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Zheng B, Ciais P, Chevallier F, Yang H, Canadell JG, Chen Y, van der Velde IR, Aben I, Chuvieco E, Davis SJ, Deeter M, Hong C, Kong Y, Li H, Li H, Lin X, He K, Zhang Q. Record-high CO 2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021. Science 2023. [PMID: 36862792 DOI: 10.1126/science.ade0805] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/04/2023]
Abstract
Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Zheng
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China.,State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.,The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia 2121, Cyprus
| | - Frederic Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Hui Yang
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | | | - Yang Chen
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Ivar R van der Velde
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, Netherlands.,Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ilse Aben
- SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, Netherlands.,Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Emilio Chuvieco
- Universidad de Alcalá, Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group, Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Steven J Davis
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.,Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Merritt Deeter
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
| | - Chaopeng Hong
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China.,State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Yawen Kong
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Haiyan Li
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Hui Li
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Xin Lin
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Kebin He
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.,State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Qu Z, Henze DK, Worden HM, Jiang Z, Gaubert B, Theys N, Wang W. Sector-Based Top-Down Estimates of NO x , SO 2, and CO Emissions in East Asia. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022; 49:e2021GL096009. [PMID: 35865332 PMCID: PMC9286828 DOI: 10.1029/2021gl096009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Revised: 12/02/2021] [Accepted: 12/23/2021] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Top-down estimates using satellite data provide important information on the sources of air pollutants. We develop a sector-based 4D-Var framework based on the GEOS-Chem adjoint model to address the impacts of co-emissions and chemical interactions on top-down emission estimates. We apply OMI NO2, OMI SO2, and MOPITT CO observations to estimate NO x , SO2, and CO emissions in East Asia during 2005-2012. Posterior evaluations with surface measurements show reduced normalized mean bias (NMB) by 7% (NO2)-15% (SO2) and normalized mean square error (NMSE) by 8% (SO2)-9% (NO2) compared to a species-based inversion. This new inversion captures the peak years of Chinese SO2 (2007) and NO x (2011) emissions and attributes their drivers to industry and energy activities. The CO peak in 2007 in China is driven by residential and industry emissions. In India, the inversion attributes NO x and SO2 trends mostly to energy and CO trend to residential emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhen Qu
- Department of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- School of Engineering and Applied ScienceHarvard UniversityCambridgeMAUSA
| | - Daven K. Henze
- Department of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Helen M. Worden
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and ModelingNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - Zhe Jiang
- School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefeiChina
| | - Benjamin Gaubert
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and ModelingNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - Nicolas Theys
- Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA‐IASB)BrusselsBelgium
| | - Wei Wang
- China National Environmental Monitoring CenterBeijingChina
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3
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Gaubert B, Emmons LK, Raeder K, Tilmes S, Miyazaki K, Arellano AF, Elguindi N, Granier C, Tang W, Barré J, Worden HM, Buchholz RR, Edwards DP, Franke P, Anderson JL, Saunois M, Schroeder J, Woo JH, Simpson IJ, Blake DR, Meinardi S, Wennberg PO, Crounse J, Teng A, Kim M, Dickerson RR, He H, Ren X, Pusede SE, Diskin GS. Correcting model biases of CO in East Asia: impact on oxidant distributions during KORUS-AQ. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2020; 20:14617-14647. [PMID: 33414818 PMCID: PMC7786812 DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-14617-2020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Global coupled chemistry-climate models underestimate carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere, exhibiting a pervasive negative bias against measurements peaking in late winter and early spring. While this bias has been commonly attributed to underestimation of direct anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, chemical production and loss via OH reaction from emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play an important role. Here we investigate the reasons for this underestimation using aircraft measurements taken in May and June 2016 from the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) experiment in South Korea and the Air Chemistry Research in Asia (ARIAs) in the North China Plain (NCP). For reference, multispectral CO retrievals (V8J) from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) are jointly assimilated with meteorological observations using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) within the global Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). With regard to KORUS-AQ data, CO is underestimated by 42% in the control run and by 12% with the MOPITT assimilation run. The inversion suggests an underestimation of anthropogenic CO sources in many regions, by up to 80% for northern China, with large increments over the Liaoning Province and the North China Plain (NCP). Yet, an often-overlooked aspect of these inversions is that correcting the underestimation in anthropogenic CO emissions also improves the comparison with observational O3 datasets and observationally constrained box model simulations of OH and HO2. Running a CAM-Chem simulation with the updated emissions of anthropogenic CO reduces the bias by 29% for CO, 18% for ozone, 11% for HO2, and 27% for OH. Longer-lived anthropogenic VOCs whose model errors are correlated with CO are also improved, while short-lived VOCs, including formaldehyde, are difficult to constrain solely by assimilating satellite retrievals of CO. During an anticyclonic episode, better simulation of O3, with an average underestimation of 5.5 ppbv, and a reduction in the bias of surface formaldehyde and oxygenated VOCs can be achieved by separately increasing by a factor of 2 the modeled biogenic emissions for the plant functional types found in Korea. Results also suggest that controlling VOC and CO emissions, in addition to widespread NO x controls, can improve ozone pollution over East Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Gaubert
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Louisa K. Emmons
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Kevin Raeder
- Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Simone Tilmes
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Kazuyuki Miyazaki
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Avelino F. Arellano
- Dept. of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Nellie Elguindi
- Laboratoire d’Aérologie, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Claire Granier
- Laboratoire d’Aérologie, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory-CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Wenfu Tang
- Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Jérôme Barré
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
| | - Helen M. Worden
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Rebecca R. Buchholz
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David P. Edwards
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Philipp Franke
- Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institut für Energie und Klimaforschung IEK-8, 52425 Jülich, Germany
| | - Jeffrey L. Anderson
- Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Marielle Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Jung-Hun Woo
- Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Isobel J. Simpson
- Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Donald R. Blake
- Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Simone Meinardi
- Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | | | - John Crounse
- California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Alex Teng
- California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Michelle Kim
- California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Russell R. Dickerson
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Hao He
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Xinrong Ren
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Sally E. Pusede
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
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Barré J, Edwards D, Worden H, Arellano A, Gaubert B, Da Silva A, Lahoz W, Anderson J. On the feasibility of monitoring carbon monoxide in the lower troposphere from a constellation of Northern Hemisphere geostationary satellites: global scale assimilation experiments (Part II). ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT (OXFORD, ENGLAND : 1994) 2016; Volume 140:188-201. [PMID: 32021559 PMCID: PMC6999668 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.06.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
This paper describes the second phase of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) that utilizes the synthetic measurements from a constellation of satellites measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary (GEO) Earth orbit presented in part I of the study. Our OSSE is focused on carbon monoxide observations over North America, East Asia and Europe where most of the anthropogenic sources are located. Here we assess the impact of a potential GEO constellation on constraining northern hemisphere (NH) carbon monoxide (CO) using data assimilation. We show how cloud cover affects the GEO constellation data density with the largest cloud cover (i.e., lowest data density) occurring during Asian summer. We compare the modeled state of the atmosphere (Control Run), before CO data assimilation, with the known "true" state of the atmosphere (Nature Run) and show that our setup provides realistic atmospheric CO fields and emission budgets. Overall, the Control Run underestimates CO concentrations in the northern hemisphere, especially in areas close to CO sources. Assimilation experiments show that constraining CO close to the main anthropogenic sources significantly reduces errors in NH CO compared to the Control Run. We assess the changes in error reduction when only single satellite instruments are available as compared to the full constellation. We find large differences in how measurements for each continental scale observation system affect the hemispherical improvement in long-range transport patterns, especially due to seasonal cloud cover. A GEO constellation will provide the most efficient constraint on NH CO during winter when CO lifetime is longer and increments from data assimilation associated with source regions are advected further around the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jérôme Barré
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Edwards
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Helen Worden
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Benjamin Gaubert
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | | | - Jeffrey Anderson
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
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5
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Yumimoto K, Uno I, Itahashi S. Long-term inverse modeling of Chinese CO emission from satellite observations. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2014; 195:308-18. [PMID: 25113428 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2014.07.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2014] [Revised: 05/26/2014] [Accepted: 07/19/2014] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions in China in 2005-2010 were estimated by inversion, using the Green's function method from vertical CO profiles derived from MOPITT Version 5 satellite data and a tagged CO simulation, and validated with independent in situ observations from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. Modeling with a posteriori emission successfully reproduced CO outflow from the continent to the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, and Japanese islands during winter and spring, and compensated for underestimates in central and eastern China in summer. A posteriori emissions showed large seasonal variations in which December and March emissions were on average 23% larger than August emissions, consistent with other studies. Estimated Chinese CO emissions were 184.4, 173.1, 184.6, 158.4, 157.4, and 157.3 Tg/year for 2005-2010, respectively. The decrease after 2007 is partly attributed to Chinese socioeconomic conditions and improved combustion efficiency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keiya Yumimoto
- Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Nagamine 1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0032, Japan.
| | - Itsushi Uno
- Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga Park 6-1, Kasuga, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan
| | - Syuichi Itahashi
- Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko 1642, Abiko, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
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Satellite-Detected Carbon Monoxide Pollution during 2000–2012: Examining Global Trends and also Regional Anthropogenic Periods over China, the EU and the USA. CLIMATE 2014. [DOI: 10.3390/cli2010001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Hooghiemstra PB, Krol MC, van Leeuwen TT, van der Werf GR, Novelli PC, Deeter MN, Aben I, Röckmann T. Interannual variability of carbon monoxide emission estimates over South America from 2006 to 2010. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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8
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Hooghiemstra PB, Krol MC, Bergamaschi P, de Laat ATJ, van der Werf GR, Novelli PC, Deeter MN, Aben I, Röckmann T. Comparing optimized CO emission estimates using MOPITT or NOAA surface network observations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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9
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Deeter MN, Worden HM, Gille JC, Edwards DP, Mao D, Drummond JR. MOPITT multispectral CO retrievals: Origins and effects of geophysical radiance errors. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd015703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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