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Integrated ozone depletion as a metric for ozone recovery. Nature 2022; 608:719-723. [PMID: 36002489 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04968-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
The Montreal Protocol is successfully protecting the ozone layer. The main halogen gases responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion have been regulated under the Protocol, their combined atmospheric abundances are declining and ozone is increasing in some parts of the atmosphere1. Ozone depletion potentials2-4, relative measures of compounds' abilities to deplete stratospheric ozone, have been a key regulatory component of the Protocol in successfully guiding the phasing out in the manufacture of the most highly depleting substances. However, this latest, recovery phase in monitoring the success of the Protocol calls for further metrics. The 'delay in ozone return' has been widely used to indicate the effect of different emissions or phase-down strategies, but we argue here that it can sometimes be ambiguous or even of no use. Instead, we propose the use of an integrated ozone depletion (IOD) metric to indicate the impact of any new emission. The IOD measures the time-integrated column ozone depletion and depends only on the emission strength and the whole atmosphere and stratospheric lifetimes of the species considered. It provides a useful complementary metric of the impact of specific emissions of an ozone depleting substance for both the scientific and policy communities.
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2
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Validation and Trend Analysis of Stratospheric Ozone Data from Ground-Based Observations at Lauder, New Zealand. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13010109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Changes in stratospheric ozone have to be assessed continuously to evaluate the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol. In the southern hemisphere, few ground-based observational datasets exist, making measurements at the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) station at Lauder, New Zealand invaluable. Investigating these datasets in detail is essential to derive realistic ozone trends. We compared lidar data and microwave radiometer data with collocated Aura Microwave Limb sounder (MLS) satellite data and ERA5 reanalysis data. The detailed comparison makes it possible to assess inhomogeneities in the data. We find good agreement between the datasets but also some possible biases, especially in the ERA5 data. The data uncertainties and the inhomogeneities were then considered when deriving trends. Using two regression models from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project and from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), we estimated resulting ozone trends. Further, we assessed how trends are affected by data uncertainties and inhomogeneities. We find positive ozone trends throughout the stratosphere between 0% and 5% per decade and show that considering data uncertainties and inhomogeneities in the regression affects the resulting trends.
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3
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Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Nature 2018; 549:211-218. [PMID: 28905899 DOI: 10.1038/nature23681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2017] [Accepted: 07/31/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.
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4
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Hossaini R, Chipperfield MP, Montzka SA, Leeson AA, Dhomse SS, Pyle JA. The increasing threat to stratospheric ozone from dichloromethane. Nat Commun 2017; 8:15962. [PMID: 28654085 PMCID: PMC5490265 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2016] [Accepted: 05/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
It is well established that anthropogenic chlorine-containing chemicals contribute to ozone layer depletion. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to reductions in the atmospheric concentration of many ozone-depleting gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons. As a consequence, stratospheric chlorine levels are declining and ozone is projected to return to levels observed pre-1980 later this century. However, recent observations show the atmospheric concentration of dichloromethane—an ozone-depleting gas not controlled by the Montreal Protocol—is increasing rapidly. Using atmospheric model simulations, we show that although currently modest, the impact of dichloromethane on ozone has increased markedly in recent years and if these increases continue into the future, the return of Antarctic ozone to pre-1980 levels could be substantially delayed. Sustained growth in dichloromethane would therefore offset some of the gains achieved by the Montreal Protocol, further delaying recovery of Earth’s ozone layer. Chlorine-containing species deplete stratospheric ozone and while chlorofluorocarbons have been drastically reduced, dichloromethane concentrations have recently increased rapidly. Hossaini et al. show that continued growth at this rate could result in important delays to Antarctic ozone recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Hossaini
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK
| | - Martyn P Chipperfield
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Stephen A Montzka
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
| | - Amber A Leeson
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK
| | - Sandip S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - John A Pyle
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK.,National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK
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5
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Kuttippurath J, Nair PJ. The signs of Antarctic ozone hole recovery. Sci Rep 2017; 7:585. [PMID: 28373709 PMCID: PMC5429648 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00722-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2016] [Accepted: 03/09/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Absorption of solar radiation by stratospheric ozone affects atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, and sustains life on Earth by preventing harmful radiation from reaching the surface. Significant ozone losses due to increases in the abundances of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) were first observed in Antarctica in the 1980s. Losses deepened in following years but became nearly flat by around 2000, reflecting changes in global ODS emissions. Here we show robust evidence that Antarctic ozone has started to recover in both spring and summer, with a recovery signal identified in springtime ozone profile and total column measurements at 99% confidence for the first time. Continuing recovery is expected to impact the future climate of that region. Our results demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has indeed begun to save the Antarctic ozone layer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath
- CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India. .,LATMOS/CNRS, UPMC University of Paris 06, Paris, France.
| | - Prijitha J Nair
- CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India.,Centre for Earth Science Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, India
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6
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Antarctic ozone hole is on the mend. Nature 2016. [DOI: 10.1038/nature.2016.20183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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7
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Solomon S, Ivy DJ, Kinnison D, Mills MJ, Neely RR, Schmidt A. Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Science 2016; 353:269-74. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aae0061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 359] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2015] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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8
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Salby ML, Titova EA, Deschamps L. Changes of the Antarctic ozone hole: Controlling mechanisms, seasonal predictability, and evolution. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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9
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de Laat ATJ, van Weele M. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole: observed reduction in ozone destruction by minor sudden stratospheric warmings. Sci Rep 2012; 1:38. [PMID: 22355557 PMCID: PMC3216525 DOI: 10.1038/srep00038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2011] [Accepted: 06/21/2011] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Satellite observations show that the 2010 Antarctic ozone hole is characterized by anomalously small amounts of photochemical ozone destruction (40-60% less than the 2005-2009 average). Observations from the MLS instrument show that this is mainly related to reduced photochemical ozone destruction between 20-25 km altitude. Lower down between 15-20 km the atmospheric chemical composition and photochemical ozone destruction is unaffected. The modified chemical composition and chemistry between 20-25 km altitude in 2010 is related to the occurrence of a mid-winter minor Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). The measurements indicate that the changes in chemical composition are related to downward motion of air masses rather than horizontal mixing, and affect stratospheric chemistry for several months. Since 1979, years with similar anomalously small amounts of ozone destruction are all characterized by either minor or major SSWs, illustrating that their presence has been a necessary pre-condition for reduced Antarctic stratospheric ozone destruction.
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Affiliation(s)
- A T J de Laat
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands.
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10
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Hassler B, Daniel JS, Johnson BJ, Solomon S, Oltmans SJ. An assessment of changing ozone loss rates at South Pole: Twenty-five years of ozonesonde measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- B. Hassler
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado at Boulder; Boulder Colorado USA
- Chemical Sciences Division; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - J. S. Daniel
- Chemical Sciences Division; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - B. J. Johnson
- Global Monitoring Division; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - S. Solomon
- Chemical Sciences Division; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Boulder Colorado USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; University of Colorado at Boulder; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - S. J. Oltmans
- Global Monitoring Division; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Boulder Colorado USA
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11
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McKenzie RL, Aucamp PJ, Bais AF, Björn LO, Ilyas M, Madronich S. Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2011; 10:182-98. [DOI: 10.1039/c0pp90034f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 301] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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12
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Oman LD, Plummer DA, Waugh DW, Austin J, Scinocca JF, Douglass AR, Salawitch RJ, Canty T, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Frith S, Hardiman SC, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Olivié D, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Stolarski RS, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y, Ziemke JR. Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- L. D. Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - D. A. Plummer
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - D. W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - J. Austin
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - J. F. Scinocca
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - A. R. Douglass
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
| | - R. J. Salawitch
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - T. Canty
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - H. Akiyoshi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | | | - P. Braesicke
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | | | | | | | - S. Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - V. Eyring
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Oberpfaffenhofen Germany
| | - S. Frith
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | | | | | | | - E. Mancini
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | | | - M. Michou
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - O. Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research; Lauder New Zealand
| | - T. Nakamura
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. E. Nielsen
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | - D. Olivié
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - G. Pitari
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | - J. Pyle
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | - E. Rozanov
- Physical-Meteorological Observatory Davos, World Radiation Center; Davos Switzerland
- IAC, ETHZ; Zurich Switzerland
| | - T. G. Shepherd
- Department of Physics; University of Toronto; Toronto, Ontario Canada
| | - K. Shibata
- Meteorological Research Institute; Japan Meteorological Agency; Tsukuba Japan
| | - R. S. Stolarski
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | | | - W. Tian
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - Y. Yamashita
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. R. Ziemke
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center; University of Maryland, Baltimore County; Catonsville Maryland USA
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13
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Andrady A, Aucamp PJ, Bais AF, Ballaré CL, Björn LO, Bornman JF, Caldwell M, Cullen AP, Erickson DJ, deGruijl FR, Häder DP, Ilyas M, Kulandaivelu G, Kumar HD, Longstreth J, McKenzie RL, Norval M, Paul N, Redhwi HH, Smith RC, Solomon KR, Sulzberger B, Takizawa Y, Tang X, Teramura AH, Torikai A, van der Leun JC, Wilson SR, Worrest RC, Zepp RG. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2009. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2010; 9:275-94. [PMID: 20301813 DOI: 10.1039/b923342n] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with UV radiation and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. Since 2000, the analyses and interpretation of these effects have included interactions between UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will likely be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was that for 2006 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332). In the years in between, the EEAP produces a less detailed and shorter progress report, as is the case for this present one for 2009. A full quadrennial report will follow for 2010.
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