The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Supported by theory, observations, and modeling, this causes a shift in mean TC intensity, which tends to manifest most clearly at the greatest intensities. The Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing damage based on the wind intensity of TCs was introduced in the early 1970s and remains the most commonly used metric for public communication of the level of wind hazard that a TC poses. Because the scale is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond 70 m/s. This may be considered a weakness of the scale, particularly considering that the destructive potential of the wind increases exponentially. Here, we consider how this weakness becomes amplified in a warming world by elucidating the past and future increases of peak wind speeds in the most intense TCs. A simple extrapolation of the Saffir-Simpson scale is used to define a hypothetical category 6, and we describe the frequency of TCs, both past and projected under global warming, that would fall under this category. We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm.

Analysis of synoptic weather patterns of heatwave events

Heatwaves (HWs) are expected to increase both in duration and intensity in the next decades, but little is known about their synoptic and mesoscalar behavior, which is especially important in mid-latitude regions. Most climate research has focused on temperature analysis to characterize HWs. We propose that a combination of temperature and synoptic patterns is a better way to define and understand HWs because including atmospheric circulation patterns provides information about different HW structures that can irregularly affect the territory, and illustrate this approach at the regional and urban scales using the Iberian Peninsula and the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona as case studies. We first select HW events from 1950 to 2020 and apply a multivariate analysis to identify synoptic patterns based on mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and maximum daily 2 m temperature. The results indicate that four synoptic patterns reproduce at least 50% of the variance in HWs, namely, "stationary and stable", "dynamic and advective", "stationary and advective", and "dynamic, advective and undulated". Next, we apply the analysis to the Representative Concentration Pathway future scenarios (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to determine how these synoptic trends can change in the future. The analysis shows that the four synoptic patterns continue to explain 55 to 60% of the variance in HWs. Future HW events will be characterized by an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa due to the northward shift of the anticyclonic ridge. This is especially true for RCP8.5, which simulates business as usual incrementing fossil fuel use and additionally shows an increase in atmospheric dynamism in north advections from all directions in comparison with RCP4.5. These findings point to the importance of considering the geopotential height in HW prediction, as well as the direction of advections.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06828-1.

Radioisotopes demonstrate changes in global atmospheric circulation possibly caused by global warming

In this paper, we present a new method to study global atmospheric processes and their changes during the last decade. A cosmogenic radionuclide measured at ground-level, beryllium-7, is utilized as a proxy to study atmospheric dynamics. Beryllium-7 has two advantages: First, this radionuclide, primarily created in the lower stratosphere, attaches to aerosols that are transported downwards to the troposphere and travel around the globe with the general atmospheric circulation. By monitoring these particles, we can provide a global, simple, and sustainable way to track processes such as multi-annual variation of the troposphere, tropopause heightening, position and speed of atmospheric interface zones, as well as the poleward movement and stalling patterns of jet streams. Second, beryllium-7 is a product of cosmic rays which are themselves directly linked to solar activity and the earth magnetic field. This study shows whether beryllium-7 observed concentration changes are correlated with such natural processes or independent of them. Our work confirms that major changes in the atmospheric circulation are currently ongoing, even though timeseries are too short to make climatological assessments. We provide solid evidence of significant and progressive changes of the global atmospheric circulation as well as modifications of tropopause heights over the past decade. As the last decade happened to be the warmest on record, this analysis also indicates that the observed changes are, at least to some extent, attributable to global warming.

Hypothesis generation in climate research with interactive visual data exploration

One of the most prominent topics in climate research is the investigation, detection, and allocation of climate change. In this paper, we aim at identifying regions in the atmosphere (e.g., certain height layers) which can act as sensitive and robust indicators for climate change. We demonstrate how interactive visual data exploration of large amounts of multi-variate and time-dependent climate data enables the steered generation of promising hypotheses for subsequent statistical evaluation. The use of new visualization and interaction technology--in the context of a coordinated multiple views framework--allows not only to identify these promising hypotheses, but also to efficiently narrow down parameters that are required in the process of computational data analysis. Two datasets, namely an ECHAM5 climate model run and the ERA-40 reanalysis incorporating observational data, are investigated. Higher-order information such as linear trends or signal-to-noise ratio is derived and interactively explored in order to detect and explore those regions which react most sensitively to climate change. As one conclusion from this study, we identify an excellent potential for usefully generalizing our approach to other, similar application cases, as well.

Climate change and groundwater: a short review

There is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon. This will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrological cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. The available climate scenarios indicate areas where rainfall may increase or diminish, but the final outcome with respect to man and environment will, generally, be detrimental. Groundwater will be vital to alleviate some of the worst drought situations. The paper analyses the main methods for studying the relationships between climate change and groundwater, and presents the main areas in which hydrogeological research should focus in order to mitigate the likely impacts.

Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Changes in tropopause height for the Eurasian region determined from CARDS radiosonde data

Previous studies have identified the tropopause height (TH) as a promising fingerprint of climatic change. In the present paper, we report variations in TH for the Eurasian region over the period 1973-1998 and analyse the influence of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) on these variations. As previous studies indicate that the greatest increases in TH occur in the extratropics, we focused our attention on this area. We applied a set of homogenization procedures to radiosonde data and considered three different scenarios that take into account change points and the main volcanic eruptions over the study period. Our results demonstrate that the number of stations with positive TH trends is very sensitive to the quality of data and the methods used to remove inhomogeneities. Consequently, when change points were included in the analysis, the number of stations with positive trends decreased markedly. Furthermore, stratospheric NAM appears to control TH in stations located at latitudes higher than 55 degrees N.

Stratospheric cooling and the troposphere

Satellite observations of tropospheric temperatures seem to show less warming than surface temperatures, contrary to physical predictions. Fu et al. show that statistical correction for the effect of stratospheric cooling brings the satellite-based estimates of tropospheric warming into closer agreement with observations of surface warming. Here we apply the method of Fu et al. to output from a state-of-the-art coupled climate model and show that simulated tropospheric temperature trends are consistent with those observed and that their method is robust.