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Huang YY, Chen TR, Lai KP, Kuo CY, Ho MJ, Hsieh HJ, Hsin YC, Chen CA. Poleward migration of tropical corals inhibited by future trends of seawater temperature and calcium carbonate (CaCO 3) saturation. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 929:172562. [PMID: 38641098 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/16/2024] [Indexed: 04/21/2024]
Abstract
Poleward range expansion of marine organisms is commonly attributed to anthropogenic ocean warming. However, the extent to which a single species can migrate poleward remains unclear. In this study, we used molecular data to examine the current distribution of the Pocillopora damicornis species complex in Taiwan waters and applied niche modeling to predict its potential range through the end of the 21st Century. The P. damicornis species complex is widespread across shallow, tropical and subtropical waters of the Indo-Pacific regions. Our results revealed that populations from subtropical nonreefal coral communities are P. damicornis, whose native geographical ranges are approximately between 23°N and 35°N. In contrast, those from tropical reefs are P. acuta. Our analysis of 50 environmental data layers demonstrated that the concentrations of CaCO3 polymorphs had the greatest contributions to the distributions of the two species. Future projections under intermediate shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and very high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions showed that while sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms would shift northwards, saturation isolines of two CaCO3 polymorphs, calcite (Ωcal) and aragonite (Ωarag), would shift southwards by 2100. Subsequent predictions of future suitable habitats under those conditions indicated that distinct delimitation of geographical ranges for the two species would persist, and neither would extend beyond its native geographical zones, indicating that tropical Taiwan waters are the northern limit for P. acuta. In contrast, subtropical waters are the southern limit for P. damicornis. We concluded that the decline in CaCO3 saturation would make high latitudes less inhabitable, which could be one of the boundary elements that limit poleward range expansion driven by rising SSTs and preserve the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) on Earth. Consequently, poleward migration of tropical reef corals to cope with warming oceans should be reevaluated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ya-Yi Huang
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ting-Ru Chen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Kim Phuong Lai
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
| | - Chao-Yang Kuo
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Jay Ho
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Marine Science Center-Green Island Marine Research Station, Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taitung, Taiwan
| | - Hernyi Justin Hsieh
- Penghu Marine Biology Research Center, Fisheries Research Institute, Penghu, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Chia Hsin
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
| | - Chaolun A Chen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Life Science, Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan.
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Schlaefer JA, Tebbett SB, Bellwood DR. The study of sediments on coral reefs: A hydrodynamic perspective. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2021; 169:112580. [PMID: 34102417 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
There is a rich literature on coral reef sediments. However, this knowledge is spread among research fields, and the extent to which major sediment reservoirs and reservoir connecting processes have been quantified is unclear. We examined the literature to quantify where and how sediments have been measured on coral reefs and, thereby, identified critical knowledge gaps. In most studies, sediments in one reservoir or one sedimentary process were quantified. The measurement of water column sediments (55% of reservoir measurements) and sediment trapping rates (42% of process measurements) were over-represented. In contrast, sediments on reef substrata, and the transition of sediments from the water column to the benthos, were rarely quantified. Furthermore, only ~20% of sediment measurements were accompanied by the quantification of hydrodynamic drivers. Multidisciplinary collaborative approaches offer great promise for advancing our understanding of the connections between sediment reservoirs, and the sedimentary and hydrodynamic processes that mediate these connections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jodie A Schlaefer
- Research Hub for Coral Reef Ecosystem Functions, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.
| | - Sterling B Tebbett
- Research Hub for Coral Reef Ecosystem Functions, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - David R Bellwood
- Research Hub for Coral Reef Ecosystem Functions, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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Myszka B, Hurle K, Zheng K, Wolf SE, Boccaccini AR. Mechanical improvement of calcium carbonate cements by in situ HEMA polymerization during hardening. J Mater Chem B 2019. [DOI: 10.1039/c9tb00237e] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
The brittleness of calcium carbonate-based cements, which currently impedes their exploitation, can be overcome by a straightforward polymer-reinforcement strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Myszka
- Institute of Biomaterials
- Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
- 91058 Erlangen
- Germany
| | - Katrin Hurle
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern – Mineralogy
- Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
- 91054 Erlangen
- Germany
| | - Kai Zheng
- Institute of Biomaterials
- Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
- 91058 Erlangen
- Germany
| | - Stephan E. Wolf
- Institute of Glass and Ceramics
- Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
- 91058 Erlangen
- Germany
- Interdisciplinary Center for Functional Particle Systems (FPS)
| | - Aldo R. Boccaccini
- Institute of Biomaterials
- Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
- 91058 Erlangen
- Germany
- Interdisciplinary Center for Functional Particle Systems (FPS)
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Climate Variability and Change: Monitoring Data and Evidence for Increased Coral Bleaching Stress. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-75393-5_4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
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Future Scenarios: A Review of Modelling Efforts to Predict the Future of Coral Reefs in an Era of Climate Change. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-75393-5_13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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pH homeostasis during coral calcification in a free ocean CO2 enrichment (FOCE) experiment, Heron Island reef flat, Great Barrier Reef. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:13219-24. [PMID: 26438833 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1505586112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Geochemical analyses (δ(11)B and Sr/Ca) are reported for the coral Porites cylindrica grown within a free ocean carbon enrichment (FOCE) experiment, conducted on the Heron Island reef flat (Great Barrier Reef) for a 6-mo period from June to early December 2010. The FOCE experiment was designed to simulate the effects of CO2-driven acidification predicted to occur by the end of this century (scenario RCP4.5) while simultaneously maintaining the exposure of corals to natural variations in their environment under in situ conditions. Analyses of skeletal growth (measured from extension rates and skeletal density) showed no systematic differences between low-pH FOCE treatments (ΔpH = ∼-0.05 to -0.25 units below ambient) and present day controls (ΔpH = 0) for calcification rates or the pH of the calcifying fluid (pHcf); the latter was derived from boron isotopic compositions (δ(11)B) of the coral skeleton. Furthermore, individual nubbins exhibited near constant δ(11)B compositions along their primary apical growth axes (±0.02 pHcf units) regardless of the season or treatment. Thus, under the highly dynamic conditions of the Heron Island reef flat, P. cylindrica up-regulated the pH of its calcifying fluid (pHcf ∼8.4-8.6), with each nubbin having near-constant pHcf values independent of the large natural seasonal fluctuations of the reef flat waters (pH ∼7.7 to ∼8.3) or the superimposed FOCE treatments. This newly discovered phenomenon of pH homeostasis during calcification indicates that coral living in highly dynamic environments exert strong physiological controls on the carbonate chemistry of their calcifying fluid, implying a high degree of resilience to ocean acidification within the investigated ranges.
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de Vries P, Tamis JE, Foekema EM, Klok C, Murk AJ. Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2013; 73:516-523. [PMID: 23850125 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.06.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2012] [Revised: 06/11/2013] [Accepted: 06/18/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO2 levels and related considerations of geological CO2 storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO2 levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO2 levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pepijn de Vries
- Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies (IMARES), Maritime and Experimental Ecology Departments, P.O. Box 57, 1780 AB Den Helder, The Netherlands.
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Andersson AJ, Gledhill D. Ocean acidification and coral reefs: effects on breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification. ANNUAL REVIEW OF MARINE SCIENCE 2013; 5:321-48. [PMID: 22881351 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The persistence of carbonate structures on coral reefs is essential in providing habitats for a large number of species and maintaining the extraordinary biodiversity associated with these ecosystems. As a consequence of ocean acidification (OA), the ability of marine calcifiers to produce calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)) and their rate of CaCO(3) production could decrease while rates of bioerosion and CaCO(3) dissolution could increase, resulting in a transition from a condition of net accretion to one of net erosion. This would have negative consequences for the role and function of coral reefs and the eco-services they provide to dependent human communities. In this article, we review estimates of bioerosion, CaCO(3) dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and how these processes will change in response to OA. Furthermore, we critically evaluate the observed relationships between NEC and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ω(a)). Finally, we propose that standardized NEC rates combined with observed changes in the ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon to total alkalinity owing to net reef metabolism may provide a biogeochemical tool to monitor the effects of OA in coral reef environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas J Andersson
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, CA, USA.
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Pörtner HO, Schulte PM, Wood CM, Schiemer F. Niche dimensions in fishes: an integrative view. Physiol Biochem Zool 2010; 83:808-26. [PMID: 20704490 DOI: 10.1086/655977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Current shifts in ecosystem composition and function emphasize the need for an understanding of the links between environmental factors and organism fitness and tolerance. The examples discussed here illustrate how recent progress in the field of comparative physiology may provide a better mechanistic understanding of the ecological concepts of the fundamental and realized niches and thus provide insights into the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Here we argue that, as a link between physiological and ecological indicators of organismal performance, the mechanisms shaping aerobic scope and passive tolerance set the dimensions of an animal's niche, here defined as its capacity to survive, grow, behave, and interact with other species. We demonstrate how comparative studies of cod or killifish populations in a latitudinal cline have unraveled mitochondrial mechanisms involved in establishing a species' niche, performance, and energy budget. Riverine fish exemplify how the performance windows of various developmental stages follow the dynamic regimes of both seasonal temperatures and river hydrodynamics, as synergistic challenges. Finally, studies of species in extreme environments, such as the tilapia of Lake Magadi, illustrate how on evolutionary timescales functional and morphological shifts can occur, associated with new specializations. We conclude that research on the processes and time course of adaptations suitable to overcome current niche limits is urgently needed to assess the resilience of species and ecosystems to human impact, including the challenges of global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- H O Pörtner
- Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven D-27515, Germany.
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MORTON SR, HOEGH-GULDBERG O, LINDENMAYER DB, OLSON MHARRISS, HUGHES L, McCULLOCH MT, McINTYRE S, NIX HA, PROBER SM, SAUNDERS DA, ANDERSEN AN, BURGMAN MA, LEFROY EC, LONSDALE WM, LOWE I, McMICHAEL AJ, PARSLOW JS, STEFFEN W, WILLIAMS JE, WOINARSKI JCZ. The big ecological questions inhibiting effective environmental management in Australia. AUSTRAL ECOL 2009. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2008.01938.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Donner SD, Heron SF, Skirving WJ. Future Scenarios: a Review of Modelling Efforts to Predict the Future of Coral Reefs in an Era of Climate Change. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-69775-6_10] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
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13
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Stanley GD, van de Schootbrugge B. The Evolution of the Coral–Algal Symbiosis. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-69775-6_2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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14
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Lough JM, van Oppen MJH. Introduction: Coral Bleaching — Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-69775-6_1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
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Eakin CM, Lough JM, Heron SF. Climate Variability and Change: Monitoring Data and Evidence for Increased Coral Bleaching Stress. ECOLOGICAL STUDIES 2009. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-69775-6_4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Yellowlees D, Rees TAV, Leggat W. Metabolic interactions between algal symbionts and invertebrate hosts. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2008; 31:679-94. [PMID: 18315536 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3040.2008.01802.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 257] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Some invertebrates have enlisted autotrophic unicellular algae to provide a competitive metabolic advantage in nutritionally demanding habitats. These symbioses exist primarily but not exclusively in shallow tropical oceanic waters where clear water and low nutrient levels provide maximal advantage to the association. Mostly, the endosymbiotic algae are localized in host cells surrounded by a host-derived membrane (symbiosome). This anatomy has required adaptation of the host biochemistry to allow transport of the normally excreted inorganic nutrients (CO2, NH3 and PO43-) to the alga. In return, the symbiont supplies photosynthetic products to the host to meet its energy demands. Most attention has focused on the metabolism of CO2 and nitrogen sources. Carbon-concentrating mechanisms are a feature of all algae, but the products exported to the host following photosynthetic CO2 fixation vary. Identification of the stimulus for release of algal photosynthate in hospite remains elusive. Nitrogen assimilation within the symbiosis is an essential element in the host's control over the alga. Recent studies have concentrated on cnidarians because of the impact of global climate change resulting in coral bleaching. The loss of the algal symbiont and its metabolic contribution to the host has the potential to result in the transition from a coral-dominated to an algal-dominated ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Yellowlees
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and School of Pharmacy & Molecular Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
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Middlebrook R, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Leggat W. The effect of thermal history on the susceptibility of reef-building corals to thermal stress. J Exp Biol 2008; 211:1050-6. [DOI: 10.1242/jeb.013284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 201] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
SUMMARYThe mutualistic relationship between corals and their unicellular dinoflagellate symbionts (Symbiodinium sp.) is a fundamental component within the ecology of coral reefs. Thermal stress causes the breakdown of the relationship between corals and their symbionts (bleaching). As with other organisms, this symbiosis may acclimate to changes in the environment, thereby potentially modifying the environmental threshold at which they bleach. While a few studies have examined the acclimation capacity of reef-building corals, our understanding of the underlying mechanism is still in its infancy. The present study focused on the role of recent thermal history in influencing the response of both corals and symbionts to thermal stress, using the reef-building coral Acropora aspera. The symbionts of corals that were exposed to 31°C for 48 h (pre-stress treatment) 1 or 2 weeks prior to a 6-day simulated bleaching event (when corals were exposed to 34°C) were found to have more effective photoprotective mechanisms. These mechanisms included changes in non-photochemical quenching and xanthophyll cycling. These differences in photoprotection were correlated with decreased loss of symbionts, with those corals that were not prestressed performing significantly worse, losing over 40% of their symbionts and having a greater reduction in photosynthetic efficiency. These results are important in that they show that thermal history, in addition to light history, can influence the response of reef-building corals to thermal stress and therefore have implications for the modeling of bleaching events. However, whether acclimation is capable of modifying the thermal threshold of corals sufficiently to cope as sea temperatures increase in response to global warming has not been fully explored. Clearly increases in sea temperatures that extend beyond 1–2°C will exhaust the extent to which acclimation can modify the thermal threshold of corals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachael Middlebrook
- Centre for Marine Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
- Centre for Marine Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - William Leggat
- Centre for Marine Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
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Lough JM. 10th Anniversary Review: a changing climate for coral reefs. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008; 10:21-9. [DOI: 10.1039/b714627m] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Parmesan C. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2006. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5305] [Impact Index Per Article: 294.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Camille Parmesan
- Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712;
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Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2005; 11:2251-2265. [PMID: 34991281 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 200] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon D Donner
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, 410a Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
| | - William J Skirving
- Queensland Science and Engineering Consultants, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, 410a Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
- Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072 QLD, Australia
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