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Abstract
When working towards regulation of supersonic aviation, a comprehensive understanding of the global climate effect of supersonic aviation is required in order to develop future regulatory issues. Such research requires a comprehensive overview of existing scientific literature having explored the climate effect of aviation. This review article provides an overview on earlier studies assessing the climate effects of supersonic aviation, comprising non-CO2 effects. An overview on the historical evaluation of research focussing on supersonic aviation and its environmental impacts is provided, followed by an overview on concepts explored and construction of emission inventories. Quantitative estimates provided for individual effects are presented and compared. Subsequently, regulatory issues related to supersonic transport are summarised. Finally, requirements for future studies, e.g., in emission scenario construction or numerical modelling of climate effects, are summarised and main conclusions discussed.
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The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink. Nature 2021; 596:384-388. [PMID: 34408332 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The control of the production of ozone-depleting substances through the Montreal Protocol means that the stratospheric ozone layer is recovering1 and that consequent increases in harmful surface ultraviolet radiation are being avoided2,3. The Montreal Protocol has co-benefits for climate change mitigation, because ozone-depleting substances are potent greenhouse gases4-7. The avoided ultraviolet radiation and climate change also have co-benefits for plants and their capacity to store carbon through photosynthesis8, but this has not previously been investigated. Here, using a modelling framework that couples ozone depletion, climate change, damage to plants by ultraviolet radiation and the carbon cycle, we explore the benefits of avoided increases in ultraviolet radiation and changes in climate on the terrestrial biosphere and its capacity as a carbon sink. Considering a range of strengths for the effect of ultraviolet radiation on plant growth8-12, we estimate that there could have been 325-690 billion tonnes less carbon held in plants and soils by the end of this century (2080-2099) without the Montreal Protocol (as compared to climate projections with controls on ozone-depleting substances). This change could have resulted in an additional 115-235 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which might have led to additional warming of global-mean surface temperature by 0.50-1.0 degrees. Our findings suggest that the Montreal Protocol may also be helping to mitigate climate change through avoided decreases in the land carbon sink.
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Dannenberg A, Zitzelsberger S. Climate experts' views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2019; 9:769-775. [PMID: 31579402 PMCID: PMC6774770 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0564-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2019] [Accepted: 07/25/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change damages are expected to increase with global warming, which could be limited directly by solar geoengineering. Here we analyse the views of 723 negotiators and scientists involved in international climate policy who will have a significant influence on whether solar geoengineering will be deployed to counter climate change. We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost-benefit analyses predict.
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Affiliation(s)
- Astrid Dannenberg
- Department of Economics, University of Kassel, 34117 Kassel, Germany
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Response of Surface Ultraviolet and Visible Radiation to Stratospheric SO2 Injections. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9110432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate modification by stratospheric SO2 injections, to form sulfate aerosols, may alter the spectral and angular distributions of the solar ultraviolet and visible radiation that reach the Earth’s surface, with potential consequences to environmental photobiology and photochemistry. We used modeling results from the CESM1(WACCM) stratospheric aerosol geoengineering large ensemble (GLENS) project, following the RCP8.5 emission scenario, and one geoengineering experiment with SO2 injections in the stratosphere, designed to keep surface temperatures at 2020 levels. Zonally and monthly averaged vertical profiles of O3, SO2, and sulfate aerosols, at 30 N and 70 N, served as input into a radiative transfer model, to compute biologically active irradiances for DNA damage (iDNA), UV index (UVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and two key tropospheric photodissociation coefficients (jO1D for O3 + hν (λ < 330 nm) → O(1D) + O2; and jNO2 for NO2 + hν (λ < 420 nm) → O(3P) + NO). We show that the geoengineering scenario is accompanied by substantial reductions in UV radiation. For example, comparing March 2080 to March 2020, iDNA decreased by 25% to 29% in the subtropics (30 N) and by 26% to 33% in the polar regions (70 N); UVI decreased by 19% to 20% at 30 N and 23% to 26% at 70 N; and jO1D decreased by 22% to 24% at 30 N and 35% to 40% at 70 N, with comparable contributions from sulfate scattering and stratospheric O3 recovery. Different responses were found for processes that depend on longer UV and visible wavelengths, as these are minimally affected by ozone; PAR and jNO2 were only slightly lower (9–12%) at 30 N, but much lower at 70 N (35–40%). Similar reductions were estimated for other months (June, September, and December). Large increases in the PAR diffuse-direct ratio occurred in agreement with previous studies. Absorption by SO2 gas had a small (~1%) effect on jO1D, iDNA, and UVI, and no effect on jNO2 and PAR.
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Anderson JG, Clapp CE. Coupling free radical catalysis, climate change, and human health. Phys Chem Chem Phys 2018; 20:10569-10587. [PMID: 29638230 DOI: 10.1039/c7cp08331a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
We present the chain of mechanisms linking free radical catalytic loss of stratospheric ozone, specifically over the central United States in summer, to increased climate forcing by CO2 and CH4 from fossil fuel use. This case directly engages detailed knowledge, emerging from in situ aircraft observations over the polar regions in winter, defining the temperature and water vapor dependence of the kinetics of heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine (HCl and ClONO2) to free radical form (ClO). Analysis is placed in the context of irreversible changes to specific subsystems of the climate, most notably coupled feedbacks that link rapid changes in the Arctic with the discovery that convective storms over the central US in summer both suppress temperatures and inject water vapor deep into the stratosphere. This places the lower stratosphere over the US in summer within the same photochemical catalytic domain as the lower stratosphere of the Arctic in winter engaging the risk of amplifying the rate limiting step in the ClO dimer catalytic mechanism by some six orders of magnitude. This transitions the catalytic loss rate of ozone in lower stratosphere over the United States in summer from HOx radical control to ClOx radical control, increasing the overall ozone loss rate by some two orders of magnitude over that of the unperturbed state. Thus we address, through a combination of observations and modeling, the mechanistic foundation defining why stratospheric ozone, vulnerable to increased climate forcing, is one of the most delicate aspects of habitability on the planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- J G Anderson
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
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Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Nature 2018; 549:211-218. [PMID: 28905899 DOI: 10.1038/nature23681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2017] [Accepted: 07/31/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.
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Anderson JG, Weisenstein DK, Bowman KP, Homeyer CR, Smith JB, Wilmouth DM, Sayres DS, Klobas JE, Leroy SS, Dykema JA, Wofsy SC. Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:E4905-E4913. [PMID: 28584119 PMCID: PMC5488921 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1619318114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4.
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Affiliation(s)
- James G Anderson
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Debra K Weisenstein
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Kenneth P Bowman
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843
| | | | - Jessica B Smith
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - David M Wilmouth
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - David S Sayres
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - J Eric Klobas
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Stephen S Leroy
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - John A Dykema
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Steven C Wofsy
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
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Kravitz B, Robock A, Shindell DT, Miller MA. Sensitivity of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon to aerosol size and altitude of injection. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Zubiaurre I, Calvo N. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki signal in the stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Steffen W, Grinevald J, Crutzen P, McNeill J. The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2011; 369:842-67. [PMID: 21282150 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 233] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The human imprint on the global environment has now become so large and active that it rivals some of the great forces of Nature in its impact on the functioning of the Earth system. Although global-scale human influence on the environment has been recognized since the 1800s, the term Anthropocene, introduced about a decade ago, has only recently become widely, but informally, used in the global change research community. However, the term has yet to be accepted formally as a new geological epoch or era in Earth history. In this paper, we put forward the case for formally recognizing the Anthropocene as a new epoch in Earth history, arguing that the advent of the Industrial Revolution around 1800 provides a logical start date for the new epoch. We then explore recent trends in the evolution of the Anthropocene as humanity proceeds into the twenty-first century, focusing on the profound changes to our relationship with the rest of the living world and on early attempts and proposals for managing our relationship with the large geophysical cycles that drive the Earth's climate system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Will Steffen
- Climate Change Institute, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
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Jurkat T, Voigt C, Arnold F, Schlager H, Aufmhoff H, Schmale J, Schneider J, Lichtenstern M, Dörnbrack A. Airborne stratospheric ITCIMS measurements of SO2, HCl, and HNO3in the aged plume of volcano Kasatochi. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Matthes K, Marsh DR, Garcia RR, Kinnison DE, Sassi F, Walters S. Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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