The relationship between crustal deformation characteristics and strong earthquakes in western China revealed by GNSS

To clarify the relationship between GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) crustal deformation and the preparation of strong earthquakes in the western Chinese Mainland, a series of methods including velocity field, strain rate field, and strain parameter time series are adopted based on the GNSS observation data from the CMONOC (Crustal Movement Observation Network of China). The abnormal characteristics of crustal deformation movement before the M ≥ 5 earthquakes in the area since 1999 are studied. The corresponding variety of the crustal movement before earthquakes is discussed in combination with the seismogenic structure of earthquakes. The abnormalities of the GNSS velocity field, strain field, and strain parameter time series before earthquakes with different magnitudes are proposed. Finally, the anomaly criterion before medium-strong-large earthquakes in the western Chinese Mainland is proposed according to the GNSS and its combination with the characteristics of geological structure. The results can provide a basis for the forecasting of the trend and location of medium-strong-large earthquakes in the western Chinese Mainland.

Variability in interseismic strain accumulation rate and style along the Altyn Tagh Fault

Major strike-slip faults that develop between strong and weaker regions are thought to focus along narrow shear zones at the rheological boundary. Here we present the InSAR-derived velocity field spanning almost the entire length of one such fault, the 1600 km-long Altyn Tagh Fault (ATF), and analyse the strain distribution. We find that localisation of strain is actually variable, in contrast to other major strike-slip faults that show little variation, with strain concentrated at the fault for some sections and distributed over broad (>100 km) shear zones for others. Slip rate along the ATF is also variable, decreasing along the fault from 11.6 ± 1.6 mm/yr in the west to 7.2 ± 1.4 mm/yr in the central portion, before increasing again to 11.7  ± 0.9 mm/yr over the eastern portion. We show that the variable shear zone width may be linked to geological variability and the influence of heat flow, and the results imply that sub-parallel faults play an important role in the overall deformation field. This demonstrates the significance of accurately characterising strain rates over a broad region when assessing seismic hazard.

Unfolding rotational tectonics and topographic evolution from localized verses diffuse plate boundary counterparts

We present a kinematic model developed from geodetic observations, topography analysis and analogue tectonic modelling results, which reveals a striking similarity between the rotational tectonic settings of the Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system in the Arctic, and the Central Indian Tectonic Zone within the Indian subcontinent. A crucial aspect of large-scale extensional rift systems is the gradual variation of extension along the rift axis, due to plate rotation about a Euler pole, which may lead to contraction on the opposite side of the Euler pole to form a rotational tectonic system. Our geodetic and topographic analysis, combined with the reanalysis of analogue tectonic modelling results demonstrates such rotational tectonic plate motion in both the Arctic and Indian case. However, the plate boundary between the North American and Eurasian Plates as represented by the Arctic Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system is strongly localized, whereas the Central Indian Tectonic Zone that separates the North and South India Plates involves diffuse deformation instead. Furthermore, in both the Arctic and Central Indian we find that the relative Euler rotation pole is located near an indenter-like feature, which possibly controls the present-day rotational tectonics and contrasting topography on opposite sides of the Euler pole.

The shape of the Himalayan "Arc": An Ellipse pinned by syntaxial strike-slip fault tips

Trans-Himalayan geodetic data show that, between both syntaxes, India/Asia convergence is steadily oriented ≈ N20°E. However, surface faulting near both syntaxes, along the 2005 and 1950 earthquake ruptures, imply long-term thrusting directed ≈ 130° apart, and post-LGM (last Glacial Maximum) shortening rates of ≈ 5 to 6 mm/y, ≈ 2 to 3 times slower than in Nepal (≈ 15 to 20 mm/y). Syntaxial earthquakes' return-time are also ≈ 3 times longer (>2,000 y) than in Nepal (≈ 700 y). In a structural frame centered halfway between the syntaxial cusps, the tectonic features of the range show remarkable symmetry. In map view, the overall shapes of the Main Front Thrust (MFT) and the Main Central Thrust (MCT) closely fit ellipses, with major-to-minor axis ratios of ≈ 2.5 to 3. This suggests that the range growth atop subducting India is "pinned" by the strike-slip faults that bound it to the east and west. Discrete Element Modeling corroborates a late-Tertiary elliptical range growth. This accounts for the ≈ 65° angles and twofold to threefold decrease in active thrusting between Nepal and the syntaxes, for the maximum Himalayan heights (≥8,000 m), larger magnitudes (≥8), and shorter return-time (≈ 700 y) of great earthquakes in Nepal, for the existence of two 500- to 600 km-long, south-concave mountain ranges north of both syntaxes and for the ≈ 9 mm/y, N100 to 110°E extension across southern Tibet. It also suggests that predictions of impending or frequent great earthquakes in the eastern- and westernmost Himalayas may be overstated.

Lithosphere architecture characterized by crust-mantle decoupling controls the formation of orogenic gold deposits

This study, via combined analysis of geophysical and geochemical data, reveals a lithospheric architecture characterized by crust-mantle decoupling and vertical heat-flow conduits that control orogenic gold mineralization in the Ailaoshan gold belt on the southeastern margin of Tibet. The mantle seismic tomography indicates that the crust-mantle decoupled deformation, defined from previous seismic anisotropy analysis, was formed by upwelling and lateral flow of the asthenosphere, driven by deep subduction of the Indian continent. Our magnetotelluric and seismic images show both a vertical conductor across the Moho and high Vp/Vs anomalies both in the uppermost mantle and lowest crust, suggesting that crust-mantle decoupling promotes ponding of mantle-derived basic melts at the base of the crust via a heat-flow conduit. Noble gas isotope and halogen ratios of gold-related ore minerals indicate a mantle source of ore fluid. A rapid decrease in Cl/F ratios of lamprophyres under conditions of 1.2 GPa and 1050°C suggests that the ore fluid was derived from degassing of the basic melts. Similar lithospheric architecture is recognized in other orogenic gold provinces, implying analogous formational controls.

Two-Decade GNSS Observation Processing and Analysis with the New IGS Repro3 Criteria: Implications for the Refinement of Velocity Field and Deformation Field in Continental China

Extensive observation collection, unified and rigorous data processing, and accurate construction of the station motion model are the three essential elements for the accuracy and reliability of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) velocity field. GNSS data reprocessing not only can weaken the influence of untrue nonlinear site signals caused by imperfect models but also can eliminate the displacement offset caused by frame transformation, solution strategy, and model change. Based on the new repro3 criteria of the International GNSS Service (IGS), we process rigorously GNSS observations of continental China from the period 2000 to 2020 to refine GNSS station secular velocities and analyze the present-day crustal deformation in continental China. The main contributions of this work included the followings. Firstly, the repro3 algorithm and model are used to uniformly and rigorously process the two-decade GNSS historical observations to obtain more reliable GNSS coordinate time series with mm-level precision. Combined with the historical records of major earthquakes in continental China, we build a GNSS time series model considering nonlinear factors (velocity, offset, period, co-seismic/post-seismic deformation) to extract GNSS horizontal velocity field whose root mean square (RMS) mean is 0.1 mm/a. Secondly, the GNSS horizontal grid velocity field in continental China is interpolated using the gpsgridder method (the minimum radius is set to 16, and the Poisson’s ratio is set to 0.5). Estimation and analysis of the crustal strain rate solution lead to the conclusion that the strain degree in West China (the high strain region is mainly located in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and Tianshan Mountains) is much more intense than that in the east (the main strain rate is less than 5 nstrain/year). In addition, most strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland occurred on active blocks and their boundary faults with large changes in the GNSS velocity field and strain field. Then, an improved K-means++ clustering analysis method is proposed to divide active blocks using GNSS horizontal velocity field. Furthermore, different relative motion models of different blocks are constructed using the block division results. Among them, the Eurasian block has the lowest accuracy (the RMS of residual velocity in the east and north directions are 5.60 and 9.65 mm/a, respectively), and the China block 7 has the highest accuracy (the RMS mean of relative velocity in the east and north directions are 2.60 and 2.65 mm/a, respectively). More observations (2260+ sites), longer time (20 years), and updated criteria (Repro3) are to finely obtain the GNSS velocity field in continental China, and depict crustal deformation and active block with the gpsgridder and improved K-means++ methods.

Crustal Electrical Structure of the Ganzi Fault on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the Role of Fluids in Earthquakes

The initiation and evolution of seismic activity in intraplate regions are controlled by heterogeneous stress and highly fractured rocks within the rock mass triggered by fluid migration. In this study, we imaged the electrical structure of the crust beneath the Ganzi fault using a three-dimensional magnetotelluric inversion technique, which is host to an assemblage of resistive and conductive features extending into the lower crust. It presents a near-vertical low-resistance zone that cuts through the brittle ductile transition zone, extends to the lower crust, and acts as a pathway for fluid migration from the crustal flow to the upper crustal depths. Conductors in the upper and lower crust are associated with saline fluids and 7% to 16% partial melting, respectively. The relationship between the earthquake epicenter and the surrounding electrical structure suggests that the intraplate seismicity is triggered by overpressure fluids, which are dependent on fluid volume changes generated by the decompression dehydration of partially molten material during upwelling and native fluid within the crustal flow.

Source Geometry and Causes of the 2019 Ms6.0 Changning Earthquake in Sichuan, China Based on InSAR

On 17 June 2019, an Ms6.0 earthquake occurred in Changning, Sichuan, China (Changning event), which was the largest earthquake on record within 50 km of the area. It attracted great attention as the area has the largest shale gas production in China as well as significant mineral salt production. Using the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), we extract the coseismic deformation of the Changning event and two earlier Ms > 5.0 earthquakes which occurred in the same region (16 December 2018 Ms5.7 and 3 January 2019 Ms5.3) from the Sentinel-1 and ALOS2 data. We use nonlinear and linear methods to invert the fault models of the three earthquakes based on the deformation fields. The final model shows that the Changning event was caused by a fault with left-lateral strike and thrust slip. The strike is 124.3° with a dip angle of 43.4°. The seismic moment obtained by inversion is 5.28 × 1017 Nm, corresponding to Mw 5.78. Based on the fault models, we analyze the cause of the Changning earthquake considering the local tectonic setting, Coulomb stress change, mining, and fluid injection. We consider that the event may be related to salt mining. The two earlier Ms > 5.0 earthquakes may also play an important role in advancing the Changning earthquake.

Rheology of the Northern Tibetan Plateau Lithosphere Inferred from the Post-Seismic Deformation Resulting from the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili Earthquake

Time-series observations from Sentinel-1 A/B InSAR spanning November 2014 to July 2021 were used to study the late post-seismic deformation velocity field arising from the Kokoxili earthquake. The deformation velocity caused by the interseismic slip along the major active faults in Tibet was first simulated. Comparing the simulated deformation velocity with the observed one, the maximum ratio of the simulated deformation velocity to the observed one was found to be 42%, indicating continuity in the viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake. Subsequently, the rheological structure of the Kokoxili region was explored using a mixed model comprising the viscoelastic relaxation mechanism and the buried elastic dislocation model. The best estimated viscosities for the lower crust and upper mantle were ηlc=1−0.44+0.78×1019 Pas and ηum=1+0+0.78×1020 Pas, respectively. The results obtained in this study were compared with those of previous studies that used the early post-seismic displacement ranging from 0 to 6.5 years following the earthquake. The obtained value was largely the same as the previously estimated steady-state viscosity, which means that the viscosities of the viscoelastic layer beneath the Kokoxili regions have almost reached their stable state. Furthermore, the effective lower crustal viscosity of the Kokoxili region exhibited a logarithmic trend with time.

The Current Crustal Vertical Deformation Features of the Sichuan–Yunnan Region Constrained by Fusing the Leveling Data with the GNSS Data

This study uses the least squares collocation method to fuse the leveling vertical deformation velocity in the Sichuan–Yunnan region with the GNSS observations of this region from 320 stations in the China Crustal Movement Observation Network (CMONOC) and the China Continental Tectonic Environment Monitoring Network (CMTEMN) from 1999 to 2017. Such fusion is to improve the accuracy of the vertical deformation rates in large spatial scales. The fused vertical deformation results show that: (1) the fused deformation field has a uniform spatial distribution, and shows detailed change characteristics of key regions; (2) the current vertical crustal motion in this region is featured by the contemporaneous occurrence of crustal compression, shortening and uplift and basin extensional subsidence; (3) most areas in this region experience uplifts, as the lateral push of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was blocked by the Sichuan Basin. The areas on the northwest side of the Longmenshan fault and the Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault are dominated by uplifts, with the velocity of 1.5 mm/a–5.5 mm/a, and the region on the southeast side has slight uplifts, with the velocity of 1.0 mm/a–1.5 mm/a; (4) many areas have high gradient vertical deformation, especially the region close to the Wenshan fault and on the two sides of the Yarlung Zangbo fault that has the value of 3.0–4.0 × 10−8/a, deserving further attention to be paid to the long-term earthquake hazards.

Strain-Rates from GPS Measurements in the Ordos Block, China: Implications for Geodynamics and Seismic Hazards

A number of devastating earthquakes have occurred around the Ordos Block in recent history. For the purpose of studying where the next major event will occur surrounding the Ordos Block, much work has been done, particularly in the investigation of the Earth’s surface strain rates based on GPS measurements. However, there exist striking differences between the results from different authors although they used almost the same GPS data. Therefore, we validated the method for the calculation of GPS strain rates developed by Zhu et al. (2005, 2006) and found that the method is feasible and has high precision. With this approach and the updated GPS data, we calculated the strain rates in the region around the Ordos Block. The computed results show that the total strain rates in the interior of the Block are very small, and the high values are mainly concentrated on the peripheral zones of the Ordos Block and along the large-scale active faults, such as the Haiyuan fault, which are closely aligned to the results by geological and geophysical observations. Additionally, the strain rate results demonstrated that all rifted grabens on the margin of the Ordos Block exhibit extensional deformation. Finally, based on the strain rate, seismicity, and tectonic structures, we present some areas of high earthquake risk surrounding the Ordos Block in the future, which are located on the westernmost of the Weihe Graben, both the east and westernmost of the Hetao Graben, and in the middle of the Shanxi Graben. Hence, this work is significant in contributing to a better understanding of the geodynamics and seismic hazard assessment.

Microwave Brightness Temperature (MBT) Background in Bayan Har Block, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Its Importance in Searching for Seismic MBT Anomalies

The abnormal behaviors of microwave brightness temperature (MBT) before and after some strong inland earthquakes have been studied for more than 15 years, but the normal features of MBT background in the investigated regions still lack essential attention. This study focused on the extremely seismically active Bayan Har block on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, and revealed the spatiotemporal variations of monthly mean background and monthly standard deviation (STD) of MBT by using data of 10.65 and 89 GHz from AMSR-2 instrument. In terms of space, the results revealed that the MBT backgrounds at the two frequencies both basically exhibited a negative correlation with regional altitude but were more pronounce at high frequency. They also showed different response characteristics to the properties of soil and vegetation. In terms of time, the low-frequency background exhibited a complex month-to-month variation, with auxiliary data suggesting a joint contribution of surface soil moisture (SSM) and seasonal temperature; while the high-frequency background presented good agreement only with the variation in surface temperature. Meanwhile, the monthly STD of MBT was discovered being affected by SSM at the low-frequency and by snowfall events at the high-frequency. By employing MBT data of 10.65 GHz from AMSR-E and AMSR-2 sensors, the spatiotemporal evolutions of MBT anomalies before, during and after the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake on 13 April 2010 and the Ms 7.4 Maduo earthquake on 21 May 2021 were obtained referring to dynamic monthly mean background. A typical strip-shaped positive MBT anomaly just covering the Bayan Har block was found occurring prior to the two earthquakes, and the time series of average MBT anomaly inside the block was analyzed by using multiple datasets. The typical abnormal MBT strip was discriminated being independent of non-seismic factors and regarded as a possible precursor for both earthquakes. This research uncovered the normal features of MBT background and demonstrated the common characteristics of MBT anomalies preceding two strike-slip earthquakes inside the Bayan Har block. It has instructive significance for studying, understanding and searching for seismic MBT anomalies on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Interseismic Slip and Coupling along the Haiyuan Fault Zone Constrained by InSAR and GPS Measurements

The Haiyuan fault zone is an important tectonic boundary and strong seismic activity belt in northeastern Tibet, but no major earthquake has occurred in the past ∼100 years, since the Haiyuan M8.5 event in 1920. The current state of strain accumulation and seismic potential along the fault zone have attracted significant attention. In this study, we obtained the interseismic deformation field along the Haiyuan fault zone using Envisat/ASAR data in the period 2003–2010, and inverted fault kinematic parameters including the long-term slip rate, locking degree and slip deficit distribution based on InSAR and GPS individually and jointly. The results show that there is near-surface creep in the Laohushan segment of about 19 km. The locking degree changes significantly along the strike with the western part reaching 17 km and the eastern part of 3–7 km. The long-term slip rate gradually decreases from west 4.7 mm/yr to east 2.0 mm/yr. As such, there is large strain accumulation along the western part of the fault and shallow creep along the Laohushan segment; while in the eastern section, the degree of strain accumulation is low, which suggests the rupture segments of the 1920 earthquake may have been not completely relocked.

Record of Crustal Thickening and Synconvergent Extension from the Dajiamang Tso Rift, Southern Tibet

North-trending rifts throughout south-central Tibet provide an opportunity to study the dynamics of synconvergent extension in contractional orogenic belts. In this study, we present new data from the Dajiamang Tso rift, including quantitative crustal thickness estimates calculated from trace/rare earth element zircon data, U-Pb geochronology, and zircon-He thermochronology. These data constrain the timing and rates of exhumation in the Dajiamang Tso rift and provide a basis for evaluating dynamic models of synconvergent extension. Our results also provide a semi-continuous record of Mid-Cretaceous to Miocene evolution of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogenic belt along the India-Asia suture zone. We report igneous zircon U-Pb ages of ~103 Ma and 70–42 Ma for samples collected from the Xigaze forearc basin and Gangdese Batholith/Linzizong Formation, respectively. Zircon-He cooling ages of forearc rocks in the hanging wall of the Great Counter thrust are ~28 Ma, while Gangdese arc samples in the footwalls of the Dajiamang Tso rift are 16–8 Ma. These data reveal the approximate timing of the switch from contraction to extension along the India-Asia suture zone (minimum 16 Ma). Crustal-thickness trends from zircon geochemistry reveal possible crustal thinning (to ~40 km) immediately prior to India-Eurasia collision onset (58 Ma). Following initial collision, crustal thickness increases to 50 km by 40 Ma with continued thickening until the early Miocene supported by regional data from the Tibetan Magmatism Database. Current crustal thickness estimates based on geophysical observations show no evidence for crustal thinning following the onset of E–W extension (~16 Ma), suggesting that modern crustal thickness is likely facilitated by an underthrusting Indian lithosphere balanced by upper plate extension.

Response of tree rings to earthquakes during the past 350 years at Jiuzhaigou in the eastern Tibet

Trees growing in the tectonically active and climatically sensitive regions, such as the Tibetan Plateau, frequently suffer damage from strong earthquakes and extreme hydro-climatic events. Spruce trees in the Jiuzhaigou National Park exhibited abrupt periods of growth suppression with durations of 3-9 years, which was demonstrated to have recorded five seismic events during the last 350 years after excluding the climatic impacts. The ring-width reductions occurred immediately after earthquakes in the growing seasons of 1748, 1879 and 2017, and one year later in 1961 when the earthquake occurred after the growing season in 1960. In contrast, seismic signals of the 1976 earthquake were moderated in the tree-ring indices by improved climatic conditions in 1975. The intensity prediction equation and isoseismal modelling results suggested that past earthquakes required a minimum intensity threshold of 6.2-6.8 MMI to significantly impact tree growth, thus indicating a minimum magnitude threshold of M_w5.3 for near-field (≤20 km) earthquakes and M_w7.4 for regional (≤115 km) earthquakes. These results would greatly improve the dendroseismological reconstruction of past earthquake characteristics and the valid assessment of future probabilities in the eastern Tibet, and help to identify and eliminate seismic signals in the dendroclimatological studies in the hazardous environments.

Geodetic Model of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Mainling Earthquake Inferred from GPS and InSAR Data

On 17 November 2017, a Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred in Mainling County, Nyingchi City, China. The epicenter was located in the Namche Barwa region of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. Here, we have derived coseismic deformation from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and ascending Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Based on a joint inversion of the two datasets, we obtained the coseismic slip distribution along a curved, northeast trending, and high-angle (dip angle of 75°) thrust fault. Our results show that the seismic moment release was 7.49 × 1018 N∙m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of Mw 6.55. The maximum slip was 1.03 m and the main rupture zone extended to a 12 km depth. The earthquake may have been related to the release of strain accumulated during the subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian continent. We identified a high strain rate and low b-values around the epicentral area before the earthquake, indicating that the earthquake was nucleated under a high strain/stress state. The data indicate two regions, southwest and southeast to the epicenter (the eastern Main Himalaya Thrust and northern end of the Sagaing fault), which remain under high stress/strain conditions and pose a significant seismic hazard.

Common Mode Component and Its Potential Effect on GPS-Inferred Three-Dimensional Crustal Deformations in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Surface and deep potential geophysical signals respond to the spatial redistribution of global mass variations, which may be monitored by geodetic observations. In this study, we analyze dense Global Positioning System (GPS) time series in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau using principal component analysis (PCA) and wavelet time-frequency spectra. The oscillations of interannual and residual signals are clearly identified in the common mode component (CMC) decomposed from the dense GPS time series from 2000 to 2018. The newly developed spherical harmonic coefficients of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Release-06 (GRACE RL06) are adopted to estimate the seasonal and interannual patterns in this region, revealing hydrologic and atmospheric/nontidal ocean loads. We stack the averaged elastic GRACE-derived loading displacements to identify the potential physical significance of the CMC in the GPS time series. Interannual nonlinear signals with a period of ~3 to ~4 years in the CMC (the scaled principal components from PC1 to PC3) are found to be predominantly related to hydrologic loading displacements, which respond to signals (El Niño/La Niña) of global climate change. We find an obvious signal with a period of ~6 yr on the vertical component that could be caused by mantle-inner core gravity coupling. Moreover, we evaluate the CMC’s effect on the GPS-derived velocities and confirm that removing the CMC can improve the recognition of nontectonic crustal deformation, especially on the vertical component. Furthermore, the effects of the CMC on the three-dimensional velocity and uncertainty are presented to reveal the significant crustal deformation and dynamic processes of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau.

Geodetic Constraints on the Crustal Deformation along the Kunlun Fault and Its Tectonic Implications

This study focuses on the crustal deformation and interseismic fault coupling along the strike-slip Kunlun fault, northern Tibet, whose western segment ruptured in the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili earthquake. We first integrated published Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity solutions and calculated strain rate fields covering the Kunlun fault. Our results show abnormally high post-earthquake strain rate values across the ruptures; furthermore, these exceed those in pre-earthquake data. Together with two tracks of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations (2003–2010) and position time-series data from two continuous GPS sites, we show that the postseismic deformation of the Kokoxili earthquake may continue up to 2014; and that the postseismic transients of the earthquake affect the 2001–2014 GPS velocity solutions. We then processed the GPS data observed in 2014–2017 and obtained a dense interseismic velocity field for the northern Tibet. Using a fault dislocation model in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the slip rates and fault coupling on the Kunlun fault in 1991–2001 and 2014–2017. Results show an increase of slip rates and eastward migration of high fault coupling on the Kunlun fault after 2001. We propose the temporal variations are a result of the eastward accelerating movement, as a whole, of the Bayanhar block, whose boundaries were decoupled by several large earthquakes since 1997. Moreover, our results show the accumulated elastic strains along the Alake Lake-Tuosuo Lake segments could be balanced by an Mw 7.4–7.7 earthquake.

A Fine Velocity and Strain Rate Field of Present-Day Crustal Motion of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau Inverted Jointly by InSAR and GPS

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 6 Envisat ASAR descending tracks; spanning the 2003–2010 period; was used to measure interseismic strain accumulation across the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Mean line-of-sight (LOS) ratemaps are computed by stacking atmospheric-corrected and orbital-corrected interferograms. The ratemaps from one track with different atmospheric-corrected results or two parallel; partially overlapping tracks; show a consistent pattern of left-lateral motion across the fault; which demonstrates the MERIS and ECMWF atmospheric correction works satisfactorily for small stain measurement of this region; even with a limited number of interferograms. By combining the measurements of InSAR and GPS; a fine crustal deformation velocity and strain rate field was estimated on discrete points with irregular density depending on the fault location; which revealed that the present-day slip rate on the Haiyuan fault system varies little from west to east. A change (2–3 mm/year) in line-of-sight (LOS) deformation rate across the fault is observed from the Jinqianghe segment to its eastern end. Inversion from the cross-fault InSAR profiles gave a shallow locking depth of 3–6 km on the main rupture of the 1920 earthquake. We therefore infer that the middle-lower part of the seismogenic layer on the 1920 rupture is not yet fully locked since the 1920 large earthquake. Benefit from high spatial resolution InSAR data; a low strain accumulation zone with high strain rates on its two ends was detected; which corresponds to the creeping segment; i.e., the Laohushan fault segment. Contrary to the previous knowledge of squeezing structure; an abnormal tension zone is disclosed from the direction map of principal stress; which is consistent with the recent geological study. The distribution of principal stress also showed that the expanding frontier of the northeastern plateau has crossed the Liupan Shan fault zone; even arrived at the northeast area of the Xiaoguan Shan. This result agrees with the deep seismic reflection profile.

Locking Status and Earthquake Potential Hazard along the Middle-South Xianshuihe Fault

By combining the seismogenic environment, seismic recurrence periods of strong historical earthquakes, precise locations of small–moderate earthquakes, and Coulomb stress changes of moderate–strong earthquakes, we analyze the potential locking status of a seismically quiet segment of Xianshuihe fault between Daofu County and Kangding City (SDK). The interseismic surface velocities between 1999 and 2017 are obtained from updated global positioning system (GPS) observations in this region. After removing the post-seismic relaxation effect caused by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred around the fault segment, the observed velocities reveal a pronounced symmetric slip pattern along the SDK trace. The far field slip rate is 7.8 ± 0.4 mm/a, and the fault SDK is confirmed to be in an interseismic silent phase. The optimal locking depth is estimated at 7 km, which is perfectly distributed on the upper edge of the relocated hypocenters. A moment deficit analysis shows cumulative seismic moment between 1955 and 2018, corresponding to an Mw 6.6 event. Finally, based on a viscoelastic deformation model, we find that moderate–strong earthquakes in the surrounding area increase the Coulomb stress level by up to 2 bars on the SDK, significantly enhancing the future seismic potential.

Transient deformation during the Milashan Tunnel construction in northern Sangri-Cuona Rift, southern Tibet, China observed by Sentinel-1 satellites

Using 3-year Sentinel-1 C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, we observed prominent ground subsidence around the construction site of the Milashan Tunnel, which is on top of the northern Sangri-Cuona Rift (SCR) in southern Tibet. The most deformed area extends ∼7 km in the north-south direction and ∼6 km in the east-west direction, with a peak subsidence rate of over 10 mm/a in the line of sight direction of both the descending and ascending satellites. Aside from the long-term ground subsidence arising directly from underground water outflow and rock excavation, a regional aseismic fault slip episode is also evident. The aseismic slip event began in May 2016 and ended in July 2016. The surface aseismic displacements can be explained by normal faulting with mainly down-dip movement and a modest right-lateral strike-slip component on a nearly north-south trending fault. The aseismic deformation triggered by the Milashan Tunnel construction demonstrates the sensitive response of crustal-scale tectonics to human activity, which poses high seismic hazards for the heavily populated region.

Seasonal Mass Changes and Crustal Vertical Deformations Constrained by GPS and GRACE in Northeastern Tibet

Surface vertical deformation includes the Earth’s elastic response to mass loading on or near the surface. Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) stations record such deformations to estimate seasonal and secular mass changes. We used 41 CGPS stations to construct a time series of coordinate changes, which are decomposed by empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), in northeastern Tibet. The first common mode shows clear seasonal changes, indicating seasonal surface mass re-distribution around northeastern Tibet. The GPS-derived result is then assessed in terms of the mass changes observed in northeastern Tibet. The GPS-derived common mode vertical change and the stacked Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mass change are consistent, suggesting that the seasonal surface mass variation is caused by changes in the hydrological, atmospheric and non-tidal ocean loads. The annual peak-to-peak surface mass changes derived from GPS and GRACE results show seasonal oscillations in mass loads, and the corresponding amplitudes are between 3 and 35 mm/year. There is an apparent gradually increasing gravity between 0.1 and 0.9 μGal/year in northeast Tibet. Crustal vertical deformation is determined after eliminating the surface load effects from GRACE, without considering Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) contribution. It reveals crustal uplift around northeastern Tibet from the corrected GPS vertical velocity. The unusual uplift of the Longmen Shan fault indicates tectonically sophisticated processes in northeastern Tibet.

The quasi-biennial vertical oscillations at global GPS stations: identification by ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Modeling nonlinear vertical components of a GPS time series is critical to separating sources contributing to mass displacements. Improved vertical precision in GPS positioning at stations for velocity fields is key to resolving the mechanism of certain geophysical phenomena. In this paper, we use ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the daily GPS time series at 89 continuous GPS stations, spanning from 2002 to 2013. EEMD decomposes a GPS time series into different intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are used to identify different kinds of signals and secular terms. Our study suggests that the GPS records contain not only the well-known signals (such as semi-annual and annual signals) but also the seldom-noted quasi-biennial oscillations (QBS). The quasi-biennial signals are explained by modeled loadings of atmosphere, non-tidal and hydrology that deform the surface around the GPS stations. In addition, the loadings derived from GRACE gravity changes are also consistent with the quasi-biennial deformations derived from the GPS observations. By removing the modeled components, the weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) variation of the GPS time series is reduced by 7.1% to 42.3%, and especially, after removing the seasonal and QBO signals, the average improvement percentages for seasonal and QBO signals are 25.6% and 7.5%, respectively, suggesting that it is significant to consider the QBS signals in the GPS records to improve the observed vertical deformations.

Moho topography, ranges and folds of Tibet by analysis of global gravity models and GOCE data

The determination of the crustal structure is essential in geophysics, as it gives insight into the geohistory, tectonic environment, geohazard mitigation, etc. Here we present the latest advance on three-dimensional modeling representing the Tibetan Mohorovičić discontinuity (topography and ranges) and its deformation (fold), revealed by analyzing gravity data from GOCE mission. Our study shows noticeable advances in estimated Tibetan Moho model which is superior to the results using the earlier gravity models prior to GOCE. The higher quality gravity field of GOCE is reflected in the Moho solution: we find that the Moho is deeper than 65 km, which is twice the normal continental crust beneath most of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, while the deepest Moho, up to 82 km, is located in western Tibet. The amplitude of the Moho fold is estimated to be ranging from −9 km to 9 km with a standard deviation of ~2 km. The improved GOCE gravity derived Moho signals reveal a clear directionality of the Moho ranges and Moho fold structure, orthogonal to deformation rates observed by GPS. This geophysical feature, clearly more evident than the ones estimated using earlier gravity models, reveals that it is the result of the large compressional tectonic process.

Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model

Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

Rifting and strike-slip shear in central Tibet and the geometry, age and kinematics of upper crustal extension in Tibet

The youngest deformation structures on the Tibet Plateau are about NNE-trending grabens. We first combine remote-sensing structural and geomorphological studies with structural field observations and literature seismological data to study the Muga Purou rift that stretches at c. 86°E across central Tibet and highlight a complex deformation field. ENE-striking faults are dominated by sinistral strike–slip motion; NNE-striking faults have normal kinematics and outline a right-stepping en-echelon array of grabens, also suggesting sinistral strike–slip; along NW-striking fault sets, the arrangement of grabens may indicate a dextral strike–slip component. Thus, in central Tibet, rifts comprise mostly grabens connected to strike–slip fault zones or are arranged en-echelon to accommodate sinistral wrenching; overall strain geometry is constrictional, in which NNE–SSW and subvertical shortening is balanced by WNW–ESE extension. The overwhelmingly shallow earthquakes only locally outline active faults; clusters seem to trace linkage or propagation zones of know structures. The earthquake pattern, the neotectonic mapping, and the local fault–slip analyses emphasize a distributed, heterogeneous pattern of deformation within a developing regional structure and indicate that strain concentration is weak in the uppermost crust of central Tibet. Thus, the geometry of neotectonic deformation is different from that in southern Tibet. Next, we use structural and palaeomagnetic data along the Zagaya section of southern central Tibet to outline significant block rotation and sinistral strike–slip SE of the Muga Purou rift. Our analysis supports earlier interpretations of reactivation of the Bangong–Nujiang suture as a neotectonic strike–slip belt. Then, we review the existing and provide new geochronology on the onset of neotectonic deformation in Tibet and suggest that the currently active neotectonic deformation started c. 5 Ma ago. It was preceded by c. north–south shortening and c. east–west lengthening within a regime that comprises strike–slip and low-angle normal faults; these were active at c. 18–7 Ma. The c. east-striking, sinistral Damxung shear zone and the c. NE-trending Nyainqentanghla sinistral-normal detachment allow speculations about the nature of this deformation: the ductile, low-angle detachments may be part of or connect to a mid-crustal décollement layer in which the strike–slip zones root; they may be unrelated to crustal extension. Finally, we propose a kinematic model that traces neotectonic particle flow across Tibet and speculate on the origin of structural differences in southern and central Tibet. Particles accelerate and move eastwards from western Tibet. Flow lines first diverge as the plateau is widening. At c. 92°E, the flow lines start to converge and particles accelerate; this area is characterized by the appearance of the major though-going strike–slip faults of eastern-central Tibet. The flow lines turn southeastward and converge most between the Assam–Namche Barwa and Gongha syntaxes; here the particles reach their highest velocity. The flow lines diverge south of the cord between the syntaxes. This neotectonic kinematic pattern correlates well with the decade-long velocity field derived from GPS-geodesy. The difference between the structural geometries of the rifts in central and southern Tibet may be an effect of the basal shear associated with the subduction of the Indian plate. The boundary between the nearly pure extensional province of the southern Tibet and the strike–slip and normal faulting one of central Tibet runs obliquely across the Lhasa block. Published P-wave tomographic imaging showed that the distance over which Indian lithosphere has thrust under Tibet decreases from west to east; this suggests that the distinct spatial variation in the mantle structure along the collision zone is responsible for the surface distribution of rift structures in Tibet.

Supplementary material:

Containing supporting data is available at http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/SUP18446.