Multiscale Post-Seismic Deformation Based on cGNSS Time Series Following the 2015 Lefkas (W. Greece) Mw6.5 Earthquake

In the present work, a multiscale post-seismic relaxation mechanism, based on the existence of a distribution in relaxation time, is presented. Assuming an Arrhenius dependence of the relaxation time with uniform distributed activation energy in a mesoscopic scale, a generic logarithmic-type relaxation in a macroscopic scale results. The model was applied in the case of the strong 2015 Lefkas Mw6.5 (W. Greece) earthquake, where continuous GNSS (cGNSS) time series were recorded in a station located in the near vicinity of the epicentral area. The application of the present approach to the Lefkas event fits the observed displacements implied by a distribution of relaxation times in the range τmin ≈ 3.5 days to τmax ≈ 350 days.

Unravelling the contribution of early postseismic deformation using sub-daily GNSS positioning

After large earthquakes, parts of the fault continue to slip for days to months during the afterslip phase, a behaviour documented for many earthquakes. Yet, little is known about the early stage, i.e., from minutes to hours after the mainshock. Its detailed study requires continuous high-rate position time series close to the fault, and advanced signal processing to accurately extract the surface displacements. Here, we use refined kinematic precise point positioning processing to document the early postseismic deformation for three earthquakes along the South American subduction zone (2010 M_w8.8 Maule, Chile; 2015 M_w8.3 Illapel, Chile; 2016 M_w7.6 Pedernales, Ecuador). First, we show that early afterslip generates significant surface displacement as early as a few tens of minutes after the earthquake. Our analysis of the time series indicates that, over the first 36 hours, more than half of the displacement occurs within the first 12 hours, a time window often disregarded with daily positioning. Thus, estimates of coseismic offsets can be biased by more than 10% if early postseismic displacements are acknowledged as coseismic ones. Finally, these results highlight the difficulty to accurately evaluate the different contribution to the seismic cycle budget and thus the associated hazard on faults.

Constant strain accumulation rate between major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault

Earthquakes are caused by the release of tectonic strain accumulated between events. Recent advances in satellite geodesy mean we can now measure this interseismic strain accumulation with a high degree of accuracy. But it remains unclear how to interpret short-term geodetic observations, measured over decades, when estimating the seismic hazard of faults accumulating strain over centuries. Here, we show that strain accumulation rates calculated from geodetic measurements around a major transform fault are constant for its entire 250-year interseismic period, except in the ~10 years following an earthquake. The shear strain rate history requires a weak fault zone embedded within a strong lower crust with viscosity greater than ~10²⁰ Pa s. The results support the notion that short-term geodetic observations can directly contribute to long-term seismic hazard assessment and suggest that lower-crustal viscosities derived from postseismic studies are not representative of the lower crust at all spatial and temporal scales.