Monte Carlo Simulations in Aviation Contrail Study: A Review

This article provides a review of the role of stochastic approaches, in particular Monte Carlo calculations, in the study of aviation-induced contrails at different characteristic lengths, ranging from micrometers to the planetary scale. Pioneered in the 1960s by Bird, Direct Simulation Monte Carlo has for long time been considered unfeasible in extended dispersed-phase systems as clouds. Due to the impressive increase in computational power, Lagrangian Monte Carlo approaches are currently available, even for studying cloud formation and evolution. Some aspects of these new approaches are reviewed after a detailed introduction to the topic of aircraft-induced cloudiness. The role of Monte Carlo approaches in reducing the different source of uncertainty about the contribution of aviation contrails to climate change is introduced. Perspectives on their role in future experimental and theoretical studies are discussed throughout the paper.

Combining In Situ and Satellite Observations to Understand the Vertical Structure of Tropical Anvil Cloud Microphysical Properties During the TC4 Experiment

Tropical anvil clouds have a profound impact on Earth's weather and climate. Their role in Earth's energy balance and hydrologic cycle is heavily modulated by the vertical structure of the microphysical properties for various hydrometeors in these clouds and their dependence on the ambient environmental conditions. Accurate representations of the variability and covariability of such vertical structures are key to both the satellite remote sensing of cloud and precipitation and numerical modeling of weather and climate, which remain a challenge. This study presents a new method to combine vertically resolved observations from CloudSat radar reflectivity and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud masks with probability distributions of cloud microphysical properties and the ambient atmospheric conditions from detailed in situ measurements on tropical anvils sampled during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) mission. We focus on the microphysical properties of the vertical distribution of ice water content, particle size distributions, and effective sizes for different hydrometeors, including ice particles and supercooled liquid droplets. Results from this method are compared with those from in situ data alone and various CloudSat/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation cloud retrievals. The sampling limitation of the field experiment and algorithm limitations in the current retrievals is highlighted, especially for the liquid cloud particles, while a generally good agreement with ice cloud microphysical properties is seen from different methods. While the method presented in this study is applied to tropical anvil clouds observed during TC4, it can be readily employed to study a broad range of ice clouds sampled by various field campaigns.

Water Vapor, Clouds, and Saturation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

The goal of this investigation is to understand the mechanism behind the observed high relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) in the tropical region between ~14 km (150 hPa) and the tropopause, often referred to as the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). As shown by satellite, aircraft and balloon observations, high (>80%) RHi regions are widespread within the TTL. Regions with the highest RHi are co-located with extensive cirrus. During boreal winter, the TTL RHi is highest over the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) with a weaker maximum over South America and Africa. In the winter, TTL temperatures are coldest and upward motion is the greatest in the TWP. It is this upward motion, driving humid air into the colder upper troposphere that produces the persistent high RHi and cirrus formation. Back trajectory calculations show that comparable adiabatic and diabatic processes contribute to this upward motion. We construct a bulk model of TWP TTL water vapor transport that includes cloud nucleation and ice microphysics that quantifies how upward motion drives the persistent high RHi in the TTL region. We find that atmospheric waves triggering cloud formation regulate the RHi, and that convection dehydrates the TTL. Our forward domain-filling trajectory (FDF) model is used to more precisely simulate the TTL spatial and vertical distribution of RHi. The observed RHi distribution is reproduced by the model and we show that convection increases RHi below the base of the TTL with little impact on the RHi in the TTL region.

CALIPSO (IIR-CALIOP) Retrievals of Cirrus Cloud Ice Particle Concentrations

A new satellite remote sensing method is described whereby the sensitivity of thermal infrared wave resonance absorption to small ice crystals is exploited to estimate cirrus cloud ice particle number concentration N, effective diameter De, and ice water content IWC. This method uses co-located observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and from the CALIOP (Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) polar orbiting satellite, employing IIR channels at 10.6 μm and 12.05 μm. Using particle size distributions measured over several flights of the TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) and the mid-latitudes SPARTICUS (Small Particles in Cirrus) field campaigns, we show for the first time that N/IWC is tightly related to βeff; the ratio of effective absorption optical depths at 12.05 μm and 10.6 μm. Relationships developed from in situ aircraft measurements are applied to βeff derived from IIR measurements to retrieve N. This satellite remote sensing method is constrained by measurements of βeff from the IIR and is by essence sensitive to the smallest ice crystals. Retrieval uncertainties are discussed, including uncertainties related to in situ measurement of small ice crystals (D < 15 µm), which are studied through comparisons with IIR βeff. The method is applied here to single-layered semi-transparent clouds having a visible optical depth between about 0.3 and 3, where cloud base temperature is ≤ 235 K. Two years of CALIPSO data have been analyzed for the years 2008 and 2013, with the dependence of cirrus cloud N and De on altitude, temperature, latitude, season (winter vs. summer) and topography (land vs. ocean) described. The results for the mid-latitudes show a considerable dependence on season. In the high latitudes, N tends to be highest and De smallest, whereas the opposite is true for the tropics. The frequency of occurrence of these relatively thick cirrus clouds exhibited a strong seasonal dependence in the high latitudes, with the occurrence frequency during Arctic winter being at least twice that of any other season. Processes that could potentially explain some of these micro-and macroscopic cloud phenomena are discussed.

Microphysical Properties of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) play an important role in determining the composition of stratospheric air through dehydration of tropospheric air entering the stratosphere. This dehydration affects Earth's energy budget and climate, yet uncertainties remain regarding the microphysical processes that govern TTL cirrus. TTL cirrus were sampled with the NASA Global Hawk UAV for over 30 hr in the Western Pacific in 2014 during the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. In situ measurements by a Fast Cloud Droplet Probe and Hawkeye probe (combination Fast Cloud Droplet Probe, Two-Dimensional Stereo optical array probe, and Cloud Particle Imager) provided particle concentrations and sizing between 1- and 1,280-μm diameter and high resolution images for habit identification. We present the variability in ice concentrations, size distributions, and habits as functions of temperature, altitude, and time since convective influence. Observed ice particles were predominantly small and quasi-spheroidal in shape, with the percentage of quasi-spheroids increasing with decreasing temperature. In comparison to the large fraction of the population consisting of quasi-spheroids, faceted habits (columns, plates, rosettes, and budding rosettes) constituted a smaller percentage of the overall population and exhibited the opposite correlation with temperature. The trend of higher percentages of faceted crystals occurring at warmer temperatures may be due to diffusional growth or aggregation as particles descend through cloud, and/or the more rapid diffusional growth rate at warmer temperatures. Sampling was typically well away from deep convection, however, and very few aggregates were observed, so the trend of higher percentages of faceted habits is likely attributable to diffusional growth.

Saharan dust, convective lofting, aerosol enhancement zones, and potential impacts on ice nucleation in the tropical upper troposphere

Dry aerosol size distributions and scattering coefficients were measured on 10 flights in 32 clear-air regions adjacent to tropical storm anvils over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Aerosol properties in these regions were compared with those from background air in the upper troposphere at least 40 km from clouds. Median values for aerosol scattering coefficient and particle number concentration >0.3 μm diameter were higher at the anvil edges than in background air, showing that convective clouds loft particles from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere. These differences are statistically significant. The aerosol enhancement zones extended ~10-15 km horizontally and ~0.25 km vertically below anvil cloud edges but were not due to hygroscopic growth since particles were measured under dry conditions. Number concentrations of particles >0.3 μm diameter were enhanced more for the cases where Saharan dust layers were identified below the clouds with airborne lidar. Median number concentrations in this size range increased from ~100 l-1 in background air to ~400 l-1 adjacent to cloud edges with dust below, with larger enhancements for stronger storm systems. Integration with satellite cloud frequency data indicates that this transfer of large particles from low to high altitudes by convection has little impact on dust concentrations within the Saharan Air Layer itself. However, it can lead to substantial enhancement in large dust particles and, therefore, heterogeneous ice nuclei in the upper troposphere over the Atlantic. This may induce a cloud/aerosol feedback effect that could impact cloud properties in the region and downwind.

Cirrus Clouds

The goal of this chapter is to synthesize information about what is now known about one of the three main types of clouds, cirrus, and to identify areas where more knowledge is needed. Cirrus clouds, composed of ice particles, form in the upper troposphere, where temperatures are generally below −30°C. Satellite observations show that the maximum-occurrence frequency of cirrus is near the tropics, with a large latitudinal movement seasonally. In situ measurements obtained over a wide range of cirrus types, formation mechanisms, temperatures, and geographical locations indicate that the ice water content and particle size generally decrease with decreasing temperature, whereas the ice particle concentration is nearly constant or increases slightly with decreasing temperature. High ice concentrations, sometimes observed in strong updrafts, result from homogeneous nucleation. The satellite-based and in situ measurements indicate that cirrus ice crystals typically differ from the simple, idealized geometry for smooth hexagonal shapes, indicating complexity and/or surface roughness. Their shapes significantly impact cirrus radiative properties and feedbacks to climate. Cirrus clouds, one of the most uncertain components of general circulation models (GCM), pose one of the greatest challenges in predicting the rate and geographical pattern of climate change. Improved measurements of the properties and size distributions and surface structure of small ice crystals (about 20 μm) and identifying the dominant ice nucleation process (heterogeneous versus homogeneous ice nucleation) under different cloud dynamical forcings will lead to a better representation of their properties in GCM and in modeling their current and future effects on climate.

An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation

Partitioning of convective ice into precipitating and detrained condensate presents a challenge for GCMs since partitioning depends on the strength and microphysics of the convective updraft. It is an important issue because detrainment of ice from updrafts influences the development of stratiform anvils, impacts radiation, and can affect GCM climate sensitivity. Recent studies have shown that the CMIP5 configurations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM simulated upper-tropospheric ice water content (IWC) that exceeded an estimated upper bound by a factor of 2. Partly in response to this bias, a new GCM parameterization of convective cloud ice has been developed that incorporates new ice particle fall speeds and convective outflow particle size distributions (PSDs) from the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), DOE ARM-NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), and DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) field campaigns. The new parameterization assumes a normalized gamma PSD with two novel developments: no explicit assumption for particle habit in the calculation of mass distributions, and a formulation for translating ice particle fall speeds as a function of maximum diameter into fall speeds as a function of melted-equivalent diameter. Two parameters (particle volume- and projected area-weighted equivalent diameter) are diagnosed as a function of temperature and IWC in the convective plume, and these parameters constrain the shape and scale of the normalized gamma PSD. The diagnosed fall speeds and PSDs are combined with the GCM's parameterized convective updraft vertical velocity to partition convective updraft condensate into precipitating and detrained components. A 5-yr prescribed sea surface temperature GCM simulation shows a 30%-50% decrease in upper-tropospheric deep convective IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean ice water path into closer agreement with CloudSat best estimates.

Vertical variation of ice particle size in convective cloud tops

A novel technique is used to estimate derivatives of ice effective radius with respect to height near convective cloud tops (dr_e /dz) from airborne shortwave reflectance measurements and lidar. Values of dr_e /dz are about -6 μm/km for cloud tops below the homogeneous freezing level, increasing to near 0 μm/km above the estimated level of neutral buoyancy. Retrieved dr_e /dz compares well with previously documented remote sensing and in situ estimates. Effective radii decrease with increasing cloud top height, while cloud top extinction increases. This is consistent with weaker size sorting in high, dense cloud tops above the level of neutral buoyancy where fewer large particles are present, and with stronger size sorting in lower cloud tops that are less dense. The results also confirm that cloud-top trends of effective radius can generally be used as surrogates for trends with height within convective cloud tops. These results provide valuable observational targets for model evaluation.

On averaging aspect ratios and distortion parameters over ice crystal population ensembles for estimating effective scattering asymmetry parameters

The use of ensemble-average values of aspect ratio and distortion parameter of hexagonal ice prisms for the estimation of ensemble-average scattering asymmetry parameters is evaluated. Using crystal aspect ratios greater than unity generally leads to ensemble-average values of aspect ratio that are inconsistent with the ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. When a definition of aspect ratio is used that limits the aspect ratio to below unity (α_≤1) for both hexagonal plates and columns, the effective asymmetry parameters calculated using ensemble-average aspect ratios are generally consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters, especially if aspect ratios are geometrically averaged. Ensemble-average distortion parameters generally also yield effective asymmetry parameters that are largely consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. In the case of mixtures of plates and columns, it is recommended to geometrically average the α_≤1 aspect ratios and to subsequently calculate the effective asymmetry parameter using a column or plate geometry when the contribution by columns to a given mixture's total projected area is greater or lower than 50%, respectively. In addition, we show that ensemble-average aspect ratios, distortion parameters and asymmetry parameters can generally be retrieved accurately from simulated multi-directional polarization measurements based on mixtures of varying columns and plates. However, such retrievals tend to be somewhat biased toward yielding column-like aspect ratios. Furthermore, generally large retrieval errors can occur for mixtures with approximately equal contributions of columns and plates and for ensembles with strong contributions of thin plates.

On polarimetric radar signatures of deep convection for model evaluation: columns of specific differential phase observed during MC3E

The representation of deep convection in general circulation models is in part informed by cloud-resolving models (CRMs) that function at higher spatial and temporal resolution; however, recent studies have shown that CRMs often fail at capturing the details of deep convection updrafts. With the goal of providing constraint on CRM simulation of deep convection updrafts, ground-based remote-sensing observations are analyzed and statistically correlated for four deep convection events observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). Since positive values of specific differential phase (K_DP) observed above the melting level are associated with deep convection updraft cells, so-called "K_DP columns" are analyzed using two scanning polarimetric radars in Oklahoma: the National Weather Service Vance WSR-88D (KVNX) and the Department of Energy C-band Scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Precipitation Radar (C-SAPR). KVNX and C-SAPR K_DP volumes and columns are then statistically correlated with vertical winds retrieved via multi-Doppler wind analysis, lightning flash activity derived from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, and KVNX differential reflectivity (Z_DR). Results indicate strong correlations of K_DP volume above the melting level with updraft mass flux, lightning flash activity, and intense rainfall. Analysis of K_DP columns reveals signatures of changing updraft properties from one storm event to another as well as during event evolution. Comparison of Z_DR to K_DP shows commonalities in information content of each, as well as potential problems with Z_DR associated with observational artifacts.