Evaluation of Zenith Tropospheric Delay Derived from ERA5 Data over China Using GNSS Observations

The latest reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA5, can provide atmospheric data for calculating Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) with hourly temporal resolution, which is a key factor in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) high-precision application. This paper is aimed at evaluating the performance of ZTD derived from ERA5 reanalysis data over China using 219 GNSS stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) covering the period from 2015 to 2016. The site-specific hourly ZTD at these stations is obtained by integration method and Saastamoinen model method on ERA5 pressure-level and surface-level reanalysis data with the temporal resolution of 1 h and the spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. Firstly, the atmospheric temperature and pressure that derived from ERA5 are compared with temperature and pressure obtained from meteorological sensors available at 193 GNSS stations. The biases are 2.31 °C and 1.26 mbar implying the accuracy and feasibility of ERA5 pressure and temperature for calculating ZTD over China. Secondly, the performance of ERA5 ZTD is systematically evaluated using ZTD from 219 GNSS sites. The average bias and Root Mean Square (RMS) of ERA5 pressure-level ZTD at all test stations in integration method are approximately 2.97 mm and 11.49 mm respectively, and those of ERA5 surface-level ZTD in model method are 7.97 mm, 39.25 mm, which indicates that ERA5 pressure-level ZTD has a higher accuracy over China. Further analysis indicates that the accuracies of ZTD derived from ERA5 pressure-level and surface-level data are approximately 13.8% and 10.9% higher than those from of ERA-Interim pressure-level and surface-level data. Moreover, ERA5 is able to accurately capture the short-term (hourly) variation of ZTD, which further indicates the better performance of ERA5. Thirdly, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ERA5 ZTD accuracy are further analyzed over China. The results show that the ZTD in the southern region has the lower accuracy compared with that in the northern region over China due to the influence of latitude and altitude. Furthermore, it is found that the ERA5 ZTD over China has obvious seasonality, with higher accuracy in winter and lower accuracy in summer.

A Validation of ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula—Ellsworth Land Region, and Its Implications for Ice Core Studies

Climate reanalyses provide key information to calibrate proxy records in regions with scarce direct observations. The climate reanalysis used to perform a proxy calibration should accurately reproduce the local climate variability. Here we present a regional scale evaluation of meteorological parameters using ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses compared to in-situ observations from 13 automatic weather stations (AWS), located in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and Ellsworth Land, Antarctica. Both reanalyses seem to perform better in the escarpment area (>1000 m a.s.l) than on the coast. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA5 over ERA-Interim. ERA5 is highly accurate, representing the magnitude and variability of near-surface air temperature and wind regimes. The higher spatial and temporal resolution provided by ERA5 reduces significantly the cold coastal biases identified in ERA-Interim and increases the accuracy representing the wind direction and wind speed in the escarpment. The slight underestimation in the wind speed obtained from the reanalyses could be attributed to an interplay of topographic factors and the effect of local wind regimes. Three sites in this region are highlighted for their potential for ice core studies. These sites are likely to provide accurate proxy calibrations for future palaeoclimatic reconstructions.

Accuracy of Balloon Trajectory Forecasts in the Lower Stratosphere

This paper investigates the accuracy of simulated long-duration super-pressure balloon trajectories in the lower stratosphere. The observed trajectories were made during the (tropical) Pre-Concordiasi and (polar) Concordiasi campaigns in 2010, while the simulated trajectories are computed using analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System model. In contrast with the polar stratosphere situation, modelling accurate winds in the tropical lower stratosphere remains challenging for numerical weather prediction systems. The accuracy of the simulated tropical trajectories are quantified with the operational products of 2010 and 2016 in order to understand the impact of model physics and vertical resolution improvements. The median errors in these trajectories are large (typically ≳ 250 km after 24 h), with a significant negative bias in longitude, for both model versions. In contrast, using analyses in which the balloon-borne winds have been assimilated reduces the median error in the balloon position after 24 h to ∼60 km. For future campaigns, we describe operational strategies that take advantage of the geographic distribution and the episodic nature of large error events to anticipate the amplitude of error in trajectory forecasts. We finally stress the importance of a high vertical resolution in the model, given the intense shears encountered in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Evaluation of Seasonal and Synoptic Changes in Snow Accumulation in Antarctica between Five Reanalyses Products and In Situ Observations

The performance of recent reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim, NCEP2, MERRA, CFSR, and JRA-55) was evaluated based on in situ observations from nine automatic weather stations and one stake network to investigate the monthly and seasonal variability of the surface mass balance in Antarctica. Synoptic precipitation simulations were also evaluated by an investigation of high precipitation events. The seasonal variations showed large fluctuations and were inconsistent at each station, probably owing to the large interannual variability of snow accumulation based on the short temporal coverage of the data. The ERA-Interim and JRA-55 datasets revealed better simulated precision, with the other three models presenting similar simulations at monthly and seasonal timescales. The JRA-55 dataset captured a greater number of synoptic high precipitation events at four of the nine stations. Such events at the other five stations were mainly captured by ERA and CFSR. The NCEP2 dataset was more weakly correlated with each station on all timescales. These results indicate that significant monthly or seasonal correlations between in situ observations and the models had little effect on the capability of the reanalyses to capture high precipitation events. The precision of the five reanalysis datasets widely fluctuated in specific regions or at specific stations at different timescales. Great caution is needed when using a single reanalysis dataset to assess the surface mass balance over all of Antarctica.

Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics

We compare herein polar processing diagnostics derived from the four most recent full-input reanalysis datasets: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis / Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). We focus on diagnostics based on temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) in the lower to middle stratosphere that are related to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation, and the strength, size, and longevity of the stratospheric polar vortex. Polar minimum temperatures (Tmin) and the area of regions having temperatures below PSC formation thresholds (APSC) show large persistent differences between the reanalyses, especially in the southern hemisphere (SH), for years prior to 1999. Average absolute differences of the reanalyses from the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) in Tmin are as large as 3 K at some levels in the SH (1.5 K in the NH), and absolute differences of reanalysis APSC from the REM up to 1.5% of a hemisphere (0.75% of a hemisphere in the NH). After 1999, the reanalyses converge toward better agreement in both hemispheres, dramatically so in the SH: Average Tmin differences from the REM are generally less than 1 K in both hemispheres, and average APSC differences less than 0.3% of a hemisphere. The comparisons of diagnostics based on isentropic PV for assessing polar vortex characteristics, including maximum PV gradients (MPVG) and the area of the vortex in sunlight (or sunlit vortex area, SVA), show more complex behavior: SH MPVG showed convergence toward better agreement with the REM after 1999, while NH MPVG differences remained largely constant over time; differences in SVA remained relatively constant in both hemispheres. While the average differences from the REM are generally small for these vortex diagnostics, understanding such differences among the reanalyses is complicated by the need to use different methods to obtain vertically-resolved PV for the different reanalyses. We also evaluated other winter season summary diagnostics, including the winter mean volume of air below PSC thresholds, and vortex decay dates. For the volume of air below PSC thresholds, the reanalyses generally agree best in the SH, where relatively small interannual variability has led to many winter seasons with similar polar processing potential and duration, and thus low sensitivity to differences in meteorological conditions among the reanalyses. In contrast, the large interannual variability of NH winters has given rise to many seasons with marginal conditions that are more sensitive to reanalysis differences. For vortex decay dates, larger differences are seen in the SH than in the NH; in general the differences in decay dates among the reanalyses follow from persistent differences in their vortex areas. Our results indicate that the transition from the reanalyses assimilating Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data to Advanced TOVS and other data around 1998 - 2000 resulted in a profound improvement in the agreement of the temperature diagnostics presented (especially in the SH) and to a lesser extent the agreement of the vortex diagnostics. We present several recommendations for using reanalyses in polar processing studies, particularly related to the sensitivity to changes in data inputs and assimilation. Because of these sensitivities, we urge great caution for studies aiming to assess trends derived from reanalysis temperatures. We also argue that one of the best ways to assess the sensitivity of scientific results on polar processing is to use multiple reanalysis datasets.