Hybrid predictor for ground-motion intensity with machine learning and conventional ground motion prediction equation

The use of strongly biased data generally leads to large distortions in a trained machine learning model. We face this problem when constructing a predictor for earthquake-generated ground-motion intensity with machine learning. The machine learning predictor constructed in this study has an underestimation problem for strong motions, although the data fit on relatively weak ground motions is good. This underestimation problem is caused by the strong bias in available ground-motion records; there are few records of strong motions in the dataset. Therefore, we propose a hybrid approach of machine learning and conventional ground-motion prediction equation. This study demonstrates that this hybrid approach machine learning technology and physical model reduces the underestimation of strong motions and leads to better prediction than either of the individual approaches applied alone.

Extrinsic Elastic Anisotropy in a Compositionally Heterogeneous Earth's Mantle

Several theoretical studies indicate that a substantial fraction of the measured seismic anisotropy could be interpreted as extrinsic anisotropy associated with compositional layering in rocks, reducing the significance of strain-induced intrinsic anisotropy. Here we quantify the potential contribution of grain-scale and rock-scale compositional anisotropy to the observations by (i) combining effective medium theories with realistic estimates of mineral isotropic elastic properties and (ii) measuring velocities of synthetic seismic waves propagating through modeled strain-induced microstructures. It is shown that for typical mantle and oceanic crust subsolidus compositions, rock-scale compositional layering does not generate any substantial extrinsic anisotropy (<1%) because of the limited contrast in isotropic elastic moduli among different rocks. Quasi-laminated structures observed in subducting slabs using P and S wave scattering are often invoked as a source of extrinsic anisotropy, but our calculations show that they only generate minor seismic anisotropy (<0.1-0.2% of Vp and Vs radial anisotropy). More generally, rock-scale compositional layering, when present, cannot be detected with seismic anisotropy studies but mainly with wave scattering. In contrast, when grain-scale layering is present, significant extrinsic anisotropy could exist in vertically limited levels of the mantle such as in a mid-ocean ridge basalt-rich lower transition zone or in the uppermost lower mantle where foliated basalts and pyrolites display up to 2-3% Vp and 3-6% Vs radial anisotropy. Thus, seismic anisotropy observed around the 660-km discontinuity could be possibly related to grain-scale shape-preferred orientation. Extrinsic anisotropy can form also in a compositionally homogeneous mantle, where velocity variations associated with major phase transitions can generate up to 1% of positive radial anisotropy.

Determination of intrinsic attenuation in the oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere system

We recorded P and S waves traveling through the oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere system (LAS) using broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the northwest Pacific, and we quantitatively separated the intrinsic (anelastic) and extrinsic (scattering) attenuation effects on seismic wave propagation to directly infer the thermomechanical properties of the oceanic LAS. The strong intrinsic attenuation in the asthenosphere obtained at higher frequency (~3 hertz) is comparable to that constrained at lower frequency (~100 seconds) by surface waves and suggests frequency-independent anelasticity, whereas the intrinsic attenuation in the lithosphere is frequency dependent. This difference in frequency dependence indicates that the strong and broad peak dissipation recently observed in the laboratory exists only in the asthenosphere and provides new insight into what distinguishes the asthenosphere from the lithosphere.

Rupture, waves and earthquakes

Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

Linking mantle upwelling with the lithosphere descent [corrected] and the Japan Sea evolution: a hypothesis

Recent seismic tomography studies image a low velocity zone (interpreted as a high temperature anomaly) in the mantle beneath the subducting Pacific plate near the Japanese islands at the depth of about 400 km. This thermal feature is rather peculiar in terms of the conventional view of mantle convection and subduction zones. Here we present a dynamic restoration of the thermal state of the mantle beneath this region assimilating geophysical, geodetic, and geological data up to 40 million years. We hypothesise that the hot mantle upwelling beneath the Pacific plate partly penetrated through the subducting plate into the mantle wedge and generated two smaller hot upwellings, which contributed to the rapid subsidence in the basins of the Japan Sea and to back-arc spreading. Another part of the hot mantle migrated upward beneath the Pacific lithosphere, and the presently observed hot anomaly is a remnant part of this mantle upwelling.

Seismic Evidence for Deep-Water Transportation in the Mantle

We report seismic evidence for the transportation of water into the deep mantle in the subduction zone beneath northeastern Japan. Our data indicate that water is released from the hydrated oceanic crust at shallow depths (< approximately 100 kilometers) and then forms a channel of hydrated mantle material on top of the subducting plate that is the pathway for water into the deep mantle. Our result provides direct evidence that shows how water is transported from the ocean to the deep mantle in a cold subduction zone environment.