Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons¹. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s². A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased^3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown³. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.

Using Bayesian optimization method and FLEXPART tracer model to evaluate CO emission in East China in springtime

Carbon monoxide (CO) is of great interest as a restriction factor for pollutants related to incomplete combustions. This study attempted to evaluate CO emission in East China using the analytical Bayesian inverse method and observations at Mount Hua in springtime. The mixing ratio of CO at the receptor was calculated using 5-day source-receptor relationship (SRR) simulated by a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART) and CO emission flux. The stability of the inversion solution was evaluated on the basis of repeated random sampling simulations. The inversion results demonstrated that there were two city cluster regions (the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the low reaches of the Yangtze River Delta) where the difference between a priori (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B, INTEX-B) and a posteriori was statistically significant and the a priori might underestimate the CO emission flux by 37 %. A correction factor (a posteriori/a priori) of 1.26 was suggested for CO emission in China in spring. The spatial distribution and magnitude of the CO emission flux were comparable to the latest regional emission inventory in Asia (REAS2.0). Nevertheless, further evaluation is still necessary in view of the larger uncertainties for both the analytical inversion and the bottom-up statistical approaches.

North American acetone sources determined from tall tower measurements and inverse modeling

We apply a full year of continuous atmospheric acetone measurements from the University of Minnesota tall tower Trace Gas Observatory (KCMP tall tower; 244 m a.g.l.), with a 0.5° × 0.667° GEOS-Chem nested grid simulation to develop quantitative new constraints on seasonal acetone sources over North America. Biogenic acetone emissions in the model are computed based on the MEGANv2.1 inventory. An inverse analysis of the tall tower observations implies a 37% underestimate of emissions from broadleaf trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants, and an offsetting 40% overestimate of emissions from needleleaf trees plus secondary production from biogenic precursors. The overall result is a small (16%) model underestimate of the total primary + secondary biogenic acetone source in North America. Our analysis shows that North American primary + secondary anthropogenic acetone sources in the model (based on the EPA NEI 2005 inventory) are accurate to within approximately 20%. An optimized GEOS-Chem simulation incorporating the above findings captures 70% of the variance (R = 0.83) in the hourly measurements at the KCMP tall tower, with minimal bias. The resulting North American acetone source is 11 Tg a-1, including both primary emissions (5.5 Tg a-1) and secondary production (5.5 Tg a-1), and with roughly equal contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources. The North American acetone source alone is nearly as large as the total continental volatile organic compound (VOC) source from fossil fuel combustion. Using our optimized source estimates as a baseline, we evaluate the sensitivity of atmospheric acetone and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) to shifts in natural and anthropogenic acetone sources over North America. Increased biogenic acetone emissions due to surface warming are likely to provide a significant offset to any future decrease in anthropogenic acetone emissions, particularly during summer.

Inverse modeling of Asian (222)Rn flux using surface air (222)Rn concentration

When used with an atmospheric transport model, the (222)Rn flux distribution estimated in our previous study using soil transport theory caused underestimation of atmospheric (222)Rn concentrations as compared with measurements in East Asia. In this study, we applied a Bayesian synthesis inverse method to produce revised estimates of the annual (222)Rn flux density in Asia by using atmospheric (222)Rn concentrations measured at seven sites in East Asia. The Bayesian synthesis inverse method requires a prior estimate of the flux distribution and its uncertainties. The atmospheric transport model MM5/HIRAT and our previous estimate of the (222)Rn flux distribution as the prior value were used to generate new flux estimates for the eastern half of the Eurasian continent dividing into 10 regions. The (222)Rn flux densities estimated using the Bayesian inversion technique were generally higher than the prior flux densities. The area-weighted average (222)Rn flux density for Asia was estimated to be 33.0 mBq m(-2) s(-1), which is substantially higher than the prior value (16.7 mBq m(-2) s(-1)). The estimated (222)Rn flux densities decrease with increasing latitude as follows: Southeast Asia (36.7 mBq m(-2) s(-1)); East Asia (28.6 mBq m(-2) s(-1)) including China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; and Siberia (14.1 mBq m(-2) s(-1)). Increase of the newly estimated fluxes in Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia from the prior ones contributed most significantly to improved agreement of the model-calculated concentrations with the atmospheric measurements. The sensitivity analysis of prior flux errors and effects of locally exhaled (222)Rn showed that the estimated fluxes in Northern and Central China, Korea, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia were robust, but that in Central Asia had a large uncertainty.

Total gaseous concentrations in mercury in Seoul, Korea: Local sources compared to long-range transport from China and Japan

Total gaseous mercury (TGM) and carbon monoxide (CO) were measured every 5min and hourly, respectively, in Seoul, Korea, from February 2005 through December 2006. The mean concentrations of TGM and CO were 3.44+/-2.13ngm(-3) and 613+/-323ppbv, respectively. TGM and CO concentrations were highest during the winter and lowest during the summer. In total, 154 high TGM concentration events were identified: 86 were classified as long-range transport events and 68 were classified as local events. The TGM and CO concentrations were well correlated during all long-range transport events and were weakly correlated during local events. Five-day backward trajectory analysis for long-range transport events showed four potential source regions: China (79%), Japan (13%), the Yellow Sea (6%), and Russia (2%). Our results suggest that measured DeltaTGM/DeltaCO can be used to identify long-range transported mercury and to estimate mercury emissions from long-range transport.

A modeling study of coarse particulate matter pollution in Beijing: regional source contributions and control implications for the 2008 Summer Olympics

In the last 10 yr, Beijing has made a great effort to improve its air quality. However, it is still suffering from regional coarse particulate matter (PM10) pollution that could be a challenge to the promise of clean air during the 2008 Olympics. To provide scientific guidance on regional air pollution control, the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) air quality modeling system was used to investigate the contributions of emission sources outside the Beijing area to pollution levels in Beijing. The contributions to the PM10 concentrations in Beijing were assessed for the following sources: power plants, industry, domestic sources, transportation, agriculture, and biomass open burning. In January, it is estimated that on average 22% of the PM10 concentrations can be attributed to outside sources, of which domestic and industrial sources contributed 37 and 31%, respectively. In August, as much as 40% of the PM10 concentrations came from regional sources, of which approximately 41% came from industry and 31% from power plants. However, the synchronous analysis of the hourly concentrations, regional contributions, and wind vectors indicates that in the heaviest pollution periods the local emission sources play a more important role. The implications are that long-term control strategies should be based on regional-scale collaborations, and that emission abatement of local sources may be more effective in lowering the PM10 concentration levels on the heavy pollution days. Better air quality can be attained during the Olympics by placing effective emission controls on the local sources in Beijing and by controlling emissions from industry and power plants in the surrounding regions.

Air pollution and public health: a guidance document for risk managers

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Series on Air Quality Management (2001-2006), as well as the results of supporting international research. The topics covered in the guidance document reflect critical science and policy aspects of air quality risk management including i) health effects, ii) air quality emissions, measurement and modeling, iii) air quality management interventions, and iv) clean air policy challenges and opportunities.

Intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia and its consequences

The intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia is a crucial issue for air quality concerns in countries downwind of the significant emissions and concentrations of pollutants occurring in this important region of the world. Since the lifetimes of some important pollutants are long enough to be transported over long distance in the troposphere, regional control strategies for air pollution in downwind countries might be ineffective without considering the effects of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia. Field campaigns provide strong evidence for the intercontinental transport of Asian pollutants. They, together with ground-based observations and model simulations, show that the air quality over parts of North America is being affected by the pollutants transported from Asia. This paper examines the current understanding of the intercontinental transport of gases and aerosols from Asia and resulting effects on air quality, and on the regional and global climate system.

Can Breath Isoprene Be Measured by Ozone Chemiluminescence?

Isoprene, involved in the biosynthetic pathway to cholesterol, is the prevalent hydrocarbon in breath. Breath isoprene measurement is of great interest as a measure of basal cholesterol production rate. We investigated the merits and pitfalls of isoprene measurement via its chemiluminescence (CL) reaction with ozone. For many subjects, apparent concentrations measured are higher than those obtained by a gas chromatography (GC) reference method that can be traced to ozone-induced CL with simultaneously present lower olefins and sulfur compounds. A warm column preconcentration method eliminates the lower olefins and greatly improves sensitivity while a silver-form, ion-exchange resin can remove the sulfur gases. The breath sample is captured on a miniature synthetic carbon sorbent column maintained at 55 degrees C, under which conditions ethylene, propylene, and water vapor are not significantly captured while the preconcentration process greatly improves the limit of detection for isoprene to 0.6 ppbv (S/N=3). The captured isoprene is released by heating the column to 150 degrees C. Breath samples from different subjects were collected both before and after meals and analyzed in a double-blind fashion in two laboratories, with the second laboratory performing quantitation by cryofocusing GC-flame ionization detection with parallel measurement by mass spectrometry to provide identity confirmation. For all individuals studied, the CL and the GC results agreed when both warm column preconcentration and passage through Ag+-form cation-exchange resin, which removes divalent sulfur gases, were implemented prior to CL measurement. The intensity of CL from the reaction with ozone can be much higher for some sulfur gases than for isoprene. Even though present at lower concentrations than isoprene, unless removed prior to CL measurement, for some individuals sulfur gases can cause unacceptably large (up to 500%) errors, making the sulfur gas removal step critical.

Summertime ambient formaldehyde in five U.S. metropolitan areas: Nashville, Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, and Tampa

First, we briefly review the atmospheric chemistry and previous intercomparison measurements for HCHO, with special reference to the diffusion scrubber Hantzsch reaction based fluorescence instrument used in the field studies reported herein. Then we discuss summertime HCHO levels in five major U.S. cities measured over 1999-2002, primarily from ground-based measurements. Land-sea breeze circulations play a major role in observed concentrations in coastal cities. Very high HCHO peak mixing ratios were observed in Houston (>47 ppb) where the overall median mixing ratio was 3.3 ppb; the corresponding values in Atlanta were approximately >18 and 7.9 ppb, respectively. The peak and median mixing ratios (9.3 and 2.3 ppb) were the lowest for Tampa, where the land-sea breeze also played an important role. In several cities, replicate HCHO measurements were made by direct spectroscopic instruments; the instruments were located kilometers from each other and addressed very different heights (e.g., 106 vs 10 m). Even under these conditions, there was remarkable qualitative and often quantitative agreement between the different instruments, when they were all sampling the same air mass within a short period of each other. Local chemistry dominates how HCHO is formed and dissipated. The high concentrations in Houston resulted from emissions near the ship channel; the same formaldehyde plume was measured at two sites and clearly ranged over tens of kilometers. Local micrometeorology is another factor. HCHO patterns measured at a high-rise site in downtown Nashville were very much in synchrony with other ground sites 12 km away until July 4 celebrations whence HCHO concentrations at the downtown site remained elevated for several days and nights. The formation and dissipation of HCHO in the different cities are discussed in terms of other concurrently measured species and meteorological vectors. The vertical profiles of HCHO in and around Tampa under several different atmospheric conditions are presented. The extensive data set represented in this paper underscores that urban HCHO measurements can now be made easily; the agreement between disparate instruments (that are independently calibrated or rely on the absolute absorption cross section) further indicates that such measurements can be done reliably and accurately for this very important atmospheric species. The data set presented here can be used as a benchmark for future measurements if the use of formaldehyde precursors such as methanol or methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) as oxygenated fuel additives increases in the future.

Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions

We use space-based observations of NO2 columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) to derive monthly top-down NOx emissions for 2000 via inverse modeling with the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Top-down NOx sources are partitioned among fuel combustion (fossil fuel and biofuel), biomass burning and soils by exploiting the spatio-temporal distribution of remotely sensed fires and a priori information on the location of regions dominated by fuel combustion. The top-down inventory is combined with an a priori inventory to obtain an optimized a posteriori estimate of the relative roles of NOx sources. The resulting a posteriori fuel combustion inventory (25.6 TgN year(-1)) agrees closely with the a priori (25.4 TgN year(-1)), and errors are reduced by a factor of 2, from +/- 80% to +/- 40%. Regionally, the largest differences are found over Japan and South Africa, where a posteriori estimates are 25% larger than a priori. A posteriori fuel combustion emissions are aseasonal, with the exception of East Asia and Europe where winter emissions are 30-40% larger relative to summer emissions, consistent with increased energy use during winter for heating. Global a posteriori biomass burning emissions in 2000 resulted in 5.8 TgN (compared to 5.9 TgN year(-1) in the a priori), with Africa accounting for half of this total. A posteriori biomass burning emissions over Southeast Asia/India are decreased by 46% relative to a priori; but over North equatorial Africa they are increased by 50%. A posteriori estimates of soil emissions (8.9 TgN year(-1)) are 68% larger than a priori (5.3 TgN year(-1)). The a posteriori inventory displays the largest soil emissions over tropical savanna/woodland ecosystems (Africa), as well as over agricultural regions in the western U.S. (Great Plains), southern Europe (Spain, Greece, Turkey), and Asia (North China Plain and North India), consistent with field measurements. Emissions over these regions are highest during summer at mid-latitudes and during the rainy season in the Tropics. We estimate that 2.5-4.5 TgN year(-1) are emitted from N-fertilized soils, at the upper end of previous estimates. Soil and biomass burning emissions account for 22% and 14% of global surface NOx emissions, respectively. We infer a significant role for soil NOx emissions at northern mid-latitudes during summer, where they account for nearly half that of the fuel combustion source, a doubling relative to the a priori. The contribution of soil emissions to background ozone is thus likely to be underestimated by the current generation of chemical transport models.