1
|
Ye X, Wang X, Zhang L. Diagnosing the Model Bias in Simulating Daily Surface Ozone Variability Using a Machine Learning Method: The Effects of Dry Deposition and Cloud Optical Depth. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2022; 56:16665-16675. [PMID: 36437714 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c05712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Machine learning methods are increasingly used in air quality studies to predict air pollution levels, while few applied them to diagnose and improve the underlying mechanisms controlling air pollution represented in chemical transport models (CTMs). Here, we use the random forest (RF) method to diagnose high biases of surface daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the GEOS-Chem CTM evaluated against measurements from the nationwide monitoring network in summer 2018 over China. The feature importance results show that cloud optical depth (COD), relative humidity, and precipitation are the top three factors affecting CTM high biases. Such results indicate that the high ozone biases in summer over China mainly occur on wet/cloudy days (∼40% biased high), while biases on dry/clear days are small (within 5%). We link the important features with model parameterizations and variables, identifying model underestimates in the dry deposition velocity and COD on wet/cloudy days. By accounting for the enhanced dry deposition on wet plant cuticles and using satellite observation constrained COD, we find that CTM high ozone biases can be halved with an improved agreement in the temporal variability, highlighting the effects of dry deposition and COD on ozone, as suggested by the RF outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xingpei Ye
- Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
| | - Xiaolin Wang
- Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
| | - Lin Zhang
- Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Huang Z, Zheng J, Ou J, Zhong Z, Wu Y, Shao M. A Feasible Methodological Framework for Uncertainty Analysis and Diagnosis of Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2019; 53:3110-3118. [PMID: 30776890 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b06326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The current state of quantifying uncertainty in chemical transport models (CTM) is often limited and insufficient due to numerous uncertainty sources and inefficient or inaccurate uncertainty propagation methods. In this study, we proposed a feasible methodological framework for CTM uncertainty analysis, featuring sensitivity analysis to filter for important model inputs and a new reduced-form model (RFM) that couples the high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) and the stochastic response surface model (SRSM) to boost uncertainty propagation. Compared with the SRSM, the new RFM approach is 64% more computationally efficient while maintaining high accuracy. The framework was applied to PM2.5 simulations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region and found five precursor emissions, two pollutants in lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), and three meteorological inputs out of 203 model inputs to be important model inputs based on sensitivity analysis. Among these selected inputs, primary PM2.5 emissions, PM2.5 concentrations of LBCs, and wind speed were identified as key uncertainty sources, which collectively contributed 81.4% to the total uncertainty in PM2.5 simulations. Also, when evaluated against observations, we found that there were systematic underestimates in PM2.5 simulations, which can be attributed to the two-product method that describes the formation of secondary organic aerosol.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhijiong Huang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research , Jinan University , Guangzhou , P.R. China
| | - Junyu Zheng
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research , Jinan University , Guangzhou , P.R. China
| | - Jiamin Ou
- School of International Development , University of East Anglia , Norwich NR4 7JT , U.K
| | - Zhuangmin Zhong
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research , Jinan University , Guangzhou , P.R. China
| | - Yuqi Wu
- School of Environment and Energy , South China University of Technology , Guangzhou , P.R. China
| | - Min Shao
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research , Jinan University , Guangzhou , P.R. China
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Bei N, Li G, Meng Z, Weng Y, Zavala M, Molina LT. Impacts of using an ensemble Kalman filter on air quality simulations along the California-Mexico border region during Cal-Mex 2010 field campaign. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2014; 499:141-153. [PMID: 25181046 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2014] [Revised: 07/27/2014] [Accepted: 07/31/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) on air quality simulations in the California-Mexico border region on two days (May 30 and June 04, 2010) during Cal-Mex 2010. The uncertainties in ozone (O3) and aerosol simulations in the border area due to the meteorological initial uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations. The ensemble spread of surface O3 averaged over the coastal region was less than 10ppb. The spreads in the nitrate and ammonium aerosols are substantial on both days, mostly caused by the large uncertainties in the surface temperature and humidity simulations. In general, the forecast initialized with the EnKF analysis (EnKF) improved the simulation of meteorological fields to some degree in the border region compared to the reference forecast initialized with NCEP analysis data (FCST) and the simulation with observation nudging (FDDA), which in turn leading to reasonable air quality simulations. The simulated surface O3 distributions by EnKF were consistently better than FCST and FDDA on both days. EnKF usually produced more reasonable simulations of nitrate and ammonium aerosols compared to the observations, but still have difficulties in improving the simulations of organic and sulfate aerosols. However, discrepancies between the EnKF simulations and the measurements were still considerably large, particularly for sulfate and organic aerosols, indicating that there are still ample rooms for improvement in the present data assimilation and/or the modeling systems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Naifang Bei
- School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China; Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA.
| | - Guohui Li
- Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA; Key Laboratory of Aerosol Science & Technology, SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
| | - Zhiyong Meng
- School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yonghui Weng
- Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvanian State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - Miguel Zavala
- Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - L T Molina
- Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Garaud D, Mallet V. Automatic calibration of an ensemble for uncertainty estimation and probabilistic forecast: Application to air quality. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd015780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
5
|
Digar A, Cohan DS, Bell ML. Uncertainties influencing health-based prioritization of ozone abatement options. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2011; 45:7761-7767. [PMID: 21838245 DOI: 10.1021/es200165n] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
The primary goal of air quality management is protection of human health. Therefore, formulation of ground-level ozone mitigation policies could be informed by considering not just attainment of regulatory standards but also how control measures benefit public health. However, evaluation of health impacts is complicated by uncertainties associated with photochemical modeling and epidemiological studies. This study demonstrates methods to characterize uncertainties influencing health-benefits estimation of ozone reduction (averted premature mortalities due to short-term exposure) in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) region. Uncertainty in photochemical modeling and the selection of temporal metric (duration of ozone exposure) for concentration-response relationships can each affect the health-based prioritization of ozone control options. For example, deterministic results (neglecting uncertainties) based on 8-h daily maximum ozone reduction shows DFW anthropogenic NO(x) controls to yield 9.23 times as much benefit per ton as VOC controls. However, the rankings reverse under 5.7% of the cases (including 2.8% cases that exhibit incremental mortalities due to NO(X) control) when uncertainties in the photochemical model are considered. Evaluated ozone exposure on a 24-h rather than an 8-h basis also reverses the rankings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Antara Digar
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, 6100 Main Street, MS-519, Houston, Texas 77005, USA.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
6
|
Mallet V, Stoltz G, Mauricette B. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
7
|
Borrego C, Monteiro A, Ferreira J, Miranda AI, Costa AM, Carvalho AC, Lopes M. Procedures for estimation of modelling uncertainty in air quality assessment. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2008; 34:613-620. [PMID: 18234341 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2007.12.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
The main objectives of this work focus, firstly, on a review of the current existent methodologies to estimate air quality modelling uncertainty, and, secondly, in the preparation of guidelines for modelling uncertainty estimation, which can be used by local and regional authorities responsible for air quality management. From the application exercise, it was concluded that it is possible to define a subset of statistical parameters able to reproduce the general uncertainties estimation. Concerning the quality indicators defined by EU directives, the results show that the legislated uncertainty estimation measures are ambiguous and inadequate in several aspects, mainly in what concerns the error measures for hourly and daily indicators based on the highest observed concentration. A relative error at the percentile correspondent to the allowed number of exceedances of the limit value was suggested and tested, showing that is a more robust and appropriate parameter for model performance evaluation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- C Borrego
- Departamento de Ambiente e Ordenamento, CESAM, Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
8
|
Honoré C, Rouïl L, Vautard R, Beekmann M, Bessagnet B, Dufour A, Elichegaray C, Flaud JM, Malherbe L, Meleux F, Menut L, Martin D, Peuch A, Peuch VH, Poisson N. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd008761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
9
|
Deguillaume L, Beekmann M, Derognat C. Uncertainty evaluation of ozone production and its sensitivity to emission changes over the Ile-de-France region during summer periods. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
10
|
Pison I, Menut L, Bergametti G. Inverse modeling of surface NOxanthropogenic emission fluxes in the Paris area during the Air Pollution Over Paris Region (ESQUIF) campaign. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd008871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
11
|
Blond N, Boersma KF, Eskes HJ, van der A RJ, Van Roozendael M, De Smedt I, Bergametti G, Vautard R. Intercomparison of SCIAMACHY nitrogen dioxide observations, in situ measurements and air quality modeling results over Western Europe. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- N. Blond
- Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, UMR CNRS 7583; Universités Paris 7 et 12; Créteil France
| | - K. F. Boersma
- Atmospheric Composition Climate Research; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; De Bilt Netherlands
| | - H. J. Eskes
- Atmospheric Composition Climate Research; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; De Bilt Netherlands
| | - R. J. van der A
- Atmospheric Composition Climate Research; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; De Bilt Netherlands
| | | | - I. De Smedt
- Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; Brussels Belgium
| | - G. Bergametti
- Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, UMR CNRS 7583; Universités Paris 7 et 12; Créteil France
| | - R. Vautard
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique; UMR CNRS 8539, École Polytechnique; Palaiseau France
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Zhang F, Bei N, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Li G, Zhang R, Stuart A, Aksoy A. Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on ozone pollution predictability estimated through meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
13
|
Monteiro A, Miranda AI, Borrego C, Vautard R. Air quality assessment for Portugal. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2007; 373:22-31. [PMID: 17207847 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.10.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2006] [Revised: 09/15/2006] [Accepted: 10/05/2006] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
According to the Air Quality Framework Directive, air pollutant concentration levels have to be assessed and reported annually by each European Union member state, taking into consideration European air quality standards. Plans and programmes should be implemented in zones and agglomerations where pollutant concentrations exceed the limit and target values. The main objective of this study is to perform a long-term air quality simulation for Portugal, using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model, applied over Portugal, for the year 2001. The model performance was evaluated by comparing its results to air quality data from the regional monitoring networks and to data from a diffusive sampling experimental campaign. The results obtained show a modelling system able to reproduce the pollutant concentrations' temporal evolution and spatial distribution observed at the regional networks of air quality monitoring. As far as the fulfilment of the air quality targets is concerned, there are excessive values for nitrogen and sulfur dioxides, ozone also being a critical gaseous pollutant in what concerns hourly concentrations and AOT40 (Accumulated Over Threshold 40 ppb) values.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A Monteiro
- CESAM, Departmento de Ambiente e Ordenamento, Universidade de Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
| | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
14
|
Deguillaume L, Beekmann M, Menut L. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis applied to regional-scale inverse emission modeling for reactive trace gases. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
15
|
Mallet V, Sportisse B. Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
|
16
|
Smiatek G, Bogacki M. Uncertainty assessment of potential biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from forests with the Monte Carlo method: Case study for an episode from 1 to 10 July 2000 in Poland. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2005. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jd005685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
17
|
Chazette P. Optical properties of urban aerosol from airborne and ground-based in situ measurements performed during the Etude et Simulation de la Qualité de l'air en Ile de France (ESQUIF) program. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2005. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jd004810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
18
|
Blond N. Three-dimensional ozone analyses and their use for short-term ozone forecasts. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2004. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jd004515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
19
|
Sillman S. O3-NOx-VOC sensitivity and NOx-VOC indicators in Paris: Results from models and Atmospheric Pollution Over the Paris Area (ESQUIF) measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd001561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
20
|
Vautard R. A synthesis of the Air Pollution Over the Paris Region (ESQUIF) field campaign. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jd003380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|