Dynamic earthquake rupture preserved in a creeping serpentinite shear zone

Laboratory experiments on serpentinite suggest that extreme dynamic weakening at earthquake slip rates is accompanied by amorphisation, dehydration and possible melting. However, hypotheses arising from experiments remain untested in nature, because earthquake ruptures have not previously been recognised in serpentinite shear zones. Here we document the progressive formation of high-temperature reaction products that formed by coseismic amorphisation and dehydration in a plate boundary-scale serpentinite shear zone. The highest-temperature products are aggregates of nanocrystalline olivine and enstatite, indicating minimum peak coseismic temperatures of ca. 925 ± 60 °C. Modelling suggests that frictional heating during earthquakes of magnitude 2.7–4 can satisfy the petrological constraints on the coseismic temperature profile, assuming that coseismic fluid storage capacity and permeability are increased by the development of reaction-enhanced porosity. Our results indicate that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones, and that the signatures of transient frictional heating can be preserved in the fault rock record.

Creeping serpentinite shear zones may host large earthquakes, but direct evidence of frictional heating and rupture have been missing. Here, the authors demonstrate via laboratory experiments that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones shown by high-temperature reaction products.

Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions

Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30 m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip.