Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness

Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) is a key climate indicator and memory source in sea ice predictions and projections, yet suffering from large observational and model uncertainty. Here, we test whether passive microwave (PMW) data constrain the long-term evolution of Arctic SIV, as recently hypothesized. We find many commonalities in Arctic SIV changes from a PMW sea ice thickness (SIT) 1992-2020 time series reconstructed with a neural network algorithm trained on lidar altimetry, and the reference PIOMAS reanalysis: relatively low differences in SIV mean (4615 km3, 37%), SIV trends (46 km3, 17%), and phased variability (r2=0.55). Key to reduced differences is the consistent evolution of many SIV contributors: seasonal and perennial ice coverage, their SIT contrast, whereas perennial SIT provides the largest remaining uncertainty source. We argue that PMW includes useful SIT information, reducing SIV uncertainty. We foresee progress from sea ice reanalyses combining dynamical models and data assimilation of PMW SIT estimates, in addition to the already assimilated PWM sea ice concentration.

GBDT Method Integrating Feature-Enhancement and Active-Learning Strategies-Sea Ice Thickness Inversion in Beaufort Sea

Sea ice, as an important component of the Earth's ecosystem, has a profound impact on global climate and human activities due to its thickness. Therefore, the inversion of sea ice thickness has important research significance. Due to environmental and equipment-related limitations, the number of samples available for remote sensing inversion is currently insufficient. At high spatial resolutions, remote sensing data contain limited information and noise interference, which seriously affect the accuracy of sea ice thickness inversion. In response to the above issues, we conducted experiments using ice draft data from the Beaufort Sea and designed an improved GBDT method that integrates feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies (IFEAL-GBDT). In this method, the incident angle and time series are used to perform spatiotemporal correction of the data, reducing both temporal and spatial impacts. Meanwhile, based on the original polarization information, effective multi-attribute features are generated to expand the information content and improve the separability of sea ice with different thicknesses. Taking into account the growth cycle and age of sea ice, attributes were added for month and seawater temperature. In addition, we studied an active learning strategy based on the maximum standard deviation to select more informative and representative samples and improve the model's generalization ability. The improved GBDT model was used for training and prediction, offering advantages in dealing with nonlinear, high-dimensional data, and data noise problems, further expanding the effectiveness of feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies. Compared with other methods, the method proposed in this paper achieves the best inversion accuracy, with an average absolute error of 8 cm and a root mean square error of 13.7 cm for IFEAL-GBDT and a correlation coefficient of 0.912. This research proves the effectiveness of our method, which is suitable for the high-precision inversion of sea ice thickness determined using Sentinel-1 data.

Analysis of Sea Ice Timing and Navigability along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2000 to 2019

The ablation of Arctic sea ice makes seasonal navigation possible in the Arctic region, which accounted for the apparent influence of sea ice concentration in the navigation of the Arctic route. This paper uses Arctic sea ice concentration daily data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019. We used a sea ice concentration threshold value of 40% to define the time window for navigating through the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP). In addition, for the year when the navigation time of the NEP is relatively abnormal, we combined with wind field, temperature, temperature anomaly, sea ice age and sea ice movement data to analyze the sea ice conditions of the NEP and obtain the main factors affecting the navigation of the NEP. The results reveal the following: (1) The sea ice concentration of the NEP varies greatly seasonally. The best month for navigation is September. The opening time of the NEP varies from late July to early September, the end of navigation is concentrated in mid-October, and the navigation time is basically maintained at more than 30 days. (2) The NEP was not navigable in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. The main factors are the high amount of multi-year ice, low temperature and the wind field blowing towards the Vilkitsky Strait and sea ice movement. The navigation time in 2012, 2015 and 2019 was longer, and the driving factors were the high temperature, weak wind and low amount of one-year ice. The navigation time in 2003, 2007 and 2013 was shorter, and the influencing factors were the strong wind field blowing towards the Vilkitsky Strait. (3) The key navigable areas of the NEP are the central part of the East Siberian Sea and the Vilkitsky Strait, and the Vilkitsky Strait has a greater impact on the NEP than the central part of the East Siberian Sea. The main reason for the high concentration of sea ice in the central part of the East Siberian Sea (2000 and 2001) was the large amount of multi-year ice. The main reason for the high concentration of sea ice in the Vilkitsky Strait (2000 to 2004 and 2007, 2013) was the strong offshore wind in summer, all of which were above 4 m s−1, pushing the sea ice near the Vilkitsky Strait to accumulate in the strait, thus affecting the opening of the NEP.

A Study of a Standalone Renewable Energy System of the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Antarctica

China has built four stations in Antarctica so far, and Zhongshan Station is the largest station among them. Continuous power supply for manned stations mainly relies on fuel. With the gradual increase in energy demand at the station and cost of fuel traffic from China to Zhongshan station in Antarctica, reducing fuel consumption and increasing green energy utilization are urgent problems. This research considers a standalone renewable energy system. The polar environments and renewable energy distribution of area of Zhongshan station are analyzed. The physical model, operation principle, and mathematical modeling of the proposed power system were designed. Low-temperature performance and state of charge (SOC) estimation method of the lead–acid battery were comprehensively tested and evaluated. A temperature control strategy was adopted to prevent the battery from low-temperature loss of the battery capacity. Energy management strategy of the power system was proposed by designing maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control strategies for wind turbine and PV array. The whole power system is broadly composed of a power generator (wind turbine and PV array), an uploading circuit, a three-phase rectifier bridge, an interleaved Buck circuit, a DC/DC conversion circuit, a switch circuit, a power supply circuit, an amplifier, a driver circuit, a voltage and current monitoring, a load, battery units and a control system. A case study in Antarctica was applied and can examine the technical feasibility of the proposed system. The results of the case study reveal that the scheme of standalone renewable energy system can satisfy the power demands of Zhongshan Station in normal operation.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Change: Contrasts, Commonalities, and Causes

Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness over the past four decades; by contrast, Antarctic sea ice has shown little overall change, but this masks large regional variability. Climate models have not captured these changes. But these differences do not represent a paradox. The processes governing, and impacts of, natural variability and human-induced changes differ markedly at the poles largely because of the ways in which differences in geography control the properties of and interactions among the atmosphere, ice, and ocean. The impact of natural variability on the ice cover is large at both poles, so modeled ice trends are not entirely inconsistent with contributions from both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. Despite this concurrence, the coupling of natural climate variability, climate feedbacks, and sea ice is not well understood, and significant biases remain in model representations of the ice cover and the processes that drive it.

Airborne Observations of Summer Thinning of Multiyear Sea Ice Originating From the Lincoln Sea

To better understand recent changes of Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, it is important to distinguish between the contributions of winter growth and summer melt to the sea ice mass balance. In this study we present a Lagrangian approach to quantify summer sea ice melt in which multiyear ice (MYI) floes that were surveyed by airborne electromagnetic thickness sounding within Nares Strait during summer were backtracked, using satellite imagery, to a region in close proximity (3-20 km) to spring ice thickness surveys carried out in the Lincoln Sea. Typical modal total MYI thicknesses, including ~0.4-m snow, ranged between 3.9 and 4.7 m in the Lincoln Sea during April. Ice-only modal thicknesses were between 2.2 and 3.0 m in Nares Strait during August. Total thinning including snow and ice was 1.3 ± 0.1 m including 0.4 ± 0.09 m of snow melt and 0.9 ± 0.2 m of ice melt. This translates to a seasonal net heat input of 305 ± 69 MJ/m2 (262 ± 60 MJ/m2 for ice only) and seasonal net heat flux of 57 ± 13 W/m2 (45 ± 10 W/m2 for ice only), which is unlikely to be explained by solar radiation fluxes alone. Furthermore, our approach provides an improvement on traditional ice mass balance buoy estimates because it integrates melt over larger spatial scales, where melt can be highly variable due to differential melt experienced between melt ponds, bare ice, hummocks, and ridges.

Design and Performance Analysis of a Multilayer Sea Ice Temperature Sensor Used in Polar Region

Temperature profiles of sea ice have been recorded more than a few decades. However, few high-precision temperature sensors can complete the observation of temperature profile of sea ice, especially in extreme environments. At present, the most widely used sea ice observation instruments can reach an accuracy of sea ice temperature measurement of 0.1 °C. In this study, a multilayer sea ice temperature sensor is developed with temperature measurement accuracy from −0.0047 °C to 0.0059 °C. The sensor system composition, structure of the thermistor string, and work mode are analyzed. The performance of the sensor system is evaluated from −50 °C to 30 °C. The temperature dependence of the constant current source, the amplification circuit, and the analog-to-digital converter (ADC) circuit are comprehensive tested and quantified. A temperature correction algorithm is designed to correct any deviation in the sensor system. A sea-ice thickness discrimination algorithm is proposed in charge of determining the thickness of sea ice automatically. The sensor system was field tested in Wuliangsuhai, Yellow River on 31 January 2018 and the second reservoir of Fen River, Yellow River on 30 January 2018. The integral practicality of this sensor system is identified and examined. The multilayer sea ice temperature sensor will provide good temperature results of sea ice and maintain stable performance in the low ambient temperature.

Design and Application of a Standalone Hybrid Wind–Solar System for Automatic Observation Systems Used in the Polar Region

Continuous power supply for unmanned and automatic observation systems without suitable energy-storage capabilities in the polar regions is an urgent problem and challenge. However, few power-supply systems can stably operate over the long term in extreme environments, despite excellent performance under normal environments. In this study, a standalone hybrid wind–solar system is proposed, based on operation analysis of the observing system in the Arctic Ocean, the polar environments, and renewable-energy distribution in the polar regions. Energy-storage technology suitable for cold regions is introduced to support the standalone hybrid wind–solar system. Mathematical models of the power system at low temperature are also proposed. The low-temperature performance and characteristics of lead–acid battery are comprehensively elucidated, and a dedicated charging strategy is developed. A hybrid wind–solar charging circuit is developed using a solar charging circuit, a wind turbine charging circuit, a driver circuit, a detection circuit, an analog-to-digital converter (ADC) circuit, and an auxiliary circuit. The low temperature stability of charging circuit is test from −50 °C to 30 °C. Temperature correction algorithm is designed to improve the efficiency of the power supply system. The power generation energy of the power system was simulated based on the monthly average renewable energy data of Zhongshan Station. A case study was applied to examine the technical feasibility of the power system in Antarctica. The five-month application results indicate that the power system based on renewable energy can maintain stable performance and provide sufficient power for the observing system in low ambient temperatures. Therefore, this power system is an ideal solution to achieve an environmentally friendly and reliable energy supply in the polar regions.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role.

Influence of ice thickness and surface properties on light transmission through Arctic sea ice

The observed changes in physical properties of sea ice such as decreased thickness and increased melt pond cover severely impact the energy budget of Arctic sea ice. Increased light transmission leads to increased deposition of solar energy in the upper ocean and thus plays a crucial role for amount and timing of sea-ice-melt and under-ice primary production. Recent developments in underwater technology provide new opportunities to study light transmission below the largely inaccessible underside of sea ice. We measured spectral under-ice radiance and irradiance using the new Nereid Under-Ice (NUI) underwater robotic vehicle, during a cruise of the R/V Polarstern to 83°N 6°W in the Arctic Ocean in July 2014. NUI is a next generation hybrid remotely operated vehicle (H-ROV) designed for both remotely piloted and autonomous surveys underneath land-fast and moving sea ice. Here we present results from one of the first comprehensive scientific dives of NUI employing its interdisciplinary sensor suite. We combine under-ice optical measurements with three dimensional under-ice topography (multibeam sonar) and aerial images of the surface conditions. We investigate the influence of spatially varying ice-thickness and surface properties on the spatial variability of light transmittance during summer. Our results show that surface properties such as melt ponds dominate the spatial distribution of the under-ice light field on small scales (<1000 m²), while sea ice-thickness is the most important predictor for light transmission on larger scales. In addition, we propose the use of an algorithm to obtain histograms of light transmission from distributions of sea ice thickness and surface albedo.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover.

Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

We present our estimates of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean ice cover from CryoSat-2 data acquired between October 2010 and May 2014. Average ice thickness and draft differences are within 0.16 m of measurements from other sources (moorings, submarine, electromagnetic sensors, IceBridge). The choice of parameters that affect the conversion of ice freeboard to thickness is discussed. Estimates between 2011 and 2013 suggest moderate decreases in volume followed by a notable increase of more than 2500 km(3) (or 0.34 m of thickness over the basin) in 2014, which could be attributed to not only a cooler summer in 2013 but also to large-scale ice convergence just west of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago due to wind-driven onshore drift. Variability of volume and thickness in the multiyear ice zone underscores the importance of dynamics in maintaining the thickness of the Arctic ice cover. Volume estimates are compared with those from ICESat as well as the trends in ice thickness derived from submarine ice draft between 1980 and 2004. The combined ICESat and CryoSat-2 record yields reduced trends in volume loss compared with the 5 year ICESat record, which was weighted by the record-setting ice extent after the summer of 2007.

Sustaining observations in the polar oceans

Polar oceans present a unique set of challenges to sustained observations. Sea ice cover restricts navigation for ships and autonomous measurement platforms alike, and icebergs present a hazard to instruments deployed in the upper ocean and in shelf seas. However, the important role of the poles in the global ocean circulation provides ample justification for sustained observations in these regions, both to monitor the rapid changes taking place, and to better understand climate processes in these traditionally poorly sampled areas. In the past, the vast majority of polar measurements took place in the summer. In recent years, novel techniques such as miniature CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) tags carried by seals have provided an explosion in year-round measurements in areas largely inaccessible to ships, and, as ice avoidance is added to autonomous profiling floats and gliders, these promise to provide further enhancements to observing systems. In addition, remote sensing provides vital information about changes taking place in sea ice cover at both poles. To make these observations sustainable into the future, improved international coordination and collaboration is necessary to gain optimum utilization of observing networks.

How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The review finishes with several conclusions and recommendations.

Molecular-dynamics simulation of clustering processes in sea-ice floes

In seasonally ice-covered seas and along the margins of perennial ice pack, i.e., in regions with medium ice concentrations, the ice cover typically consists of separate floes interacting with each other by inelastic collisions. In this paper, hitherto unexplored analogies between this type of ice cover and two-dimensional granular gases are used to formulate a model of ice dynamics at the floe level. The model consists of (i) momentum equations for floe motion between collisions, formulated in the form of a Stokes-flow problem, with floe-size-dependent time constant and equilibrium velocity, and (ii) a hard-disk collision model. The numerical algorithm developed is suitable for simulating particle-laden flow of N disk-shaped floes with arbitrary size distributions. The model is applied to study clustering phenomena in sea ice with power-law floe-size distribution. In particular, the influence of the average ice concentration A on the formation and characteristics of clusters is analyzed in detail. The results show the existence of two regimes, at low and high ice concentrations, differing in terms of the exponents of the cluster-size distribution and of the size of the largest cluster.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.