Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 10⁷ kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs-very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.

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Modeling of partial dome collapse of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano: implications for hazard assessment and monitoring

Over the past 9,150 years, at least 9 flank collapses have been identified in the history of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano. On account of the volcano’s current unrest, the possibility of such a flank collapse should not be dismissed in assessing hazards for future eruptive magmatic as well as non-magmatic scenarios. We combine morphological and geophysical data to identify seven unstable structures (volumes ranging from 1 × 10⁶ m³ to 100 × 10⁶ m³), including one that has a volume compatible with the last recorded flank collapse in 1530 CE. We model their dynamics and emplacement with the SHALTOP numerical model and a simple Coulomb friction law. The best-fit friction coefficient to reproduce the 1530 CE event is tan(7°) = 0.13, suggesting the transformation of the debris avalanche into a debris flow, which is confirmed by the texture of mapped deposits. Various friction angles are tested to investigate less water-rich and less mobile avalanches. The most densely populated areas of Saint-Claude and Basse-Terre, and an area of Gourbeyre south of the Palmiste ridge, are primarily exposed in the case of the more voluminous and mobile flank collapse scenarios considered. However, topography has a prominent role in controlling flow dynamics, with barrier effects and multiple channels. Classical mobility indicators, such as the Heim’s ratio, are thus not adequate for a comprehensive hazard analysis.

Abrupt changes of hydrothermal activity in a lava dome detected by combined seismic and muon monitoring

The recent 2014 eruption of the Ontake volcano in Japan recalled that hydrothermal fields of moderately active volcanoes have an unpredictable and hazardous behavior that may endanger human beings. Steam blasts can expel devastating ejecta and create craters of several tens of meters. The management of such hydrothermal events in populated areas is problematic because of their very short time of occurrence. At present no precursory signal is clearly identified as a potential warning of imminent danger. Here we show how the combination of seismic noise monitoring and muon density tomography allows to detect, with an unprecedented space and time resolution, the increase of activity (at timescales of few hours to few days) of a hydrothermal spot located 50 to 100 m below the summit of an active volcano, the La Soufrière of Guadeloupe, in the Lesser Antilles. We show how the combination of those two methods improves the risk evaluation of short-term hazards and the localization of the involved volumes in the volcano. We anticipate that the deployment of networks of various sensors including temperature probes, seismic antennas and cosmic muon telescopes around such volcanoes could valuably contribute to early warning decisions.

Explosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka

Giant mass failures of oceanic shield volcanoes that generate tsunamis potentially represent a high-magnitude but low-frequency hazard, and it is actually difficult to infer the mechanisms and dynamics controlling them. Here we document tsunami deposits at high elevation (up to 132 m) on the north-western slopes of Tenerife, Canary Islands, as a new evidence of megatsunami generated by volcano flank failure. Analyses of the tsunami deposits demonstrate that two main tsunamis impacted the coasts of Tenerife 170 kyr ago. The first tsunami was generated during the submarine stage of a retrogressive failure of the northern flank of the island, whereas the second one followed the debris avalanche of the subaerial edifice and incorporated pumices from an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption. Coupling between a massive retrogressive flank failure and a large explosive eruption represents a new type of volcano-tectonic event on oceanic shield volcanoes and a new hazard scenario.

Oceanic shield volcanoes flank failures can generate large tsunamis. Here, the authors provide evidence that two tsunamis impacted the coast of Tenerife 170 Ma, the first generated by volcano flank failure and the second following a debris avalanche of the edifice during an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption.

Muon dynamic radiography of density changes induced by hydrothermal activity at the La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano

Imaging geological structures through cosmic muon radiography is a newly developed technique which shows a great potential in volcanology. Here we demonstrate that muon radiography permits to detect and characterize mass movements in shallow hydrothermal systems of low-energy active volcanoes like the La Soufrière lava dome. We present an experiment conducted on this volcano during the Summer 2014 and bring evidence that very important density changes occurred in three domains of the lava dome. Depending on their position and on the medium porosity the volumes of these domains vary from 1 × 10⁶ m³ to 7 × 10⁶ m³. However, the total mass budget remains approximately constant : two domains show a mass loss (Δm∈ [−0.8;−0.4] × 10⁹ kg) and the third one a mass gain (Δm∈ [1.5; 2.5] × 10⁹ kg). We attribute the negative mass changes to the formation of steam in shallow hydrothermal reservoir previously partly filled with liquid water. This coincides with the emergence of new fumaroles on top of the volcano. The positive mass change is synchronized with the negative mass changes indicating that liquid water probably flowed from the two reservoirs invaded by steam toward the third reservoir.

Chapter 1 An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010

The 1995–present eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat has produced over a cubic kilometre of andesitic magma, creating a series of lava domes that were successively destroyed, with much of their mass deposited in the sea. There have been five phases of lava extrusion to form these lava domes: November 1995–March 1998; November 1999–July 2003; August 2005–April 2007; July 2008–January 2009; and October 2009–February 2010. It has been one of the most intensively studied volcanoes in the world during this time, and there are long instrumental and observational datasets. From these have sprung major new insights concerning: the cyclicity of magma transport; low-frequency earthquakes associated with conduit magma flow; the dynamics of lateral blasts and Vulcanian explosions; the role that basalt–andesite magma mingling in the mid-crust has in powering the eruption; identification using seismic tomography of the uppermost magma reservoir at a depth of 5.5 > 7.5 km; and many others. Parallel to the research effort, there has been a consistent programme of quantitative risk assessment since 1997 that has both pioneered new methods and provided a solid evidential source for the civil authority to use in mitigating the risks to the people of Montserrat.