Spatial-temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and its driving factors in cold regions, northeast China

Reference evapotranspiration ([Formula: see text]) is an important indicator for hydrometeorological change, which integrates atmospheric and surface conditions, and its downward trends have been reported in many regions over the past several decades. Cold regions constitute an important ecological barrier in China; however, few studies focus on change in [Formula: see text] in cold regions. Especially in the cold region of northeast China (CRNEC), as one of the national strategic grain bases, understanding spatial-temporal variations of [Formula: see text] is important for agriculture water management and ecological protection. This study selected the observations at 113 national meteorological stations located in CRNEC and evaluated the trends of [Formula: see text] and their driving factors from 1961 to 2017. Results indicate that annual [Formula: see text] increases from the northeast to the southwest of CRNEC and has an insignificant decreasing trend in the whole study period, in which 33 stations (29.2%) show significant decreasing trends and only 19 stations (16.8%) show significant increasing trends at the 95% confidence level. An abrupt change in [Formula: see text] data is detected from 1994. Reasons for this abrupt change in [Formula: see text] vary largely over the study areas. Analysis shows that wind speed and minimum air temperature are the two major factors that control the change of [Formula: see text] before 1994. It also shows that wind speed and actual vapor pressure are the two major controlling factors after 1994. We also found that [Formula: see text] shows a certain correlation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Western Pacific Index, but there is a significant correlation between meteorological factors and teleconnection factors related to [Formula: see text]. These findings will promote agricultural water management and improve water ecological protection in the CRNEC. We investigated changes in reference evapotranspiration relationships with atmospheric circulation and its attributions over the cold regions in northeast China during 1961 ~ 2017. The results indicate that the wind speed and minimum air temperature are the two major factors that control the change of ET0 before 1994, and wind speed and actual vapor pressure are the two major controlling factors after 1994. We also found that ET0 shows a certain correlation with Western Pacific Index in the whole period.

Potential Driving Factors on Surface Solar Radiation Trends over China in Recent Years

The annual mean surface solar radiation (SSR) trends under all-sky, clear-sky, all-sky-no-aerosol, and clear-sky-no-aerosol conditions as well as their possible causes are analyzed during 2005–2018 across China based on different satellite-retrieved datasets to determine the major drivers of the trends. The results confirm clouds and aerosols as the major contributors to such all-sky SSR trends over China but play differing roles over sub-regions. Aerosol variations during this period result in a widespread brightening, while cloud effects show opposite trends from south to north. Moreover, aerosols contribute more to the increasing all-sky SSR trends over northern China, while clouds dominate the SSR decline over southern China. A radiative transfer model is used to explore the relative contributions of cloud cover from different cloud types to the all-types-of-cloud-cover-induced (ACC-induced) SSR trends during this period in four typical sub-regions over China. The simulations point out that the decreases in low-cloud-cover (LCC) over the North China Plain are the largest positive contributor of all cloud types to the marked annual and seasonal ACC-induced SSR increases, and the positive contributions from both high-cloud-cover (HCC) and LCC declines in summer and winter greatly contribute to the ACC-induced SSR increases over East China. The contributions from medium-low-cloud-cover (mid-LCC) and LCC variations dominate the ACC-caused SSR trends over southwestern and South China all year round, except for the larger HCC contribution in summer.

Merging High-Resolution Satellite Surface Radiation Data with Meteorological Sunshine Duration Observations over China from 1983 to 2017

Surface solar radiation (Rs) is essential to climate studies. Thanks to long-term records from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR), the recent release of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) HXG cloud products provide a promising opportunity for building long-term Rs data with high resolutions (3 h and 10 km). In this study, we compare three satellite Rs products based on AVHRR cloud products over China from 1983 to 2017 with direct observations of Rs and sunshine duration (SunDu)-derived Rs. The results show that SunDu-derived Rs have higher accuracy than the direct observed Rs at time scales of a month or longer by comparing with the satellite Rs products. SunDu-derived Rs is available from the 1960s at more than 2000 stations over China, which provides reliable decadal estimations of Rs. However, the three AVHRR-based satellite Rs products have significant biases in quantifying the trend of Rs from 1983 to 2016 (−4.28 W/m2/decade to 2.56 W/m2/decade) due to inhomogeneity in satellite cloud products and the lack of information on atmospheric aerosol optical depth. To adjust the inhomogeneity of the satellite Rs products, we propose a geographically weighted regression fusion method (HGWR) to merge ISCCP-HXG Rs with SunDu-derived Rs. The merged Rs product over China from 1983 to 2017 with a spatial resolution of 10 km produces nearly the same trend as that of the SunDu-derived Rs. This study makes a first attempt to adjust the inhomogeneity of satellite Rs products and provides the merged high-resolution Rs product from 1983 to 2017 over China, which can be downloaded freely.

Solar Brightening/Dimming over China’s Mainland: Effects of Atmospheric Aerosols, Anthropogenic Emissions, and Meteorological Conditions

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is the main factor affecting the earth’s climate and environment and its variations and the reason for these variations are an important part of climate change research. In this research, we investigated the long-term variations of SSR during 1984–2016 and the quantitative influences of atmospheric aerosols, anthropogenic emissions, and meteorological conditions on SSR over China’s mainland. The results show the following: (1) The annual average SSR values had a decline trend at a rate of −0.371 Wm−2 yr−1 from 1984 to 2016 over China. (2) The aerosol optical depth (AOD) plays the main role in inducing variations in SSR over China, with r values of −0.75. Moreover, there are marked regional differences in the influence of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological conditions on SSR trends. (3) From a regional perspective, AOD is the main influencing factor on SSR in northeast China (NEC), Yunnan Plateau and surrounding regions (YPS), North China (NC), and Loess Plateau (LP), with r values of −0.65, −0.60, −0.89, and −0.50, respectively. However, the main driving factors for SSR in northwest China (NWC) are “in cloud optical thickness of all clouds” (TAUTOT) (−0.26) and black carbon (BC) anthropogenic emissions (−0.21). TAUTOT (−0.39) and total precipitable water vapor (TQV) (−0.29) are the main influencing factors of SSR in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain (MYP). The main factors that influence SSR in southern China (SC) are surface pressure (PS) (−0.66) and AOD (−0.43). This research provides insights in understanding the variations of SSR and its relationships with anthropogenic conditions and meteorological factors.

Surface Diffuse Solar Radiation Determined by Reanalysis and Satellite over East Asia: Evaluation and Comparison

Recently, surface diffuse solar radiation (Rdif) has been attracting a growing interest in view of its function in improving plant productivity, thus promoting global carbon uptake, and its impacts on solar energy utilization. To date, very few radiation products provide estimates of Rdif, and systematic validation and evaluation are even more scare. In this study, Rdif estimates from Reanalysis Fifth Generation (ERA5) of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite-based retrieval (called JiEA) are evaluated over East Asia using ground measurements at 39 stations from World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The results show that JiEA agrees well with measurements, while ERA5 underestimates Rdif significantly. Both datasets perform better at monthly mean scale than at daily mean and hourly scale. The mean bias error and root-mean-square error of daily mean estimates are −1.21 W/m2 and 20.06 W/m2 for JiEA and −17.18 W/m2 and 32.42 W/m2 for ERA5, respectively. Regardless of over- or underestimation, correlations of estimated time series of ERA5 and JiEA show high similarity. JiEA reveals a slight decreasing trend at regional scale, but ERA5 shows no significant trend, and neither of them reproduces temporal variability of ground measurements. Data accuracy of ERA5 is more robust than JiEA in time but less in space. Latitudinal dependency is noted for ERA5 while not for JiEA. In addition, spatial distributions of Rdif from ERA5 and JiEA show pronounced discrepancy. Neglect of adjacency effects caused by horizontal photon transport is the main cause for Rdif underestimation of ERA5. Spatial analysis calls for improvements to the representation of clouds, aerosols and water vapor for reproducing fine spatial distribution and seasonal variations of Rdif.

Improvement of Air Pollution in China Inferred from Changes between Satellite-Based and Measured Surface Solar Radiation

The air pollution crisis in China has become a global concern due to its profound effects on the global environment and human health. To significantly improve the air quality, mandatory reductions were imposed on pollution emissions and energy consumption within the framework of the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans of China. This study takes the first step to quantify the implications of recent pollution control efforts for surface solar radiation (SSR), the primary energy source for our planet. The observed bias between satellite-retrieved and surface-observed SSR time series is proposed as a useful indicator for the radiative effects of aerosol changes. This is due to the fact that the effects of temporal variations of aerosols are neglected in satellite retrievals but well captured in surface observations of SSR. The implemented pollution control measures and actions have successfully brought back SSR by an average magnitude of 3.5 W m−2 decade−1 for the whole of China from 2008 onwards. Regionally, effective pollution regulations are indicated in the East Coast regions of South and North China, including the capital Beijing, with the SSR brightening induced by aerosol reduction of 7.5 W m−2 decade−1, 5.2 W m−2 decade−1, and 5.9 W m−2 decade−1, respectively. Seasonally, the SSR recovery in China mainly occurs in the warm seasons of spring and summer, with the magnitudes induced by the aerosol radiative effects of 5.9 W m−2 decade−1 and 4.7 W m−2 decade−1, respectively.

Evaluation of Multi-Reanalysis Solar Radiation Products Using Global Surface Observations

Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface is an essential driver of the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface and is also an important input variable in the research on the surface eco-hydrological process. The reanalysis solar radiation dataset is characterized by a long time series and wide spatial coverage and is used in the research of large-scale eco-hydrological processes. Due to certain errors in their production process of the reanalysis of solar radiation products, reanalysis products should be evaluated before application. In this study, three global solar-radiation reanalysis products (ERA-Interim; JRA-55; and NCEP-DOE) in different temporal scales and climate zones were evaluated using surface solar-radiation observations from the National Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA, Beijing, China) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, Zürich, Switzerland) from 2000 to 2009. All reanalysis products (ERA-Interim; JRA-55; and NCEP-DOE) overestimated with an annual bias of 14.86 W/m2, 22.61 W/m2, and 31.85 W/m2; monthly bias of 15.17 W/m2, 21.29 W/m2, and 36.91 W/m2; and seasonal bias of 15.08 W/m2, 21.21 W/m2, and 36.69 W/m2, respectively. In different Köppen climate zones, the annual solar radiation of ERA-Interim performed best in cold regions with a bias of 10.30 W/m2 and absolute relative error (ARE) of 8.98%. However, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE showed the best performance in tropical regions with a bias of 20.08 W/m2 and −0.12 W/m2, and ARE of 11.00% and 9.68%, respectively. Overall, through the evaluations across different temporal and spatial scales, the rank of the three reanalysis products in order was the ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-DOE. In addition, based on the evaluation, we analyzed the relationship between the error (ARE) of the reanalysis products and cloud cover, aerosol, and water vapor, which significantly influences solar radiation and we found that cloud was the main cause for errors in the three solar radiation reanalysis products. The above can provide a reference for the application and downscaling of the three solar radiation reanalysis products.

Validation of CM SAF CLARA-A2 and SARAH-E Surface Solar Radiation Datasets over China

To achieve high-quality surface solar radiation (SSR) data for climate monitoring and analysis, the two satellite-derived monthly SSR datasets of CM SAF CLARA-A2 and SARAH-E have been validated against a homogenized ground-based dataset covering 59 stations across China for 1993–2015 and 1999–2015, respectively. The satellite products overestimate surface solar irradiance by 10.0 W m−2 in CLARA-A2 and 7.5 W m−2 in SARAH-E on average. A strong urbanization effect has been noted behind the large positive bias in China. The bias decreased after 2004, possibly linked to a weakened attenuating effect of aerosols on radiation in China. Both satellite datasets can reproduce the monthly anomalies of SSR, indicated by a significant correlation around 0.8. Due to the neglection of temporal aerosol variability in the satellite algorithms, the discrepancy between the satellite-estimated and ground-observed SSR trends slightly increases in 1999–2015 as compared to 1993–2015. The seasonal performance of the satellite products shows a better accuracy during warm than cold seasons. With respect to the spatial performance, the effects from anthropogenic aerosols, dust aerosols and high elevation and snow-covered surfaces should be well considered in the satellite SSR retrievals to further improve the performance in the eastern, northwestern and southwestern parts of China, respectively.

Periodic fluctuation of reference evapotranspiration during the past five decades: Does Evaporation Paradox really exist in China?

Evidence that the pan evaporation or reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) as the indicator of atmospheric evaporation capability have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades (coined as “evaporation paradox”) has been reported worldwide. Here, we provide a nationwide investigation of spatiotemporal change of ET₀ using meteorological data from 602 stations with the updated data (1961–2011). In addition, we explore the trigger mechanism by quantitative assessment on the contribution of climatic factors to ET₀ change based on a differential equation method. In despite of different shift points regionally, our results suggest that the ET₀ generally present decadal variations rather than monotonic response to climate change reported in previous studies. The significant decrease in net radiation dominate the decrease in ET₀ before early 1990s in southern regions, while observed near-surface wind speed is the primary contributor to the variations of ET₀ for the rest regions during the same periods. The enhancements of atmospheric evaporation capability after early 1990s are driven primarily by recent relative humidity limitation in China. From a continental scale view, as highly correlating with to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the shift behaviors of ET₀ is likely an episodic phenomenon of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in earth.