Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading community-wide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the aforementioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation-all.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50-keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single-event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

RAM-SCB simulations of electron transport and plasma wave scattering during the October 2012 "double-dip" storm

Mechanisms for electron injection, trapping, and loss in the near-Earth space environment are investigated during the October 2012 "double-dip" storm using our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB). Pitch angle and energy scattering are included for the first time in RAM-SCB using L and magnetic local time (MLT)-dependent event-specific chorus wave models inferred from NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and Van Allen Probes Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science observations. The dynamics of the source (approximately tens of keV) and seed (approximately hundreds of keV) populations of the radiation belts simulated with RAM-SCB is compared with Van Allen Probes Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer observations in the morning sector and with measurements from NOAA 15 satellite in the predawn and afternoon MLT sectors. We find that although the low-energy (E< 100 keV) electron fluxes are in good agreement with observations, increasing significantly by magnetospheric convection during both SYM-H dips while decreasing during the intermediate recovery phase, the injection of high-energy electrons is underestimated by this mechanism throughout the storm. Local acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at E≥50 keV considerably, and RAM-SCB simulations overestimate the observed trapped fluxes by more than an order of magnitude; the precipitating fluxes simulated with RAM-SCB are weaker, and their temporal and spatial evolutions agree well with POES/Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detectors data.