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Xiong P, Tong L, Zhang K, Shen X, Battiston R, Ouzounov D, Iuppa R, Crookes D, Long C, Zhou H. Towards advancing the earthquake forecasting by machine learning of satellite data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 771:145256. [PMID: 33736153 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2020] [Revised: 01/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Earthquakes have become one of the leading causes of death from natural hazards in the last fifty years. Continuous efforts have been made to understand the physical characteristics of earthquakes and the interaction between the physical hazards and the environments so that appropriate warnings may be generated before earthquakes strike. However, earthquake forecasting is not trivial at all. Reliable forecastings should include the analysis and the signals indicating the coming of a significant quake. Unfortunately, these signals are rarely evident before earthquakes occur, and therefore it is challenging to detect such precursors in seismic analysis. Among the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and remote-sensing anomalies are mostly oriented towards anomaly identification and analysis of a single physical parameter. Many analyses are based on singular events, which provide a lack of understanding of this complex natural phenomenon because usually, the earthquake signals are hidden in the environmental noise. The universality of such analysis still is not being demonstrated on a worldwide scale. In this paper, we investigate physical and dynamic changes of seismic data and thereby develop a novel machine learning method, namely Inverse Boosting Pruning Trees (IBPT), to issue short-term forecast based on the satellite data of 1371 earthquakes of magnitude six or above due to their impact on the environment. We have analyzed and compared our proposed framework against several states of the art machine learning methods using ten different infrared and hyperspectral measurements collected between 2006 and 2013. Our proposed method outperforms all the six selected baselines and shows a strong capability in improving the likelihood of earthquake forecasting across different earthquake databases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pan Xiong
- Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China; School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | - Lei Tong
- School of Informatics, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Kun Zhang
- School of Electrical Engineering, Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Xuhui Shen
- National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing, China.
| | - Roberto Battiston
- Department of Physics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy; National Institute for Nuclear Physics, the Trento Institute for Fundamental Physics and Applications, Trento, Italy
| | - Dimitar Ouzounov
- Center of Excellence in Earth Systems Modeling & Observations, Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA
| | - Roberto Iuppa
- Department of Physics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy; National Institute for Nuclear Physics, the Trento Institute for Fundamental Physics and Applications, Trento, Italy
| | - Danny Crookes
- School of Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | - Cheng Long
- School of Computer Science and Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
| | - Huiyu Zhou
- School of Informatics, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
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Dessler AE. A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade. Science 2010; 330:1523-7. [PMID: 21148386 DOI: 10.1126/science.1192546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 166] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity are uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in the long-term cloud feedback. I estimated the magnitude of the cloud feedback in response to short-term climate variations by analyzing the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget from March 2000 to February 2010. Over this period, the short-term cloud feedback had a magnitude of 0.54 ± 0.74 (2σ) watts per square meter per kelvin, meaning that it is likely positive. A small negative feedback is possible, but one large enough to cancel the climate's positive feedbacks is not supported by these observations. Both long- and short-wave components of short-term cloud feedback are also likely positive. Calculations of short-term cloud feedback in climate models yield a similar feedback. I find no correlation in the models between the short- and long-term cloud feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- A E Dessler
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
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Huang X, Loeb NG, Yang W. Spectrally resolved fluxes derived from collocated AIRS and CERES measurements and their application in model evaluation: 2. Cloudy sky and band-by-band cloud radiative forcing over the tropical oceans. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013932] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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