Storstrømmen and L. Bistrup Bræ, North Greenland, Protected From Warm Atlantic Ocean Waters

Storstrømmen and L. Bistrup Bræ are 20- and 10-km wide, surge type glaciers in North Greenland in quiescent phase that terminate in the southernmost floating ice tongue in East Greenland. Novel multi-beam echo sounding data collected in August 2020 indicate a seabed at 350-400 m depth along a relatively uniform ice shelf front, 100 m deeper than expected, but surrounded by shallower terrain (<100 m) over a 30-km wide region that blocks the access of warm, salty, subsurface Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) at +1.6°C. Conductivity temperature depth data reveal waters in front of the glaciers at -1.8°C not connected to AIW in the outer fjord, Dove Bugt. The recent grounding line retreat of the glaciers is attributed to glacier thinning at its ablation rate, with little influence of ocean waters, which illustrates the fundamental importance of knowing the bathymetry of glacial fjords.

Retreat of Humboldt Gletscher, North Greenland, Driven by Undercutting From a Warmer Ocean

Humboldt Gletscher is a 100-km wide, slow-moving glacier in north Greenland which holds a 19-cm global sea level equivalent. Humboldt has been the fourth largest contributor to sea level rise since 1972 but the cause of its mass loss has not been elucidated. Multi-beam echo sounding data collected in 2019 indicate a seabed 200 m deeper than previously known. Conductivity temperature depth data reveal the presence of warm water of Atlantic origin at 0°C at the glacier front and a warming of the ocean waters by 0.9 ± 0.1°C since 1962. Using an ocean model, we reconstruct grounded ice undercutting by the ocean, combine it with calculated retreat caused by ice thinning to floatation, and are able to fully explain the observed retreat. Two thirds of the retreat are caused by undercutting of grounded ice, which is a physical process not included in most ice sheet models.

Evidence for influx of Atlantic water masses to the Labrador Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23-19,000 year BP) designates a period of extensive glacial extent and very cold conditions on the Northern Hemisphere. The strength of ocean circulation during this period has been highly debated. Based on investigations of two marine sediment cores from the Davis Strait (1033 m water depth) and the northern Labrador Sea (2381 m), we demonstrate a significant influx of Atlantic-sourced water at both subsurface and intermediate depths during the LGM. Although surface-water conditions were cold and sea-ice loaded, the lower strata of the (proto) West Greenland Current carried a significant Atlantic (Irminger Sea-derived) Water signal, while at the deeper site the sea floor was swept by a water mass comparable with present Northeast Atlantic Deep Water. The persistent influx of these Atlantic-sourced waters entrained by boundary currents off SW Greenland demonstrates an active Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the LGM. Immediately after the LGM, deglaciation was characterized by a prominent deep-water ventilation event and potentially Labrador Sea Water formation, presumably related to brine formation and/or hyperpycnal meltwater flows. This was followed by a major re-arrangement of deep-water masses most likely linked to increased overflow at the Greenland-Scotland Ridge after ca 15 kyr BP.

Bathymetry of Northwest Greenland Using “Ocean Melting Greenland” (OMG) High-Resolution Airborne Gravity and Other Data

Marine-terminating glaciers dominate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise. Widespread glacier acceleration has been linked to the warming of ocean waters around the periphery of Greenland but a lack of information on the bathymetry of the continental shelf and glacial fjords has limited our ability to understand how subsurface, warm, salty ocean waters of Atlantic origin (AW) reach the glaciers and melt them from below. Here, we employ high-resolution, airborne gravity data (AIRGrav) in combination with multibeam echo sounding (MBES) data, to infer the bathymetry of the coastal areas of Northwest Greenland for NASA’s Ocean Melting Greenland (OMG) mission. High-resolution, AIRGrav data acquired on a 2 km spacing, 150 m ground clearance, with 1.5 mGal crossover error, is inverted in three dimensions to map the bathymetry. To constrain the inversion away from MBES data, we compare two methods: one based on the Direct Current (DC) shift of the gravity field (absolute minus observed gravity) and another based on the density of the bedrock. We evaluate and compare the two methods in areas with complete MBES coverage. We find the lowest standard error in bed elevation (±60 m) using the DC shift method. When applied to the entire coast of Northwest Greenland, the three-dimensional inversion reveals a complex network of connected sea bed channels, not known previously, that provide natural and varied pathways for AW to reach the glaciers across the continental shelf. The study demonstrates that the gravity approach offers an efficient and practical alternative to extensive ship mapping in ice-filled waters to obtain information critical to understanding and modeling ice-ocean interaction along ice sheet margins.

Vulnerability of Southeast Greenland Glaciers to Warm Atlantic Water From Operation IceBridge and Ocean Melting Greenland Data

We employ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Operation IceBridge high-resolution airborne gravity from 2016, NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland bathymetry from 2015, ice thickness from Operation IceBridge from 2010 to 2015, and BedMachine v3 to analyze 20 major southeast Greenland glaciers. The results reveal glacial fjords several hundreds of meters deeper than previously thought; the full extent of the marine-based portions of the glaciers; deep troughs enabling warm, salty Atlantic Water (AW) to reach the glacier fronts and melt them from below; and few shallow sills that limit the access of AW. The new oceanographic and topographic data help to fully resolve the complex pattern of historical ice front positions from the 1930s to 2017: glaciers exposed to AW and resting on retrograde beds have retreated rapidly, while glaciers perched on shallow sills or standing in colder waters or with major sills in the fjords have remained stable.

Exceptional 20th century glaciological regime of a major SE Greenland outlet glacier

The early 2000s accelerated ice-mass loss from large outlet glaciers in W and SE Greenland has been linked to warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. To investigate the uniqueness of this event, we extend the record of glacier and ocean changes back 1700 years by analyzing a sediment core from Sermilik Fjord near Helheim Glacier in SE Greenland. We show that multidecadal to centennial increases in alkenone-inferred Atlantic Water SSTs on the shelf occurred at times of reduced solar activity during the Little Ice Age, when the subpolar gyre weakened and shifted westward promoted by atmospheric blocking events. Helheim Glacier responded to many of these episodes with increased calving, but despite earlier multidecadal warming episodes matching the 20^th century high SSTs in magnitude, the glacier behaved differently during the 20^th century. We suggest the presence of a floating ice tongue since at least 300 AD lasting until 1900 AD followed by elevated 20^th century glacier calving due to the loss of the tongue. We attribute this regime shift to 20^th century unprecedented low sea-ice occurrence in the East Greenland Current and conclude that properties of this current are important for the stability of the present ice tongues in NE Greenland.

Minimal Holocene retreat of large tidewater glaciers in Køge Bugt, southeast Greenland

Køge Bugt, in southeast Greenland, hosts three of the largest glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet; these have been major contributors to ice loss in the last two decades. Despite its importance, the Holocene history of this area has not been investigated. We present a 9100 year sediment core record of glaciological and oceanographic changes from analysis of foraminiferal assemblages, the abundance of ice-rafted debris, and sortable silt grain size data. Results show that ice-rafted debris accumulated constantly throughout the core; this demonstrates that glaciers in Køge Bugt remained in tidewater settings throughout the last 9100 years. This observation constrains maximum Holocene glacier retreat here to less than 6 km from present-day positions. Retreat was minimal despite oceanic and climatic conditions during the early-Holocene that were at least as warm as the present-day. The limited Holocene retreat of glaciers in Køge Bugt was controlled by the subglacial topography of the area; the steeply sloping bed allowed glaciers here to stabilise during retreat. These findings underscore the need to account for individual glacier geometry when predicting future behaviour. We anticipate that glaciers in Køge Bugt will remain in stable configurations in the near-future, despite the predicted continuation of atmospheric and oceanic warming.

Dynamics of glacier calving at the ungrounded margin of Helheim Glacier, southeast Greenland

During summer 2013 we installed a network of 19 GPS nodes at the ungrounded margin of Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland together with three cameras to study iceberg calving mechanisms. The network collected data at rates up to every 7 s and was designed to be robust to loss of nodes as the glacier calved. Data collection covered 55 days, and many nodes survived in locations right at the glacier front to the time of iceberg calving. The observations included a number of significant calving events, and as a consequence the glacier retreated ~1.5 km. The data provide real-time, high-frequency observations in unprecedented proximity to the calving front. The glacier calved by a process of buoyancy-force-induced crevassing in which the ice downglacier of flexion zones rotates upward because it is out of buoyant equilibrium. Calving then occurs back to the flexion zone. This calving process provides a compelling and complete explanation for the data. Tracking of oblique camera images allows identification and characterisation of the flexion zones and their propagation downglacier. Interpretation of the GPS data and camera data in combination allows us to place constraints on the height of the basal cavity that forms beneath the rotating ice downglacier of the flexion zone before calving. The flexion zones are probably formed by the exploitation of basal crevasses, and theoretical considerations suggest that their propagation is strongly enhanced when the glacier base is deeper than buoyant equilibrium. Thus, this calving mechanism is likely to dominate whenever such geometry occurs and is of increasing importance in Greenland.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Recharge of a subglacial lake by surface meltwater in northeast Greenland

In a warming climate, surface meltwater production on large ice sheets is expected to increase. If this water is delivered to the ice sheet base it may have important consequences for ice dynamics. For example, basal water distributed in a diffuse network can decrease basal friction and accelerate ice flow, whereas channelized basal water can move quickly to the ice margin, where it can alter fjord circulation and submarine melt rates. Less certain is whether surface meltwater can be trapped and stored in subglacial lakes beneath large ice sheets. Here we show that a subglacial lake in Greenland drained quickly, as seen in the collapse of the ice surface, and then refilled from surface meltwater input. We use digital elevation models from stereo satellite imagery and airborne measurements to resolve elevation changes during the evolution of the surface and basal hydrologic systems at the Flade Isblink ice cap in northeast Greenland. During the autumn of 2011, a collapse basin about 70 metres deep and about 0.4 cubic kilometres in volume formed near the southern summit of the ice cap as a subglacial lake drained into a nearby fjord. Over the next two years, rapid uplift of the floor of the basin (which is approximately 8.4 square kilometres in area) occurred as surface meltwater flowed into crevasses around the basin margin and refilled the subglacial lake. Our observations show that surface meltwater can be trapped and stored at the bed of an ice sheet. Sensible and latent heat released by this trapped meltwater could soften nearby colder basal ice and alter downstream ice dynamics. Heat transport associated with meltwater trapped in subglacial lakes should be considered when predicting how ice sheet behaviour will change in a warming climate.

Future sea-level rise from Greenland's main outlet glaciers in a warming climate

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Ice sheets viewed from the ocean: the contribution of marine science to understanding modern and past ice sheets

Over the last two decades, marine science, aided by technological advances in sediment coring, geophysical imaging and remotely operated submersibles, has played a major role in the investigation of contemporary and former ice sheets. Notable advances have been achieved with respect to reconstructing the extent and flow dynamics of the large polar ice sheets and their mid-latitude counterparts during the Quaternary from marine geophysical and geological records of landforms and sediments on glacier-influenced continental margins. Investigations of the deep-sea ice-rafted debris record have demonstrated that catastrophic collapse of large (10(5)-10(6) km(2)) ice-sheet drainage basins occurred on millennial and shorter time scales and had a major influence on oceanography. In the last few years, increasing emphasis has been placed on understanding physical processes at the ice-ocean interface, particularly at the grounding line, and on determining how these processes affect ice-sheet stability. This remains a major challenge, however, owing to the logistical constraints imposed by working in ice-infested polar waters and ice-shelf cavities. Furthermore, despite advances in reconstructing the Quaternary history of mid- and high-latitude ice sheets, major unanswered questions remain regarding West Antarctic ice-sheet stability, and the long-term offshore history of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets remains poorly constrained. While these are major research frontiers in glaciology, and ones in which marine science has a pivotal role to play, realizing such future advances will require an integrated collaborative approach between oceanographers, glaciologists, marine geologists and numerical modellers.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Mapping Greenland's mass loss in space and time

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland's mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade.

21st-century evolution of Greenland outlet glacier velocities

Earlier observations on several of Greenland's outlet glaciers, starting near the turn of the 21st century, indicated rapid (annual-scale) and large (>100%) increases in glacier velocity. Combining data from several satellites, we produce a decade-long (2000 to 2010) record documenting the ongoing velocity evolution of nearly all (200+) of Greenland's major outlet glaciers, revealing complex spatial and temporal patterns. Changes on fast-flow marine-terminating glaciers contrast with steady velocities on ice-shelf-terminating glaciers and slow speeds on land-terminating glaciers. Regionally, glaciers in the northwest accelerated steadily, with more variability in the southeast and relatively steady flow elsewhere. Intraregional variability shows a complex response to regional and local forcing. Observed acceleration indicates that sea level rise from Greenland may fall well below proposed upper bounds.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.