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Satellite-Based Operational Real-Time Drought Monitoring in the Transboundary Lancang–Mekong River Basin. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12030376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Existing gauging networks are sparse and not readily available in real-time over the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River (LMR) basin, making it difficult to accurately identify drought. In this study, we aimed to build an operational real-time Lancang–Mekong drought monitor (LMDM), through combining satellite real-time data and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model at a 0.25° spatial resolution. Toward this, three VIC runs were conducted: (1) a 60-year (1951–2010) historical simulation driven by Princeton’s global meteorological forcing (PGF) for yielding ‘normal’ conditions (PGF-VIC), wherein the VIC was calibrated with 20-year observed streamflow at six hydrological stations; (2) a short-period (2011–2014) simulation to bridge the gap between the historical and the real-time modeling; (3) the real-time (2015–present) simulation driven by bias-corrected satellite data, wherein the real-time soil moisture (SM) estimate was expressed as percentile (relative to the ‘normal’) for drought monitoring. Results show that VIC can successfully reproduce the observed hydrographs, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.70 and the relative bias mostly within 15%. Assessment on the performance of LMDM shows that the real-time SM estimates bear good spatial similarity to the reference, with the correlation coefficient beyond 0.80 across >70% of the domain. In terms of drought monitoring, the LMDM can reasonably reproduce the two recorded droughts, implying extreme droughts covering the Lower LMR during 2004/05 and widespread severe 2009/10 drought across the upper domain. The percentage drought area implied by the LMDM and the reference is close, corresponding to 66% and 60%, 43% and 40%, and 44% and 36% for each typical drought month. Since January 2015, the LMDM was running in an operational mode, from which the 2016 unprecedented drought was successfully identified in Mekong Delta. This study highlights the LMDM’s capability for reliable real-time drought monitoring, which can serve as a valuable drought early warning prototype for other data-poor regions.
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Fabre C, Sauvage S, Tananaev N, Noël GE, Teisserenc R, Probst JL, Pérez JMS. Assessment of sediment and organic carbon exports into the Arctic ocean: The case of the Yenisei River basin. WATER RESEARCH 2019; 158:118-135. [PMID: 31022529 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2019.04.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2018] [Revised: 03/30/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The export of organic carbon export by the rivers to the oceans either as particulate organic carbon (POC) or dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is very sensitive to climate change especially in permafrost affected catchments where soils are very rich in organic carbon. With global warming, organic carbon export in both forms is expected to increase in Arctic regions. It should affect contemporary biogeochemical cycles in rivers and oceans and therefore modify the whole food web. This study tries to understand complex processes involved in sediment, POC and DOC riverine transport in the Yenisei River basin and to quantify their respective fluxes at the river outlet. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is used in this study to simulate water and suspended sediment transfers in the largest Arctic river. POC and DOC export have been quantified with empirical models, adapted from literature for the study case. First, the hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step for the 2003-2008 and the 2009-2016 periods respectively, and its output has been compared with field data for water and sediment fluxes. Based on conceptualization of transfer processes, calibration on climate and soil properties has been performed in order to correctly represent hydrology and sediment transfer in permafrost basins. Second, calibration of empirical models for DOC/POC transport have been performed by comparing their output with field data, available from 2003 to 2016. Our study reveals that SWAT is capable of correctly representing hydrology, sediment transfer, POC and DOC fluxes and their spatial distribution at a daily timescale, and outlines the links between these fluxes and permafrost features. Our simulation effort results in specific sediment, POC and DOC fluxes of 2.97 t km-2 yr-1, 0.13 t km-2 yr-1 and 1.14 t km-2 yr-1 for the period 2003-2016 which are in the range of previous estimates. About 60% of the total fluxes of sediment, DOC and POC to the Arctic Ocean are exported during the two months of the freshet. Spatial analysis show that permafrost-free areas have returned higher daily organic carbon export than permafrost affected zones, highlighting the thawing permafrost effect on carbon cycle in climate change feedback.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Fabre
- EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France.
| | - S Sauvage
- EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - N Tananaev
- P.I. Melnikov Permafrost Institute, SB RAS, 677010, Merzlotnaya Str. 36, Yakutsk, Russia; Ugra Research Institute of Information Technologies, 628011, Khanty-Mansiysk Mira Str. 151, Russia
| | | | - R Teisserenc
- EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - J L Probst
- EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
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Troy TJ, Sheffield J, Wood EF. The role of winter precipitation and temperature on northern Eurasian streamflow trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Seo KW, Ryu D, Kim BM, Waliser DE, Tian B, Eom J. GRACE and AMSR-E-based estimates of winter season solid precipitation accumulation in the Arctic drainage region. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2010; 107:17125-30. [PMID: 20855581 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0913139107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 276] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The waters of the Colorado River serve 27 million people in seven states and two countries but are overallocated by more than 10% of the river's historical mean. Climate models project runoff losses of 7-20% from the basin in this century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown however that by the late 1800s, decades prior to allocation of the river's runoff in the 1920s, a fivefold increase in dust loading from anthropogenically disturbed soils in the southwest United States was already decreasing snow albedo and shortening the duration of snow cover by several weeks. The degree to which this increase in radiative forcing by dust in snow has affected timing and magnitude of runoff from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is unknown. Here we use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model with postdisturbance and predisturbance impacts of dust on albedo to estimate the impact on runoff from the UCRB across 1916-2003. We find that peak runoff at Lees Ferry, Arizona has occurred on average 3 wk earlier under heavier dust loading and that increases in evapotranspiration from earlier exposure of vegetation and soils decreases annual runoff by more than 1.0 billion cubic meters or ∼5% of the annual average. The potential to reduce dust loading through surface stabilization in the deserts and restore more persistent snow cover, slow runoff, and increase water resources in the UCRB may represent an important mitigation opportunity to reduce system management tensions and regional impacts of climate change.
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Sapiano MRP, Smith TM, Arkin PA. A new merged analysis of precipitation utilizing satellite and reanalysis data. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd010310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Smith TM, Sapiano MRP, Arkin PA. Historical reconstruction of monthly oceanic precipitation (1900–2006). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Tachibana Y, Oshima K, Ogi M. Seasonal and interannual variations of Amur River discharge and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric patterns and moisture fluxes. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Slater AG, Bohn TJ, McCreight JL, Serreze MC, Lettenmaier DP. A multimodel simulation of pan-Arctic hydrology. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jg000303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A. G. Slater
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - T. J. Bohn
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; University of Washington; Seattle Washington USA
| | - J. L. McCreight
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - M. C. Serreze
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - D. P. Lettenmaier
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; University of Washington; Seattle Washington USA
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Sheffield J, Wood EF. Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950–2000: Analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd008288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 279] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Serreze MC, Barrett AP, Slater AG, Steele M, Zhang J, Trenberth KE. The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd008230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 193] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Bromwich DH, Fogt RL, Hodges KI, Walsh JE. A tropospheric assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 global reanalyses in the polar regions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David H. Bromwich
- Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
- Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
| | - Ryan L. Fogt
- Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
- Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
| | - Kevin I. Hodges
- Environmental Systems Science Center; University of Reading; Reading UK
| | - John E. Walsh
- International Arctic Research Center; University of Alaska-Fairbanks; Fairbanks Alaska USA
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