External Costs for Agriculture from Lignite Extraction from the Złoczew Deposit

In many circles, including in Poland, lignite is still viewed as a cheap source of energy, which is only possible if the external costs associated with mining and burning coal are not taken into account. In Poland, this is reflected in plans to open new Złoczew opencast lignite mines. In previous studies, the analysis of external costs has focused on the external costs of coal combustion and related pollutant emissions. This paper focuses on the extraction phase. The aim of the work here described was to estimate the external costs that agriculture may incur due to the formation of a depression funnel for the projected lignite mine in the Złoczew deposit. This paper discusses factors causing uncertainty in calculated estimates of external costs in agriculture, and characterizes the Bełchatów and Złoczew opencast mines. In the paper, a methodology for calculating external costs in livestock production is then proposed. In the next part of the study, the decrease in cereal and potato yields and in the number of cattle and pigs in the area of the cone of depression of the Bełchatów opencast mine, which has been in operation for 40 years, were estimated. The estimates obtained formed the basis for estimating external costs for the planned Złoczew lignite opencast. The analyses showed high external costs for plant production and much lower for animal production. The inclusion of the estimated external costs of 12.2 € × kWh−1 in the costs of electricity production will significantly worsen the profitability of launching this opencast. The paper discusses factors causing uncertainty in calculated estimates of external costs in agriculture, and characterizes the Bełchatów and Złoczew opencast mines. The discussion also shows that the level of losses incurred in crop production due to opencast coal mining is similar to the losses incurred in crop production in extremely dry years.

Hydrological projections in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2020 to 2050

Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff is essential for effective water resource management and planning. In this study, the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4.5 was used to dynamically downscale near-future climate projections from two global climate models to a 50-km horizontal resolution over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River (UYRB). Based on the bias-corrected climate projection results, the impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first century precipitation and temperature in the UYRB were assessed. Then, through the coupling of a large-scale hydrological model with RegCM4.5, the impacts of climate change on river flows at the outlets of the UYRB were assessed. According to the projections, the eastern UYRB will tend to be warm-dry in the near-future relative to the reference period, whereas the western UYRB will tend to be warm-humid. Precipitation will decreases at a rate of 19.05-19.25 mm/10 a, and the multiyear average annual precipitation will vary between - 0.5 and 0.5 mm/day. Temperature is projected to increases significantly at a rate of 0.38-0.52 °C/10 a, and the projected multiyear average air temperature increase is approximately 1.3-1.5 ℃. The contribution of snowmelt runoff to the annual runoff in the UYBR is only approximately 4%, whereas that to the spring runoff is approximately 9.2%. Affected by climate warming, the annual average snowmelt runoff in the basin will be reduced by 36-39%, whereas the total annual runoff will be reduced by 4.1-5%, and the extreme runoff will be slightly reduced. Areas of projected decreased runoff depth are mainly concentrated in the southeast region of the basin. The decrease in precipitation is driving this decrease in the southeast, whereas the decreased runoff depth in the northwest is mainly driven by the increase in evaporation.

The Influence of Opencast Lignite Mining Dehydration on Plant Production—A Methodological Study

In many circles, brown coal continues to be viewed as a cheap source of energy, resulting in numerous investments in new opencast brown coal mines. Such a perception of brown coal energy is only possible if the external costs associated with mining and burning coal are not considered. In past studies, external cost analysis has focused on the external costs of coal burning and associated emissions. This paper focuses on the extraction phase and assesses the external costs to agriculture associated with the resulting depression cone. This paper discusses the difficulties researchers face in estimating agricultural losses resulting from the development of a depression cone due to opencast mineral extraction. In the case of brown coal, the impacts are of a geological, natural-climatic, agricultural-productive, temporal, and spatial nature and result from a multiplicity of interacting factors. Then, a methodology for counting external costs in crop production was proposed. The next section estimates the external costs of crop production arising from the operation of opencast mines in the Konin-Turek brown coal field, which is located in central Poland. The analyses conducted showed a large decrease in grain and potato yields and no effect of the depression cone on sugar beet levels. Including the estimated external costs in the cost of producing electricity from mined brown coal would significantly worsen the profitability of that production.

Decreasing δ13C and δ15N values in four coastal species at different trophic levels indicate a fundamental food-web shift in the southern North and Baltic Seas between 1988 and 2016

Marine ecosystems are exposed to increasing human pressures and climatic change worldwide. It has therefore become essential to describe ecosystem statuses with respect to multinational protection schemes, often necessitating long-term monitoring programmes. Changes in the food-web structure, which can be monitored via stable isotope measurements, represent an important descriptor of the status of marine ecosystems. We investigated long-term changes (29 years) in isotopic values (δ13C and δ15N) in four indicative organisms at different trophic levels in the southern North and Baltic Seas: bladderwrack (Fucus vesiculosus), blue mussel (Mytilus ssp.), eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), and herring gull (Larus argentatus). Time series analyses using generalised additive models revealed largely consistent declines in δ13C and δ15N throughout all trophic levels of the coastal food web at all study sites, indicating a clear change in these coastal regions from 1988 to 2016. There were no clear long-term patterns in egg biometrics for herring gulls, except for a consistent increase in eggshell thickness. The declines in stable isotope values were in line with the results of previous long-term studies of single higher-trophic-level species, which suggested that the noted changes were mainly caused by altered foraging patterns of the studied species. The current results demonstrate that declines in δ13C and δ15N have occurred throughout the whole food web, not just in particular species. We discuss the possible reasons for the decrease in stable isotope values, including decreasing eutrophication and an increase in terrestrial carbon sources.