys could image the velocity changes. We found that the induced pressure perturbation causes seismic velocity variations ranging between 2–5% and 15–20%, depending on the different injection conditions and medium properties. So, in most cases, time-lapse tomography is very efficient in tracking the perturbation. The noise level characterizing the recording station sites is a crucial parameter. Since we evaluated the feasibility of the proposed 4D imaging strategy under different realistic environmental and operational conditions, our results can be directly applied to set up and configure the acquisition layout of surveys aimed at retrieving fluid-induced medium changes in the hosting medium. Moreover, our results can be considered as a useful starting point to design the guidelines to monitor exploitation areas.

Integrated Morpho-Bathymetric, Seismic-Stratigraphic, and Sedimentological Data on the Dohrn Canyon (Naples Bay, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea): Relationships with Volcanism and Tectonics

Submarine canyons are geomorphologic lineaments engraving the slope/outer shelf of continental margins. These features are often associated with significant geologic hazard when they develop close to densely populated coastal zones. The seafloor of Naples Bay is deeply cut by two incisions characterized by a dense network of gullies, namely the Dohrn and Magnaghi canyons, which develop from the shelf break of the Campania margin, down to the peripheral rise of the Eastern Tyrrhenian bathyal plain. Seismic-stratigraphic interpretation of multichannel seismic reflection profiles has shown that quaternary tectonics and recent to active volcanism have exerted a significant control on the morphological evolution and source-to sink depositional processes of the Dohrn and Magnaghi submarine canyons. The Dohrn canyon is characterized by relatively steep walls hundreds of meters high, which incise a Middle-Late Pleistocene prograding wedge, formed by clastic and volcaniclastic deposits associated with the paleo-Sarno river system during the Mid-Late Pleistocene. The formation of the Dohrn canyon predates the onset of the volcanic eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT), an ignimbrite deposit of ca. 15 ka that represents the bedrock on which the town of Napoli is built. Integrated stratigraphic analysis of high-resolution seismic profiles and marine gravity core data (C74_12) collected along the flanks of the eastern bifurcation of the head of Dohrn Canyon suggests that depositional processes along the canyon flanks are dominated by gravity flows (e.g., fine-grained turbidites, debris flows) and sediment mass transport associated with slope instability and failure.

Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography for a 3D picture of the most active sector of Campi Flegrei caldera

The central sector of the Campi Flegrei volcano, including the Solfatara maar and Pisciarelli fumarole field, is currently the most active area of the caldera as regards seismicity and gaseous emissions and it plays a significant role in the ongoing unrest. However, a general volcano-tectonic reconstruction of the entire sector is still missing. This work aims to depict, for the first time, the architecture of the area through the application of deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography. We reconstructed a three-dimensional resistivity model for the entire sector. Results provide useful elements to understand the present state of the system and the possible evolution of the volcanic activity and shed solid bases for any attempt to develop physical-mathematical models investigating the ongoing phenomena.

A New Geospatial Model Integrating a Fuzzy Rule-Based System in a GIS Platform to Partition a Complex Urban System in Homogeneous Urban Contexts

Here, we present a new unsupervised method aimed at obtaining a partition of a complex urban system in homogenous urban areas, called urban contexts. Our model integrates spatial analysis processes and a fuzzy rule-based system applied to manage the knowledge of domain experts; it is implemented using a GIS platform. The area of study is initially partitioned in microzones, homogeneous portions of the urban system, which are the atomic reference elements for the census data. With the contribution of domain experts, we identify the physical, morphological, environmental, and socio-economic indicators needed to identify synthetic characteristics of urban contexts and create the fuzzy rule set necessary for determining the type of urban context. We implement the set of spatial analysis processes required to calculate the indicators for the microzones and apply a Mamdani fuzzy rule system to classify the microzones. Finally, the partition of the area of study in urban contexts is obtained by dissolving continuous microzones belonging to the same type of urban context. Tests are performed on the Municipality of Pozzuoli (Naples, Italy); the reliability of the out model is measured by comparing the results with the ones obtained through a detailed analysis.

Tidal and hydrological periodicities of seismicity reveal new risk scenarios at Campi Flegrei caldera

The volcano-tectonic seismicity occurring at Campi Flegrei caldera during its present unrest phase, started in 2005, is distributed into time-clustered events emerging from a background composed of earthquakes with higher inter-arrival times. Here, we show that clustered seismicity is cyclically recurrent at time scales from semidiurnal to annual, matching tidal and hydrological periodicities. These results suggest that volcano-tectonic seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera is driven by both variations in the deep magmatic feeding system and exogenous phenomena, as rainfall or global inflation/deflation cycles of the Earth’s crust, controlled by the lunisolar interaction. Consequently, the role of exogenous triggers in the evolution of the present unrest phase should be properly considered in the elaboration of volcanic risk scenarios, presently limited to the study of surface indicators of deep phenomena.

Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei, Italy: implications for hazard assessment

Campi Flegrei caldera, west of Naples in southern Italy, has an exceptional documented record of ground deformation from Roman times onwards. Systematic recording began in the nineteenth century. For earlier dates, information has been obtained from archaeological studies and from contemporary descriptions of the locations of buildings, usually Roman, with respect to sea-level. Especially important have been accounts related to the Serapis, a Roman market-place built in the second century bc and now incorporated within the modern town of Pozzuoli. The long-term patterns of ground deformation have conventionally been investigated on the premise that Campi Flegrei naturally tends to a state of static equilibrium. This study argues that, instead, the area naturally tends to a steady rate of subsidence, at about 17 mm a−1. After this background rate has been removed, the data indicate that a permanent uplift of some 33 m has occurred from Roman times (up until the present day: 2005 at the time of writing), attributable to the intrusion of 1.85 km3 of magma, of which only 1% has been erupted. Uplift has occurred in three episodes, the third of which is still in progress. The behaviour can be interpreted in terms of the intermittent ascent of magma between a reservoir of c. 102–103 km3 at depths of 8–15 km or greater, to a much smaller, shallower system at depths of about 3–4 km. Should the current pattern of deformation follow previous trends, uplift is expected to continue for another 80–90 years, during which time Campi Flegrei will be characterized by an elevated possibility of eruption.

The Campi Flegrei caldera: unrest mechanisms and hazards

In the last four decades, Campi Flegrei caldera has been the world’s most active caldera characterized by intense unrest episodes involving huge ground deformation and seismicity, but, at the time of writing, has not culminated in an eruption. We present a careful review, with new analyses and interpretation, of all the data and recent research results. We deal with three main problems: the tentative reconstruction of the substructure; the modelling of unrest episodes to shed light on possible pre-eruptive scenarios; and the probabilistic estimation of the hazards from explosive pyroclastic products. The results show, for the first time at a volcano, that a very peculiar mechanism is generating episodes of unrest, involving mainly activation of the geothermal system from deeper magma reservoirs. The character and evolution of unrest episodes is strongly controlled by structural features, like the ring-fault system at the borders of the caldera collapse. The use of detailed volcanological, mathematical and statistical procedures also make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of eruptive hazards in the whole Neapolitan area. The complex behaviour of this caldera, involving interaction between magmatic and geothermal phenomena, sheds light on the dynamics of the most dangerous types of volcanoes in the world.