Understanding the Simulated Ammonia Increasing Trend from 2008 to 2015 over Europe with CHIMERE and Comparison with IASI Observations

The objective of this study is to assess and understand the NH3 recent trends and to identify the key components driving its concentrations. We have simulated the seasonal cycle, the interannual variability, and the trends in NH3 vertical column densities (VCD) from 2008 to 2015 over Europe, with the CHIMERE regional chemistry–transport model. We have also confronted the simulations against the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite observations. IASI often shows a strong maximum in summer in addition to the spring peak, whereas CHIMERE only shows a slight peak in summer some years. This result could point to a misrepresentation of the temporal profile of the NH3 emissions, i.e., to missing emission sources during summertime either due to more than expected fertilizer use or to increased volatilization under warmer conditions. The simulated NH3 VCDs present an increasing trend over continental Europe (+2.7 ± 1.0 %/yr) but also at the national scale for Spain, Germany, UK, France, and Poland. Sensitivity tests indicate that these simulated positive trends are mainly due to (i) the trends in NH3 emissions, found heterogeneous in the EMEP NH3 emissions with strong disparities depending on the country, and (ii) the negative trends in NOx and SOx emissions. The impact of reductions in NO2 and SO2 emissions on NH3 concentrations should therefore be taken into account in future policies. This simulated NH3 VCD increase at the European scale is confirmed by IASI-v3R satellite observations in spring and summer, when ammonia emissions strongly contribute to the annual budget in accordance with crop requirements. Nevertheless, there are remaining differences about the significance and magnitude between the simulated and observed trends at the national scale, and it warrants further investigation.

Quantification of Atmospheric Ammonia Concentrations: A Review of Its Measurement and Modeling

Ammonia (NH3), the most prevalent alkaline gas in the atmosphere, plays a significant role in PM2.5 formation, atmospheric chemistry, and new particle formation. This paper reviews quantification of [NH3] through measurements, satellite-remote-sensing, and modeling reported in over 500 publications towards synthesizing the current knowledge of [NH3], focusing on spatiotemporal variations, controlling processes, and quantification issues. Most measurements are through regional passive sampler networks. [NH3] hotspots are typically over agricultural regions, such as the Midwest US and the North China Plain, with elevated concentrations reaching monthly averages of 20 and 74 ppbv, respectively. Topographical effects dramatically increase [NH3] over the Indo-Gangetic Plains, North India and San Joaquin Valley, US. Measurements are sparse over oceans, where [NH3] ≈ a few tens of pptv, variations of which can affect aerosol formation. Satellite remote-sensing (AIRS, CrIS, IASI, TANSO-FTS, TES) provides global [NH3] quantification in the column and at the surface since 2002. Modeling is crucial for improving understanding of NH3 chemistry and transport, its spatiotemporal variations, source apportionment, exploring physicochemical mechanisms, and predicting future scenarios. GEOS-Chem (global) and FRAME (UK) models are commonly applied for this. A synergistic approach of measurements↔satellite-inference↔modeling is needed towards improved understanding of atmospheric ammonia, which is of concern from the standpoint of human health and the ecosystem.

Nitrogen Deposition on Danish Nature

Eutrophication events are frequent in Inner Danish waters and critical loads are exceeded for much of the Danish sensitive terrestrial ecosystems. The Danish air quality monitoring program combines measurements and model calculations to benefit from the complementarities in data from these two sources. Measurements describe actual status, seasonal variation, and temporal trends. Model calculations extrapolate the results to the entire country and determine depositions to specific ecosystems. Measurements in 2016 show annual depositions between 7.5 and 11 kg N/ha to terrestrial ecosystems, and a load to marine waters of 5.3 kg N/ha. The deposition on Danish marine waters in 2016 was calculated to be 73,000 tons N with an average deposition of 6.9 kg N/ha. For terrestrial areas, the deposition was calculated to be 57,000 tons N with an average deposition of 13 kg N/ha. This is above critical loads for sensitive ecosystems. Long-term trends show a 35% decrease since 1990 in measured annual nitrogen deposition. At two out of four stations in nature areas, measured ammonia levels exceeded critical levels for lichens and mosses. Conclusions: Nitrogen loads and levels to Danish nature is decreasing, but critical loads and levels are still exceeded for sensitive ecosystems. Combining measurements and model calculations is a strong tool in monitoring.

A simple model for screening the local impacts of atmospheric ammonia

The dry deposition of ammonia from the atmosphere to the surface can lead to eutrophication of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. A large proportion of the ammonia emitted from agricultural sources can be deposited within a few kilometres and, therefore, impacts of ammonia dry deposition often occur near to the source. To assess these impacts, short-range atmospheric dispersion models are often applied to simulate the emission, dispersion and deposition of ammonia. However, these models can be time-consuming to run and often require detailed input data and, therefore, for multiple assessments it is useful to have a method of screening to discard scenarios where impacts are expected to be negligible. The SCAIL model (Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits) has been developed for this purpose. SCAIL estimates the atmospheric concentration and dry deposition at the nearest edge of a sensitive ecosystem (receptor) downwind of an ammonia source. These estimates are calculated based on simple meteorological data, the emission rate of the source, land cover type and distance to the receptor. Analysis of the model predictions showed that uncertainty in the model input data leads to an uncertainty in concentration and dry deposition estimates of 25-30% and 40-45% respectively. Detailed atmospheric dispersion models will also have similar uncertainties since they use similar types of input data. Comparison of the concentration predictions with previous measurements made around eight farms showed that the model significantly underestimated concentrations although the model performance was similar to existing screening techniques. The measurement dataset was used to calibrate the SCAIL model which subsequently performed better, using independent verification data, than existing models calibrated in a similar way. The benefits of the SCAIL model are already being seen in the UK, where it is used to screen farms for potential impacts on statutory nature conservation areas.

MEAD: an interdisciplinary study of the marine effects of atmospheric deposition in the Kattegat

This paper summarises the results of the EU funded MEAD project, an interdisciplinary study of the effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on the Kattegat Sea between Denmark and Sweden. The study considers emissions of reactive nitrogen gases, their transport, transformations, deposition and effects on algal growth together with management options to reduce these effects. We conclude that atmospheric deposition is an important source of fixed nitrogen to the region particularly in summer, when nitrogen is the limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth, and contributes to the overall eutrophication pressures in this region. However, we also conclude that it is unlikely that atmospheric deposition can, on its own, induce algal blooms in this region. A reduction of atmospheric nitrogen loads to this region will require strategies to reduce emissions of ammonia from local agriculture and Europe wide reductions in nitrous oxide emissions.