Nonlinear comparative analysis of Greenland and Antarctica ice cores data

We analyze the temperature time series of the EPICA Dome C ice cores in Antarctica and of the Greenland project, Summit, with durations of 800 000 and 248 000 years, respectively, with a recent mathematical tool defined through the Fourier phases of the series, known as the J-index. This data driven index can differentiate between purely random dynamics and dynamics with a deterministic component. It is sensitive to nonlinear components and robust to the presence of noise. Our J-index data analysis shows that both Greenland and Antarctica climatic fluctuations possess deterministic traits and suggests the presence of an underlying nonlinear dynamics. Furthermore, in both regions, it reveals the simultaneous occurrence of an important global event known as the "Pelukian transgression." For Antarctica, it also detects the marine isotopic stage 11. Additionally, our calculation of the time series Hurst exponents and our detrended fluctuation analysis show the presence of long-range persistent correlations for Antarctica and anti-persistent correlations for Greenland. For the latter case, our fractal dimension determinations are indicative of a more complex climatic dynamics in Greenland with respect to Antarctica. Our results are encouraging for further development of climate variability deterministic models for these regions.

Modern temperatures in central-north Greenland warmest in past millennium

The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point¹. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming², but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions^3-5 are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from AD 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since AD 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

Hydroclimate variability in the Caribbean during North Atlantic Heinrich cooling events (H8 and H9)

We present a speleothem record from western Cuba, spanning the period 98.7-84.9 ka BP. Our record shows two distinctive periods of high δ¹⁸O corresponding to dry and/or cold periods during 85-87.6 and 90.2-93.1 ka BP, synchronous with Heinrich events 8 and 9 (H8 and H9). Hence, we provide the first proxy evidence of the local Caribbean climate response to H8 and H9. Interestingly, H8 is more pronounced compared to H9, which may be a local response to lower temperatures in the North Atlantic resulting in a weak AMOC and reduced deep water formation, therefore a stronger south shift of the ITCZ. Our data complement existing speleothem records from western Cuba which, collectively, provide a nearly continuous paleoclimate time-series spanning the last 100 ka BP, indicating a consistent response to millennial-scale events as dry and/or cooler conditions. The comparison with regional paleoclimate records reveals an anti-phased relationship with South America, caused by the southern movements of the ITCZ during millennial-scale events which lead to dry conditions in the Caribbean and a stronger South American Monsoon System.

The timing, duration and magnitude of the 8.2 ka event in global speleothem records

Abrupt events are a feature of many palaeoclimate records during the Holocene. The best example is the 8.2 ka event, which was triggered by a release of meltwater into the Labrador Sea and resulted in a weakening of poleward heat transport in the North Atlantic. We use an objective method to identify rapid climate events in globally distributed speleothem oxygen isotope records during the Holocene. We show that the 8.2 ka event can be identified in >70% of the speleothem records and is the most coherent signal of abrupt climate change during the last 12,000 years. The isotopic changes during the event are regionally homogenous: positive oxygen isotope anomalies are observed across Asia and negative anomalies are seen across Europe, the Mediterranean, South America and southern Africa. The magnitude of the isotopic excursions in Europe and Asia are statistically indistinguishable. There is no significant difference in the duration and timing of the 8.2 ka event between regions, or between the speleothem records and Greenland ice core records. Our study supports a rapid and global climate response to the 8.2 ka freshwater pulse into the North Atlantic, likely transmitted globally via atmospheric teleconnections.

Geochemical ice-core constraints on the timing and climatic impact of Aniakchak II (1628 BCE) and Thera (Minoan) volcanic eruptions

Decades of research have focused on establishing the exact year and climatic impact of the Minoan eruption of Thera, Greece (c.1680 to 1500 BCE). Ice cores offer key evidence to resolve this controversy, but attempts have been hampered by a lack of multivolcanic event synchronization between records. In this study, Antarctic and Greenland ice-core records are synchronized using a double bipolar sulfate marker, and calendar dates are assigned to each eruption revealed within the 'Thera period'. From this global-scale sequence of volcanic sulfate loading, we derive indications toward each eruption's latitude and potential to disrupt the climate system. Ultrafine sampling for sulfur isotopes and tephra conclusively demonstrate a colossal eruption of Alaska's Aniakchak II as the source of stratospheric sulfate in the now precisely dated 1628 BCE ice layer. These findings end decades of speculation that Thera was responsible for the 1628 BCE event, and place Aniakchak II (52 ± 17 Tg S) and an unknown volcano at 1654 BCE (50 ± 13 Tg S) as two of the largest Northern Hemisphere sulfur injections in the last 4,000 years. This opens possibilities to explore widespread climatic impacts for contemporary societies and, in pinpointing Aniakchak II, confirms that stratospheric sulfate can be globally distributed from eruptions outside the tropics. Dating options for Thera are reduced to a series of precisely dated, constrained stratospheric sulfur injection events at 1611 BCE, 1561/1558/1555BCE, and c.1538 BCE, which are all below 14 ± 5 Tg S, indicating a climatic forcing potential for Thera well below that of Tambora (1815 CE).

Climate changes modulated the history of Arctic iodine during the Last Glacial Cycle

Iodine has a significant impact on promoting the formation of new ultrafine aerosol particles and accelerating tropospheric ozone loss, thereby affecting radiative forcing and climate. Therefore, understanding the long-term natural evolution of iodine, and its coupling with climate variability, is key to adequately assess its effect on climate on centennial to millennial timescales. Here, using two Greenland ice cores (NEEM and RECAP), we report the Arctic iodine variability during the last 127,000 years. We find the highest and lowest iodine levels recorded during interglacial and glacial periods, respectively, modulated by ocean bioproductivity and sea ice dynamics. Our sub-decadal resolution measurements reveal that high frequency iodine emission variability occurred in pace with Dansgaard/Oeschger events, highlighting the rapid Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere iodine exchange response to abrupt climate changes. Finally, we discuss if iodine levels during past warmer-than-present climate phases can serve as analogues of future scenarios under an expected ice-free Arctic Ocean. We argue that the combination of natural biogenic ocean iodine release (boosted by ongoing Arctic warming and sea ice retreat) and anthropogenic ozone-induced iodine emissions may lead to a near future scenario with the highest iodine levels of the last 127,000 years.

A 120,000-year long climate record from a NW-Greenland deep ice core at ultra-high resolution

We report high resolution measurements of the stable isotope ratios of ancient ice (δ¹⁸O, δD) from the North Greenland Eemian deep ice core (NEEM, 77.45° N, 51.06° E). The record covers the period 8–130 ky b2k (y before 2000) with a temporal resolution of ≈0.5 and 7 y at the top and the bottom of the core respectively and contains important climate events such as the 8.2 ky event, the last glacial termination and a series of glacial stadials and interstadials. At its bottom part the record contains ice from the Eemian interglacial. Isotope ratios are calibrated on the SMOW/SLAP scale and reported on the GICC05 (Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005) and AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012) time scales interpolated accordingly. We also provide estimates for measurement precision and accuracy for both δ¹⁸O and δD.

Measurement(s)	isotope analysis • water ice core
Technology Type(s)	cavity ring-down spectroscopy
Factor Type(s)	δ18O • δD
Sample Characteristic - Location	Greenland Ice Sheet

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.14216441

Revisiting the Paleo Elbe Valley: Reconstruction of the Holocene, Sedimentary Development on Basis of High-Resolution Grain Size Data and Shallow Seismics

The Paleo Elbe Valley is the most prominent subsurface structure in the southern North Sea. During the Weichselian (marine isotope stage (MIS) 2), the valley traversed the exposed sea floor and drained the southern margin of the Scandinavian ice sheet. Today the valley is filled with up to 16 m thick sediments, but the responsible processes and drivers remain unknown. To unravel these processes and describe the valley’s evolution with Holocene transgression, we use shallow seismic data and vertical high-resolution grain-size core data. At the base of the western shore, supralittoral fine sands are overlain by a thin layer of clay dated to 9.8 cal. ka BP. The major sediment package consists of marine silt with internal seismic reflectors inclined in a northeastern direction, indicating a sediment transport from the southwest. The valley infill started when the western shore was flooded around 9.6 cal. ka BP and can be divided into two phases. During the first one (9.6–8.1 cal. ka BP) the sedimentation rate was highly driven by wind and waves. The second phase (8.1–5.0 cal. ka BP) was mainly tidal dominated but shows also storm event deposits in the north. Around 5.0 cal. ka BP the valley was almost filled.

Dynamic of Tridacna spp. population variability in northern SCS over past 4500 years derived from AMS 14C dating

The marine bivalve, Tridacna spp. is an iconic invertebrate of the Indo-Pacific coral reef communities from Eocene to present. However, field observations found that the population of Tridacna spp. has declined in recent decades and some species are now endangered in the northern South China Sea (SCS) of western Pacific, which are speculated to be connected with the human overfishing and/or climate changes. Thus distinguishing the impacts of human activities and climate changes on Tridacna spp. populations is essential for understanding the dynamic of Tridacna spp. population variability. Such effort will be important in launching conservation policies and restoring population. Here, extensive sampling was applied on sub-fossil Tridacna spp. shells at the North Reef of the northern SCS, and the long-lived (with a lifespan more than 30 years) Tridacna spp. population index (LTPI) over the past 4500 years was obtained based on the AMS¹⁴C dating method. The results show that LTPI has experienced several short-term collapses (shorter than 200 years) over the past 4500 years, which may be associated with excessive cold winter temperatures. Remarkably, LTPI usually recovered rapidly after the rewarming of temperatures, indicating a robust self-recruitment mechanisms in response to natural climate changes. However, the last catastrophic collapse of LTPI that occurred at around ~1820 CE - ~1900 CE didn't rebound despite the significant rise in temperature over the recent 100 years. The decoupling between LTPI and climate changes in recent hundred years was probably induced by the increased commercial fishing in the SCS, which has overwhelmed and exacerbated the self-recruitment mechanisms between Tridacna spp. population and climate changes.

Seasonal drought events in tropical East Asia over the last 60,000 y

The cause of seasonal hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during interstadial/stadial oscillations of the last glaciation remains controversial. Here, we show seven seasonal drought events that occurred during the relatively warm interstadials by phytolith and pollen records. These events are significantly manifested as high percentages of bilobate phytoliths and are consistent with the large zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient from the western to eastern tropical Pacific, suggesting that the reduction in seasonal precipitation could be interpreted by westward shifts of the western Pacific subtropical high triggered by changes of zonal SST gradient over the tropical Pacific and Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings highlight that both zonal and meridional ocean-atmosphere circulations, rather than solely the Intertropical Convergence Zone or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, controlled the hydrologic changes in tropical East Asia during the last glaciation.

Climatic and societal impacts of a "forgotten" cluster of volcanic eruptions in 1108-1110 CE

Recently revised ice core chronologies for Greenland have newly identified one of the largest sulfate deposition signals of the last millennium as occurring between 1108 and 1113 CE. Long considered the product of the 1104 CE Hekla (Iceland) eruption, this event can now be associated with substantial deposition seen in Antarctica under a similarly revised chronology. This newly recognized bipolar deposition episode has consequently been deemed to reveal a previously unknown major tropical eruption in 1108 CE. Here we show that a unique medieval observation of a “dark” total lunar eclipse attests to a dust veil over Europe in May 1110 CE, corroborating the revised ice-core chronologies. Furthermore, careful evaluation of ice core records points to the occurrence of several closely spaced volcanic eruptions between 1108 and 1110 CE. The sources of these eruptions remain unknown, but we propose that Mt. Asama, whose largest Holocene eruption occurred in August 1108 CE and is credibly documented by a contemporary Japanese observer, is a plausible contributor to the elevated sulfate in Greenland. Dendroclimatology and historical documentation both attest, moreover, to severe climatic anomalies following the proposed eruptions, likely providing the environmental preconditions for subsistence crises experienced in Western Europe between 1109 and 1111 CE.

Improving North Atlantic Marine Core Chronologies Using 230Th Normalization

Producing independent and accurate chronologies for marine sediments is a prerequisite to understand the sequence of millennial-scale events and reveal potential temporal offsets between marine and continental records, or between different marine records, possibly from different regions. The last 40 ky is a generally well-constrained period since radiocarbon (14C) can be used as an absolute dating tool. However, in the northern North Atlantic, calendar ages cannot be directly derived from 14C ages, due to temporal and spatial variations of surface reservoir ages. Alternatively, chronologies can be derived by aligning Greenland ice-core time series with marine surface records. Yet this approach suffers from the lack of clearly defined climatic events between 14.7 and 23.3 cal ky BP (hereafter ka), a crucial period encompassing Heinrich Stadial 1 and the onset of the last deglaciation. In this study, (i) we assess the benefits of 230Th normalization to refine the sedimentation history between surface temperature alignment tie points and (ii) revisit the chronologies of three North Atlantic marine records. Our study supports the contention that the marked increase in the Greenland Ca2+ record at 17.48 ka ± 0.21 ky (1σ) occurred within dating uncertainty of sea surface temperature cooling in the North Atlantic at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1. This sharp feature might be useful for future chronostratigraphic alignments to remedy the lack of chronological constraint between 14.7 and 23.3 ka for North Atlantic marine records that are subject to large changes in 14C surface reservoir age.

Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is a key component of air pollution and an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas¹. During the twentieth century, the proliferation of the internal combustion engine, rapid industrialization and land-use change led to a global-scale increase in O₃ concentrations^2,3; however, the magnitude of this increase is uncertain. Atmospheric chemistry models typically predict^4-7 an increase in the tropospheric O₃ burden of between 25 and 50 per cent since 1900, whereas direct measurements made in the late nineteenth century indicate that surface O₃ mixing ratios increased by up to 300 per cent^8-10 over that time period. However, the accuracy and diagnostic power of these measurements remains controversial². Here we use a record of the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen (¹⁸O¹⁸O in O₂) trapped in polar firn and ice from 1590 to 2016 AD, as well as atmospheric chemistry model simulations, to constrain changes in tropospheric O₃ concentrations. We find that during the second half of the twentieth century, the proportion of ¹⁸O¹⁸O in O₂ decreased by 0.03 ± 0.02 parts per thousand (95 per cent confidence interval) below its 1590-1958 AD mean, which implies that tropospheric O₃ increased by less than 40 per cent during that time. These results corroborate model predictions of global-scale increases in surface pollution and vegetative stress caused by increasing anthropogenic emissions of O₃ precursors^4,5,11. We also estimate that the radiative forcing of tropospheric O₃ since 1850 AD is probably less than +0.4 watts per square metre, consistent with results from recent climate modelling studies¹².

Fe2+ in ice cores as a new potential proxy to detect past volcanic eruptions

Volcanic eruptions are widely used in ice core science to date or synchronize ice cores. Volcanoes emit large amounts of SO₂ that is subsequently converted in the atmosphere into sulfuric acid/sulphate. Its discrete and continuous quantification is currently used to determine the ice layers impacted by volcanic emissions, but available high-resolution sulphate quantification methods in ice core (Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA)) struggle with insufficient sensitivity. Here, we present a new high-resolution CFA chemiluminescence method for the continuous determination of Fe²⁺ species in ice cores that shows clear Fe²⁺ peaks concurrent with volcanic sulphate peaks in the ice core record. The method, applied on a Greenland ice core, correctly identifies all volcanic eruptions from between 1588 to 1611 and from 1777 to 1850. The method has a detection limit of ∽5 pg g^-1 and a quadratic polynomial calibration range of up to at least 1760 pg g^-1. Our results show that Fe²⁺ is a suitable proxy for identifying past volcanic events.

Labrador Sea freshening at 8.5 ka BP caused by Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse

A significant reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and rapid northern Hemisphere cooling 8200 years ago have been linked to the final melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although many studies associated this cold event with the drainage of Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, recent model simulations have shown that the Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse would have had much larger effects on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation than the lake outburst itself. Based on a combination of Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios of benthic foraminifera, this study presents the first direct evidence of a major Labrador shelfwater freshening at 8.5 ka BP, which we associate with the Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse. The freshening is preceded by a subsurface warming of the western Labrador Sea, which we link to the strengthening of the West Greenland Current that could concurrently have accelerated the ice saddle collapse in Hudson Bay.

The exact freshwater scenario that caused the 8.2 ka cold event is still debated. This study presents new evidence for a severe Labrador shelfwater freshening 8500 years ago that was caused by the Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse following a warming in subsurface waters.

The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland

The Eldgjá lava flood is considered Iceland's largest volcanic eruption of the Common Era. While it is well established that it occurred after the Settlement of Iceland (circa 874 CE), the date of this great event has remained uncertain. This has hampered investigation of the eruption's impacts, if any, on climate and society. Here, we use high-temporal resolution glaciochemical records from Greenland to show that the eruption began in spring 939 CE and continued, at least episodically, until at least autumn 940 CE. Contemporary chronicles identify the spread of a remarkable haze in 939 CE, and tree ring-based reconstructions reveal pronounced northern hemisphere summer cooling in 940 CE, consistent with the eruption's high yield of sulphur to the atmosphere. Consecutive severe winters and privations may also be associated with climatic effects of the volcanic aerosol veil. Iceland's formal conversion to Christianity dates to 999/1000 CE, within two generations or so of the Eldgjá eruption. The end of the pagan pantheon is foretold in Iceland's renowned medieval poem, Vǫluspá ('the prophecy of the seeress'). Several lines of the poem describe dramatic eruptive activity and attendant meteorological effects in an allusion to the fiery terminus of the pagan gods. We suggest that they draw on first-hand experiences of the Eldgjá eruption and that this retrospection of harrowing volcanic events in the poem was intentional, with the purpose of stimulating Iceland's Christianisation over the latter half of the tenth century.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Knowledge of surface-ocean circulation in the Atlantic over the late Holocene is incomplete. Here, the authors show that Atlantic Ocean surface-circulation varied in concert with Western Hemisphere rainfall anomalies on centennial timescales and that this link played an essential role during the Little Ice Age.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Contrasting the complexity of the climate of the past 122,000 years and recent 2000 years

The complexity of the climate of the past 122;000 years and recent 2000 years was investigated by analyzing the δ¹⁸O records of ice cores based on the sample entropy (SampEn) method and Lempel-Ziv (LZ) complexity. In using SampEn method, the climate complexity is measured by the sample entropy, which is a modified approximate entropy defined in terms of the occurring probability of new modes in a record. A larger sample entropy reflects a higher probability to spot a new mode in the data, and in this sense signals a larger complexity of the sample. The δ¹⁸O record of the past 122,000-year is found to have smaller SampEn than the recent 2000-year. This result suggests that the climate of the past 122;000-year has less complexity than that of the recent 2000 years, even though the record for the former exhibits stronger fluctuations and multifractality than the latter. This diagnosis is additionally supported by calculations of LZ complexity, which has smaller value for the record of the past 122;000 years than the recent 2000 years. Our theoretical findings may further contribute to ongoing explorations into the nonlinear statistical character of the climate change.

Ancient mtDNA diversity reveals specific population development of wild horses in Switzerland after the Last Glacial Maximum

On large geographical scales, changes in animal population distribution and abundance are driven by environmental change due to climatic and anthropogenic processes. However, so far, little is known about population dynamics on a regional scale. We have investigated 92 archaeological horse remains from nine sites mainly adjacent to the Swiss Jura Mountains dating from c. 41,000-5,000 years BP. The time frame includes major environmental turning points such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), followed by steppe vegetation, afforestation and initial re-opening of the landscape by human agricultural activities. To investigate matrilinear population dynamics, we assembled 240 base pairs of the mitochondrial d-loop. FST values indicate large genetic differentiation of the horse populations that were present during and directly after the LGM. After the retreat of the ice, a highly diverse population expanded as demonstrated by significantly negative results for Tajima's D, Fu's FS and mismatch analyses. At the same time, a different development took place in Asia where populations declined after the LGM. This first comprehensive investigation of wild horse remains on a regional scale reveals a discontinuous colonisation of succeeding populations, a pattern that diverges from the larger Eurasian trend.

Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change

Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K⁺ and Na⁺ ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ¹⁸O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.

Comment on "Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover"

Cooper et al. (Research Article, 7 August 2015, p. 602) combined the annual-layer-counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 with chronological information from the Hulu Cave and Cariaco Basin records to produce a "revised" time scale. We argue that their time scale is incompatible with the nature of annual-layer-counted time scales and may lead to seriously flawed conclusions if used elsewhere at face value.

Transition to farming more likely for small, conservative groups with property rights, but increased productivity is not essential

Theories for the origins of agriculture are still debated, with a range of different explanations offered. Computational models can be used to test these theories and explore new hypotheses; Bowles and Choi [Bowles S, Choi J-K (2013) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(22):8830-8835] have developed one such model. Their model shows the coevolution of farming and farming-friendly property rights, and by including climate variability, replicates the timings for the emergence of these events seen in the archaeological record. Because the processes modeled occurred a long time ago, it can be difficult to justify exact parameter values; hence, we propose a fitting to idealized outcomes (FIO) method to explore the model's parameter space in more detail. We have replicated the model of Bowles and Choi, and used the FIO method to identify complexities and interactions of the model previously unidentified. Our results indicate that the key parameters for the emergence of farming are group structuring, group size, conservatism, and farming-friendly property rights (lending further support to Bowles and Choi's original proposal). We also find that although advantageous, it is not essential that farming productivity be greater than foraging productivity for farming to emerge. In addition, we highlight how model behaviors can be missed when gauging parameter sensitivity via a fix-all-but-one variation approach.

Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

KEY POINTS

Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracingReflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow modelRadiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow.

Mammal diversity during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Eastern Europe

Fossil record data on the mammal diversity and species richness are of importance for the reconstruction of the evolution of terrestrial ecosystems during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transition. In Eastern Europe, the transformations during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition consisted mainly in changes in zonal structure and local fauna composition (Markova & Kolfschoten 2008). We investigated the species richness and the analogues of the α, β diversity indexes (in the sense of Whittaker 1972) of large and medium size mammals for 13 climate-stratigraphic units dating to the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, from the Hasselo Stadial (44-39 kBP) to the Subatlantic period and the present day. The biological diversity of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene thermal optimum was investigated in more detail using information about all mammalian taxa (PALEOFAUNA database; Markova 1995). One of our results show that the α, β diversity values show only a negative correlation with the temperature conditions during the Late Pleistocene, the period that is characterized by the so-called 'Mammoth Fauna' complex. For the Holocene faunas the diversity indexes are nearly independent from physical conditions; the α diversity index decreased and the β diversity index increased. The relatively low α diversity and high β diversity indexes for the present-day faunas are referred to the decrease of the population number of some forest species in historical time and the increase of the dominance of unspecialized species or the species connected with intra-zonal ecosystems. The study shows furthermore the occurrence of several East European 'centers' with a high mammal diversity, which are relatively stable during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The orientation of the boundaries between the large geographical mammal assemblages depended, particularly in the northwestern part of Eastern Europe, on the expansion of the Scandinavian ice sheet.

An extended Arctic proxy temperature database for the past 2,000 years

Robust climate reconstructions of the most recent centuries and millennia are invaluable for placing modern warming in the context of natural variability. Here we present an extended and revised database (version 1.1) of proxy temperature records recently used to reconstruct Arctic temperatures for the past 2,000 years. The datasets are presented in a machine-readable format, and have been extended with the geochronologic data and consistently generated time-uncertain ensembles, which will be useful in future analyses of the influence of geochronologic uncertainty. A standardized description of the seasonality of the temperature response for each record, as reported by the original authors, is also included to motivate a more nuanced approach to integrating records with variable seasonal sensitivities. Despite the predominance of seasonal, rather than annual, temperature responders in the database, comparisons with the instrumental record of temperature suggest that, as a whole, the datasets best record annual temperature variability across the Arctic, especially in northeast Canada and Greenland, where the density of records is highest.

Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important components of the global climate system, but its potential response to an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 remains largely unknown. One of the major limitations in ENSO prediction is our poor understanding of the relationship between ENSO variability and long-term changes in Tropical Pacific oceanography. Here we investigate this relationship using palaeorecords derived from the geochemistry of planktonic foraminifera. Our results indicate a strong negative correlation between ENSO variability and zonal gradient of sea-surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific during the last 22 ky. This strong correlation implies a mechanistic link that tightly couples zonal sea-surface temperature gradient and ENSO variability during large climate changes and provides a unique insight into potential ENSO evolution in the future by suggesting enhanced ENSO variability under a global warming scenario.

9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings

Understanding the temporal variation of cosmic radiation and solar activity during the Holocene is essential for studies of the solar-terrestrial relationship. Cosmic-ray produced radionuclides, such as (10)Be and (14)C which are stored in polar ice cores and tree rings, offer the unique opportunity to reconstruct the history of cosmic radiation and solar activity over many millennia. Although records from different archives basically agree, they also show some deviations during certain periods. So far most reconstructions were based on only one single radionuclide record, which makes detection and correction of these deviations impossible. Here we combine different (10)Be ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica with the global (14)C tree ring record using principal component analysis. This approach is only possible due to a new high-resolution (10)Be record from Dronning Maud Land obtained within the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica in Antarctica. The new cosmic radiation record enables us to derive total solar irradiance, which is then used as a proxy of solar activity to identify the solar imprint in an Asian climate record. Though generally the agreement between solar forcing and Asian climate is good, there are also periods without any coherence, pointing to other forcings like volcanoes and greenhouse gases and their corresponding feedbacks. The newly derived records have the potential to improve our understanding of the solar dynamics and to quantify the solar influence on climate.

Optimization of high-resolution continuous flow analysis for transient climate signals in ice cores

Over the past two decades, continuous flow analysis (CFA) systems have been refined and widely used to measure aerosol constituents in polar and alpine ice cores in very high-depth resolution. Here we present a newly designed system consisting of sodium, ammonium, dust particles, and electrolytic meltwater conductivity detection modules. The system is optimized for high-resolution determination of transient signals in thin layers of deep polar ice cores. Based on standard measurements and by comparing sections of early Holocene and glacial ice from Greenland, we find that the new system features a depth resolution in the ice of a few millimeters which is considerably better than other CFA systems. Thus, the new system can resolve ice strata down to 10 mm thickness and has the potential of identifying annual layers in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores throughout the last glacial cycle.

Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years

Understanding the internal ocean variability and its influence on climate is imperative for society. A key aspect concerns the enigmatic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a feature defined by a 60- to 90-year variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. The nature and origin of the AMO is uncertain, and it remains unknown whether it represents a persistent periodic driver in the climate system, or merely a transient feature. Here, we show that distinct, ∼55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years. We test and reject the hypothesis that this climate oscillation was directly forced by periodic changes in solar activity. We therefore conjecture that a quasi-persistent ∼55- to 70-year AMO, linked to internal ocean-atmosphere variability, existed during large parts of the Holocene. Our analyses further suggest that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation.

The origin of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a semi-periodic variability of sea-surface temperature, is unknown. Knudsen et al. show that 55- to 70-year climate oscillations existed throughout the last 8,000 years, suggesting that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is a permanent feature of the Holocene climate induced by internal ocean variability.

Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet

On entering an era of global warming, the stability of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is an important concern, especially in the light of new evidence of rapidly changing flow and melt conditions at the GIS margins. Studying the response of the GIS to past climatic change may help to advance our understanding of GIS dynamics. The previous interpretation of evidence from stable isotopes (delta(18)O) in water from GIS ice cores was that Holocene climate variability on the GIS differed spatially and that a consistent Holocene climate optimum-the unusually warm period from about 9,000 to 6,000 years ago found in many northern-latitude palaeoclimate records-did not exist. Here we extract both the Greenland Holocene temperature history and the evolution of GIS surface elevation at four GIS locations. We achieve this by comparing delta(18)O from GIS ice cores with delta(18)O from ice cores from small marginal icecaps. Contrary to the earlier interpretation of delta(18)O evidence from ice cores, our new temperature history reveals a pronounced Holocene climatic optimum in Greenland coinciding with maximum thinning near the GIS margins. Our delta(18)O-based results are corroborated by the air content of ice cores, a proxy for surface elevation. State-of-the-art ice sheet models are generally found to be underestimating the extent and changes in GIS elevation and area; our findings may help to improve the ability of models to reproduce the GIS response to Holocene climate.

Reduced North Atlantic deep water coeval with the glacial Lake Agassiz freshwater outburst

An outstanding climate anomaly 8200 years before the present (B.P.) in the North Atlantic is commonly postulated to be the result of weakened overturning circulation triggered by a freshwater outburst. New stable isotopic and sedimentological records from a northwest Atlantic sediment core reveal that the most prominent Holocene anomaly in bottom-water chemistry and flow speed in the deep limb of the Atlantic overturning circulation begins at approximately 8.38 thousand years B.P., coeval with the catastrophic drainage of Lake Agassiz. The influence of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water was strongly reduced at our site for approximately 100 years after the outburst, confirming the ocean's sensitivity to freshwater forcing. The similarities between the timing and duration of the pronounced deep circulation changes and regional climate anomalies support a causal link.