A Pre-Operational System Based on the Assimilation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth in the MOCAGE Chemical Transport Model

In this study we present a pre-operational forecasting assimilation system of different types of aerosols. This system has been developed within the chemistry-transport model of Météo-France, MOCAGE, and uses the assimilation of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard both Terra and Aqua. It is based on the AOD assimilation system within the MOCAGE model. It operates on a daily basis with a global configuration of 1∘×1∘ (longitude × latitude). The motivation of such a development is the capability to predict and anticipate extreme events and their impacts on the air quality and the aviation safety in the case of a huge volcanic eruption. The validation of the pre-operational system outputs has been done in terms of AOD compared against the global AERONET observations within two complete years (January 2018–December 2019). The comparison between both datasets shows that the correlation between the MODIS assimilated outputs and AERONET over the whole period of study is 0.77, whereas the biases and the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) are 0.006 and 0.135, respectively. The ability of the pre-operational system to predict extreme events in near real time such as the desert dust transport and the propagation of the biomass burning was tested and evaluated. We particularly presented and documented the desert dust outbreak which occurred over Greece in late March 2018 as well as the wildfire event which happened on Australia between July 2019 and February 2020. We only presented these two events, but globally the assimilation chain has shown that it is capable of predicting desert dust events and biomass burning aerosols which happen all over the globe.

Quantifying the direct radiative effect of absorbing aerosols for numerical weather prediction: a case study

We conceptualize aerosol radiative transfer processes arising from the hypothetical coupling of a global aerosol transport model and a global numerical weather prediction model by applying the US Naval Research Laboratory Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) and the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) meteorological and surface reflectance fields. A unique experimental design during the 2013 NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC⁴RS) field mission allowed for collocated airborne sampling by the high spectral resolution Lidar (HSRL), the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (AirMSPI), up/down shortwave (SW) and infrared (IR) broadband radiometers, as well as NASA A-Train support from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to attempt direct aerosol forcing closure. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of modeled fields to aerosol radiative fluxes and heating rates, specifically in the SW, as induced in this event from transported smoke and regional urban aerosols. Limitations are identified with respect to aerosol attribution, vertical distribution, and the choice of optical and surface polarimetric properties, which are discussed within the context of their influence on numerical weather prediction output that is particularly important as the community propels forward towards inline aerosol modeling within global forecast systems.

Identifying errors in dust models from data assimilation

Airborne mineral dust is an important component of the Earth system and is increasingly predicted prognostically in weather and climate models. The recent development of data assimilation for remotely sensed aerosol optical depths (AODs) into models offers a new opportunity to better understand the characteristics and sources of model error. Here we examine assimilation increments from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AODs over northern Africa in the Met Office global forecast model. The model underpredicts (overpredicts) dust in light (strong) winds, consistent with (submesoscale) mesoscale processes lifting dust in reality but being missed by the model. Dust is overpredicted in the Sahara and underpredicted in the Sahel. Using observations of lighting and rain, we show that haboobs (cold pool outflows from moist convection) are an important dust source in reality but are badly handled by the model's convection scheme. The approach shows promise to serve as a useful framework for future model development.