A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems

Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air-sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models.

Process-model simulations of cloud albedo enhancement by aerosols in the Arctic

A cloud-resolving model is used to simulate the effectiveness of Arctic marine cloud brightening via injection of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), either through geoengineering or other increased sources of Arctic aerosols. An updated cloud microphysical scheme is employed, with prognostic CCN and cloud particle numbers in both liquid and mixed-phase marine low clouds. Injection of CCN into the marine boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. Albedo increases are stronger for pure liquid clouds than mixed-phase clouds. Liquid precipitation can be suppressed by CCN injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus, the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. CCN injection into a clean regime results in a greater albedo increase than injection into a polluted regime, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol-cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, dynamical changes in circulation owing to precipitation changes are small. According to these results, which are dependent upon the representation of ice nucleation processes in the employed microphysical scheme, Arctic geoengineering is unlikely to be effective as the sole means of altering the global radiation budget but could have substantial local radiative effects.