Resolving Magnetopause Shadowing Using Multimission Measurements of Phase Space Density

Loss mechanisms act independently or in unison to drive rapid loss of electrons in the radiation belts. Electrons may be lost by precipitation into the Earth's atmosphere, or through the magnetopause into interplanetary space-a process known as magnetopause shadowing. While magnetopause shadowing is known to produce dropouts in electron flux, it is unclear if shadowing continues to remove particles in tandem with electron acceleration processes, limiting the overall flux increase. We investigated the contribution of shadowing to overall radiation belt fluxes throughout a geomagnetic storm starting on the 7 September 2017. We use new, multimission phase space density calculations to decipher electron dynamics during each storm phase and identify features of magnetopause shadowing during both the net-loss and the net-acceleration storm phases on sub-hour time scales. We also highlight two distinct types of shadowing; "direct," where electrons are lost as their orbit intersects the magnetopause, and "indirect," where electrons are lost through ULF wave driven radial transport toward the magnetopause boundary.

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.