Improving weather forecasting by assimilation of water vapor isotopes

Stable water isotopes, which depend on meteorology and terrain, are important indicators of global water circulation. During the past 10 years, major advances have been made in general circulation models that include water isotopes, and the understanding of water isotopes has greatly progressed as a result of innovative, improved observation techniques. However, no previous studies have combined modeled and observed isotopes using data assimilation, nor have they investigated the impacts of real observations of isotopes. This is the first study to assimilate real satellite observations of isotopes using a general circulation model, then investigate the impacts on global dynamics and local phenomena. The results showed that assimilating isotope data improved not only the water isotope field but also meteorological variables such as air temperature and wind speed. Furthermore, the forecast skills of these variables were improved by a few percent, compared with a model that did not assimilate isotope observations.

Isotopic composition in precipitation and groundwater in the northern mountainous region of the Central Valley of Costa Rica

The linkage between precipitation and recharge is still poorly understood in the Central America region. This study focuses on stable isotopic composition in precipitation and groundwater in the northern mountainous region of the Central Valley of Costa Rica. During the dry season, rainfall samples corresponded to enriched events with high deuterium excess. By mid-May, the Intertropical Convergence Zone poses over Costa Rica resulting in a depletion of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ²H/H ratios. A parsimonious four-variable regression model (r²= 0.52) was able to predict daily δ¹⁸O in precipitation. Air mass back trajectories indicated a combination of Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean sources, which is clearly depicted in groundwater isoscape. Aquifers relying on Pacific-originated recharge exhibited a more depleted pattern, whereas recharge areas relying on Caribbean parental moisture showed an enrichment trend. These results can be used to enhance modelling efforts in Central America where scarcity of long-term data limits water resources management plans.