Improved hourly estimate of aerosol optical thickness over Asian land by fusing geostationary satellites Fengyun-4B and Himawari-9

Asian over-land aerosols are complexities due to a mixture of anthropogenic air pollutants and natural dust. The accuracy of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieved from the satellite is crucial to their application in the aerosol data assimilation system. Fusion of AOTs with high spatiotemporal resolution from next-generation geostationary satellites such as Fengyun-4B (FY-4B) and Himawari-9, provides a new high-quality dataset capturing the aerosol spatiotemporal variability for data assimilation. This study develops a complete fusion algorithm to estimate the optimal AOT over-land in Asia from September 2022 to August 2023 at 10 km × 10 km resolution with high efficiency. The data fusion involves four steps: (1) investigating the spatiotemporal variability of FY-4B AOT within the past 1 h and 12 km radius calculation domain; (2) utilizing the aerosol spatiotemporal variability characteristics to estimate FY-4B pure and hourly merged AOTs; (3) performing bias corrections for FY-4B and Himwari-9 hourly merged AOT for different observation times and seasons considering pixel-level errors for each satellite; (4) fusing the bias-corrected FY-4B and Himawari-9 hourly merged AOT based on maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Compared to the original FY-4B AOT, validation with AERONET observation confirms that the root mean square error (RMSE) of hourly merged FY-4B AOT decreases by around 40.6 % and the correlation coefficient (CORR) increases by about 27.8 %. Compared to FY-4B and Himawari-9 merged AOT, the fused AOT significantly decreases (increases) RMSE (CORR) by around 24.7 % (7.3 %) and 20.2 % (5.6 %). In addition, fused AOT is double the number of single-sensor merged AOT. Fusion aerosol map accurately describes the spatial and temporal variations in Asian regions controlled by air pollution and dust storms. Further studies are required for other landscapes with different satellite combinations to promote the application in the data assimilation system.

Performance comparisons of the three data assimilation methods for improved predictability of PM2·5: Ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter, and three-dimensional variational methods

To improve the predictability of concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter, a data assimilation (DA) system using ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) has been developed for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The EnSRF DA method is a deterministic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method, which means that unlike the EnKF method, it does not add random noise to the observations. To compare the performances of the EnSRF with those of other DA methods, such as EnKF and 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational), these three methods were applied to the same CMAQ model simulations with identical experimental settings. This is the first attempt in the field of chemical DA to compare the EnKF and EnSRF methods. An identical set of surface fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) were assimilated every 6 h by all the DA methods over a CMAQ domain of East Asia, during the period from 01 May to 11 June 2016. In parallel with 'reanalysis experiments', we also carried out '48 h prediction experiments' using the optimized initial conditions produced by the three DA methods. Detailed analyses among the three DA methods were then carried out by comparing both the reanalysis and the prediction outputs with the observed surface PM_2.5 over four regions (i.e., South Korea, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, Shandong province, and Liaoning province). The comparison results revealed that the EnSRF produced the best reanalysis and prediction fields in terms of several statistical metrics. For example, when the 3DVAR, EnKF, and EnSRF methods were used, averaged normalized mean biases (NMBs) decreased by (57.6, 85.6, and 91.8) % in reanalyses and (39.7, 87.6, and 91.5) % in first-day predictions, compared to the CMAQ control experiment (i.e., without DA) over South Korea, respectively. Also, over the three Chinese regions, the EnSRF method outperformed the EnKF and 3DVAR methods.

Infusing satellite data into aerosol forecast for near real-time episode detection and diagnosis in East Asia

A near-real-time (NRT) aerosol forecast and diagnostic approach is developed based on the system of Infusing satellite Data into Environmental Applications for East Asia, herein denoted as IDEA-EA. The design incorporates a 0.5-degree Global Forecast System (GFS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aerosol and cloud retrievals for meteorological and remote sensing inputs. The primary output of IDEA-EA includes aerosol forward and backward air mass trajectory forecasts, migration visualization, and data synthesis purposed for NRT aerosol detection, monitoring, and source tracing in East Asia. Two aerosol episodes of Southeast Asia (SEA) biomass burning and Chinese haze infusion with Gobi dust are illustrated by IDEA-EA to demonstrate its forecast and source tracing capabilities. In the case of SEA biomass burning (late March 2021), forward trajectories of IDEA-EA forecasted air masses with high aerosol optical depth (AOD) from SEA affecting Taiwan. The IDEA-EA forecasts were verified by increased AOD and surface PM_2.5 observations at a mountain site. In the case of the Chinese haze (October 30, 2019), backward trajectories from the northern tip of Taiwan traced air masses back to the east coast of mainland China and possibly further to the Gobi Desert. Compared with conventional numerical model simulations, the combination of the state-of-the-art aerosol remote sensing and trajectory modeling in IDEA-EA provides a cost-effective alternative for air quality management.

Vertical aerosol data assimilation technology and application based on satellite and ground lidar: A review and outlook

Observations and numerical models are mainly used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and vertical structure characteristics of aerosols to understand aerosol pollution and its effects. However, the limitations of observations and the uncertainties of numerical models bias aerosol calculations and predictions. Data assimilation combines observations and numerical models to improve the accuracy of the initial, analytical fields of models and promote the development of atmospheric aerosol pollution research. Numerous studies have been conducted to integrate multi-source data, such as aerosol optical depth and aerosol extinction coefficient profile, into various chemical transport models using various data assimilation algorithms and have achieved good assimilation results. The definition of data assimilation and the main algorithms will be briefly presented, and the progress of aerosol assimilation according to two types of aerosol data, namely, aerosol optical depth and extinction coefficient, will be presented. The application of vertical aerosol data assimilation, as well as the future trends and challenges of aerosol data assimilation, will be further analysed.

Long-term climatology and spatial trends of absorption, scattering, and total aerosol optical depths over East Africa during 2001-2019

The unprecedented increase in anthropogenic activities, coupled with the prevailing climatic conditions, has increased the aerosol load over East Africa (EA). Given this, the present study examined the trends in total, absorption, scattering, and total aerosol extinction optical depth (TAOD, AAOD, SAOD, and TAEOD) over EA, alongside trends in single scattering albedo (SSA). For this purpose, the AOD of different optical properties retrieved from multiple sensors and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) model between January 2001 to December 2019 were utilized to estimate trends and assess their statistical significance. The spatial patterns of seasonal mean AOD from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and MERRA-2 model were generally characterized with high (>0.35) and low (<0.2) AOD centers over EA observed during the local dry and wet seasons, respectively. Also, the spatial trend analysis revealed a general increase in TAOD, being positive and significant over the arid and semi-arid zones of the northeastern part of EA, which is majorly dominated by locally derived dust. The local dry (wet) months generally experienced positive (negative) trends in TAOD, associated with seasonal cycles of rainfall. High and significant positive trends in AAOD were dominated over the study domain, attributed to an increased amount of biomass burning, variations in soil moisture, and changes in the rainfall pattern. The trends in TAEOD showed a distinct pattern, except over some months that depicted significant increasing trends attributed to changes in climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. At last, the study domain exhibited decreasing trends in SSA, signifying strong absorption of direct solar radiation resulting in a warming effect. The study revealed patterns of trends in aerosol optical properties and forms the basis for further research in aerosols over EA.

Seasonal Dependence of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasting Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

This study examines the performance of a data assimilation and forecasting system that simultaneously assimilates satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground-based PM10 and PM2.5 observations into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The data assimilation case for the surface PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations exhibits a higher consistency with the observed data by showing more correlation coefficients than the no-assimilation case. The data assimilation also shows beneficial impacts on the PM10 and PM2.5 forecasts for South Korea for up to 24 h from the updated initial condition. This study also finds deficiencies in data assimilation and forecasts, as the model shows a pronounced seasonal dependence of forecasting accuracy, on which the seasonal changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns have a significant impact. In spring, the forecast accuracy decreases due to large uncertainties in natural dust transport from the continent by north-westerlies, while the model performs reasonably well in terms of anthropogenic emission and transport in winter. When the south-westerlies prevail in summer, the forecast accuracy increases with the overall reduction in ambient concentration. The forecasts also show significant accuracy degradation as the lead time increases because of systematic model biases. A simple statistical correction that adjusts the mean and variance of the forecast outputs to resemble those in the observed distribution can maintain the forecast skill at a practically useful level for lead times of more than a day. For a categorical forecast, the skill score of the data assimilation run increased by up to 37% compared to that of the case with no assimilation, and the skill score was further improved by 10% through bias correction.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework for Air Quality Forecasts in Northeast Asia: A Case Study Utilizing Virtual Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer and Surface Monitored Aerosol Data

Prior knowledge of the effectiveness of new observation instruments or new data streams for air quality can contribute significantly to shaping the policy and budget planning related to those instruments and data. In view of this, one of the main purposes of the development and application of the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) is to assess the potential impact of new observations on the quality of the current monitoring or forecasting systems, thereby making this framework valuable. This study introduces the overall OSSE framework established to support air quality forecasting and the details of its individual components. Furthermore, it shows case study results from Northeast Asia and the potential benefits of the new observation data scenarios on the PM2.5 forecasting skills, including the PM data from 200 virtual monitoring sites in the Gobi Desert and North Korean non-forest areas (NEWPM) and the aerosol optical depths (AOD) data from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS AOD). Performance statistics suggest that the concurrent assimilation of the NEWPM and the PM data from current monitoring sites in China and South Korea can improve the PM2.5 concentration forecasts in South Korea by 66.4% on average for October 2017 and 95.1% on average for February 2018. Assimilating the GEMS AOD improved the performance of the PM2.5 forecasts in South Korea for October 2017 by approximately 68.4% (~78.9% for February 2018). This OSSE framework is expected to be continuously implemented to verify its utilization potential for various air quality observation systems and data scenarios. Hopefully, this kind of application result will aid environmental researchers and decision-makers in performing additional in-depth studies for the improvement of PM air quality forecasts.

On Some Features of the Numerical Solving of Coefficient Inverse Problems for an Equation of the Reaction-Diffusion-Advection-Type with Data on the Position of a Reaction Front

The work continues a series of articles devoted to the peculiarities of solving coefficient inverse problems for nonlinear singularly perturbed equations of the reaction-diffusion-advection-type with data on the position of the reaction front. In this paper, we place the emphasis on some problems of the numerical solving process. One of the approaches to solving inverse problems of the class under consideration is the use of methods of asymptotic analysis. These methods, under certain conditions, make it possible to construct the so-called reduced formulation of the inverse problem. Usually, a differential equation in this formulation has a lower dimension/order with respect to the differential equation, which is included in the full statement of the inverse problem. In this paper, we consider an example that leads to a reduced formulation of the problem, the solving of which is no less a time-consuming procedure in comparison with the numerical solving of the problem in the full statement. In particular, to obtain an approximate numerical solution, one has to use the methods of the numerical diagnostics of the solution’s blow-up. Thus, it is demonstrated that the possibility of constructing a reduced formulation of the inverse problem does not guarantee its more efficient solving. Moreover, the possibility of constructing a reduced formulation of the problem does not guarantee the existence of an approximate solution that is qualitatively comparable to the true one. In previous works of the authors, it was shown that an acceptable approximate solution can be obtained only for sufficiently small values of the singular parameter included in the full statement of the problem. However, the question of how to proceed if the singular parameter is not small enough remains open. The work also gives an answer to this question.

Enhanced Simulation of an Asian Dust Storm by Assimilating GCOM-C Observations

Dust aerosols have great effects on global and regional climate systems. The Global Change Observation Mission-Climate (GCOM-C), also known as SHIKISAI, which was launched on 23 December 2017 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), is a next-generation Earth observation satellite that is used for climate studies. The Second-Generation Global Imager (SGLI) aboard GCOM-C enables the retrieval of more precious global aerosols. Here, the first assimilation study of the aerosol optical thicknesses (AOTs) at 500 nm observed by this new satellite is performed to investigate a severe dust storm in spring over East Asia during 28–31 March 2018. The aerosol observation assimilation system is an integration of the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) and the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) coupled with the Non-Hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). Through verification with the independent observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Asian Dust and Aerosol Lidar Observation Network (AD-Net), the results demonstrate that the assimilation of the GCOM-C aerosol observations can significantly enhance Asian dust storm simulations. The dust characteristics over the regions without GCOM-C observations are better revealed from assimilating the adjacent observations within the localization length, suggesting the importance of the technical advances in observation and assimilation, which are helpful in clarifying the temporal–spatial structure of Asian dust and which could also improve the forecasting of dust storms, climate prediction models, and aerosol reanalysis.

Development and application of a hybrid long-short term memory - three dimensional variational technique for the improvement of PM2.5 forecasting

The current state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) numerical model for air quality forecasting is restricted by the uncertainty from the emission inventory, physical/chemical parameterization, and meteorological prediction. Forecasting performance can be improved by using the 3D-variational (3D-VAR) technique for assimilating the observation data, which corrects the initial concentration field. However, errors from the prognostic model cause the correction effects at the first hour to be erased, and the bias of the forecast increases relatively fast as the simulation progresses. As an emerging alternative technique, long short-term memory (LSTM) shows promising performance in air quality forecasting for individual stations and outperforms the traditional persistent statistical models. In this study, a new method was developed to combine a 3D numerical model with 3D-VAR and LSTM techniques. This method integrates the advantage of LSTM, namely its high-accuracy forecasting for a single station and that of the 3D-VAR technique, namely its ability to extend improvement to the whole simulation domain. This hybrid method can effectively improve PM_2.5 forecasting for the next 24 h, relative to forecasting with the 3D-VAR technique which uses the initial hour concentration correction. Results showed that the root-mean-square error and normalized mean error were decreased by 29.3% and 33.3% in the validation stations, respectively. The LSTM-3D-VAR method developed in this study can be further applied in other regions to improve the forecasting of PM_2.5 and other ambient pollutants.

The Problem of the Non-Uniqueness of the Solution to the Inverse Problem of Recovering the Symmetric States of a Bistable Medium with Data on the Position of an Autowave Front

The paper considers the question of the possibility of recovering symmetric stable states of a bistable medium in the inverse problem for a nonlinear singularly perturbed autowave equation by data given on the position of an autowave front propagating through it. It is shown that under certain conditions, this statement of the problem is ill-posed in the sense of the non-uniqueness of the solution. A regularizing approach to its solution was proposed.

Data Assimilation of AOD and Estimation of Surface Particulate Matters over the Arctic

In this study, more accurate information on the levels of aerosol optical depth (AOD) was calculated from the assimilation of the modeled AOD based on the optimal interpolation method. Additionally, more realistic levels of surface particulate matters over the Arctic were estimated using the assimilated AOD based on the linear relationship between the particulate matters and AODs. In comparison to the MODIS observation, the assimilated AOD was much improved compared with the modeled AOD (e.g., increase in correlation coefficients from −0.15–0.26 to 0.17–0.76 over the Arctic). The newly inferred monthly averages of PM10 and PM2.5 for April–September 2008 were 2.18–3.70 μg m−3 and 0.85–1.68 μg m−3 over the Arctic, respectively. These corresponded to an increase of 140–180%, compared with the modeled PMs. In comparison to in-situ observation, the inferred PMs showed better performances than those from the simulations, particularly at Hyytiala station. Therefore, combining the model simulation and data assimilation provided more accurate concentrations of AOD, PM10, and PM2.5 than those only calculated from the model simulations.

Inverse Problem of Recovering the Initial Condition for a Nonlinear Equation of the Reaction–Diffusion–Advection Type by Data Given on the Position of a Reaction Front with a Time Delay

In this paper, approaches to the numerical recovering of the initial condition in the inverse problem for a nonlinear singularly perturbed reaction–diffusion–advection equation are considered. The feature of the formulation of the inverse problem is the use of additional information about the value of the solution of the equation at the known position of a reaction front, measured experimentally with a delay relative to the initial moment of time. In this case, for the numerical solution of the inverse problem, the gradient method of minimizing the cost functional is applied. In the case when only the position of the reaction front is known, the method of deep machine learning is applied. Numerical experiments demonstrated the possibility of solving such kinds of considered inverse problems.

The Dark Target Algorithm for Observing the Global Aerosol System: Past, Present, and Future

The Dark Target aerosol algorithm was developed to exploit the information content available from the observations of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), to better characterize the global aerosol system. The algorithm is based on measurements of the light scattered by aerosols toward a space-borne sensor against the backdrop of relatively dark Earth scenes, thus giving rise to the name “Dark Target”. Development required nearly a decade of research that included application of MODIS airborne simulators to provide test beds for proto-algorithms and analysis of existing data to form realistic assumptions to constrain surface reflectance and aerosol optical properties. This research in itself played a significant role in expanding our understanding of aerosol properties, even before Terra MODIS launch. Contributing to that understanding were the observations and retrievals of the growing Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) of sun-sky radiometers, which has walked hand-in-hand with MODIS and the development of other aerosol algorithms, providing validation of the satellite-retrieved products after launch. The MODIS Dark Target products prompted advances in Earth science and applications across subdisciplines such as climate, transport of aerosols, air quality, and data assimilation systems. Then, as the Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors aged, the challenge was to monitor the effects of calibration drifts on the aerosol products and to differentiate physical trends in the aerosol system from artefacts introduced by instrument characterization. Our intention is to continue to adapt and apply the well-vetted Dark Target algorithms to new instruments, including both polar-orbiting and geosynchronous sensors. The goal is to produce an uninterrupted time series of an aerosol climate data record that begins at the dawn of the 21st century and continues indefinitely into the future.

Improved PM2.5 predictions of WRF-Chem via the integration of Himawari-8 satellite data and ground observations

The new-generation geostationary satellites feature higher radiometric, spectral, and spatial resolutions, thereby making richer data available for the improvement of PM_2.5 predictions. Various aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation methods have been developed, but the accurate representation of the AOD-PM_2.5 relationship remains challenging. Empirical statistical methods are effective in retrieving ground-level PM_2.5, but few have been evaluated in terms of whether and to what extent they can help improve PM_2.5 predictions. Therefore, an empirical and statistics-based scheme was developed for optimizing the estimation of the initial conditions (ICs) of aerosol in WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry) and for improving the PM_2.5 predictions by integrating Himawari-8 data and ground observations. The proposed method was evaluated via two one-year experiments that were conducted in parallel over eastern China. The contribution of the satellite data to the model performance was evaluated via a 2-week control experiment. The results demonstrate that the proposed method improved the PM_2.5 predictions throughout the year and mitigated the underestimation during pollution episodes. Spatially, the performance was highly correlated with the amount of valid data.

Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a modal aerosol model: Implementation and application in AOD forecasts over East Asia

A new aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation (DA) module was developed in Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system, named FastJ/CRTM-AOD DA module. And applied to the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe with the Secondary Organic Aerosol Model (MADE/SORGAM) in the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry model (WRF/Chem). The Fast-J optical module in WRF/Chem was used as the observation operator of AOD. The corresponding Jacobian code was modified from the one of CRTM-AOD in GSI. This way obviated the need for the Jacobian code's generation, which was complex and difficult for the highly nonlinear observation operator. During the studying period (January and April of 2014), compared to the ground AOD observations, AOD DA reduced about 20% fractional error (FE) with MADE/SORGAM. The original DA framework, which applied to the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) mechanism, performed slightly better than the new assimilation scheme for the low-value AOD situations (value < 0.4). However, compared to the original DA framework, the new DA scheme show a notable improvement for the high-value (0.4 < value ≤ 1.2) and extreme-high-value (value > 1.2) AOD situations. FE can be reduced by 48% and 64%, respectively. It indicates that the AOD DA impacts on AOD forecasts vary significant between different aerosol mechanisms. Moreover, FastJ/CRTM-AOD DA module can be easily and efficiently applied to the other aerosol schemes and the other optical modules, which is important to the development on AOD assimilation.

Evaluating the Impact of Assimilating Aerosol Optical Depth Observations on Dust Forecasts Over North Africa and the East Atlantic Using Different Data Assimilation Methods

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data using different data assimilation (DA) methods on dust analyses and forecasts over North Africa and tropical North Atlantic. To do so, seven experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting dust model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system. Six of these experiments differ in whether or not AOD observations are assimilated and the DA method used, the latter of which includes the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var), ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and hybrid methods. The seventh experiment, which allows us to assess the impact of assimilating deep blue AOD data, assimilates only dark target AOD data using the hybrid method. The assimilation of MODIS AOD data clearly improves AOD analyses and forecasts up to 48 hr in length. Results also show that assimilating deep blue data has a primarily positive effect on AOD analyses and forecasts over and downstream of the major North African source regions. Without assimilating deep blue data (assimilating dark target only), AOD assimilation only improves AOD forecasts for up to 30 hr. Of the three DA methods examined, the hybrid and EnSRF methods produce better AOD analyses and forecasts than the 3D-Var method does. Despite the clear benefit of AOD assimilation for AOD analyses and forecasts, the lack of information regarding the vertical distribution of aerosols in AOD data means that AOD assimilation has very little positive effect on analyzed or forecasted vertical profiles of backscatter.

Lidar data assimilation method based on CRTM and WRF-Chem models and its application in PM2.5 forecasts in Beijing

A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) lidar data assimilation method is developed based on the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. A 3DVAR data assimilation (DA) system using lidar extinction coefficient observation data is established, and variables from the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) mechanism of the WRF-Chem model are employed. Hourly lidar extinction coefficient data from 12:00 to 18:00 UTC on March 13, 2018 at four stations in Beijing are assimilated into the initial field of the WRF-Chem model; subsequently, a 24 h PM_2.5 concentration forecast is made. Results indicate that assimilating lidar data can effectively improve the subsequent forecast. PM_2.5 forecasts without using lidar DA are remarkably underestimated, particularly during heavy haze periods; in contrast, forecasts of PM_2.5 concentrations with lidar DA are closer to observations, the model low bias is evidently reduced, and the vertical distribution of the PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing is distinctly improved from the surface to 1200 m. Of the five aerosol species, improvements of NO₃^- are the most significant. The correlation coefficient between PM_2.5 concentration forecasts with lidar DA and observations at 12 stations in Beijing is increased by 0.45, and the corresponding average RMSE is decreased by 25 μg·m^-3, which respectively compared to those without DA.

Himawari-8/AHI and MODIS Aerosol Optical Depths in China: Evaluation and Comparison

The geostationary earth orbit satellite—Himawari-8 loaded with the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) has greatly enhanced our capacity of dynamic monitoring in Asia–Pacific area. The Himawari-8/AHI hourly aerosol product is a promising complementary source to the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily aerosol product for near real-time air pollution observations. However, a comprehensive evaluation of AHI aerosol optical depth (AOD) is still limited, and the difference in performances of AHI and MODIS remains uncertain. In this study, we evaluated the Himawari-8/AHI Level 3 Version 3.0 and MODIS Collection 6.1 Deep Blue AOD products over China against AOD measurements from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites in a spatiotemporal comparison of the products from February 2018 to January 2019. Results showed that AHI AOD achieved a moderate agreement with AERONET with a correlation coefficient of 0.75 and a root-mean-square-error of 0.26, which was slightly inferior to MODIS. The retrieval accuracy was spatially and temporally varied in AHI AOD, with higher accuracies for XiangHe and Lulin sites as well as in the morning and during the summer. The dependency analysis further revealed that the bias in AHI AOD was strongly dependent on aerosol loading and influenced by the Ångström Exponent and NDVI while those for MODIS appeared to be independent of all variables. Fortunately, the biases in AHI AOD could be rectified using a random forest model that contained the appropriate variables to produce sufficiently accurate results with cross-validation R of 0.92 and RMSE of 0.15. With these adjustments, AHI AOD will continue to have great potential in characterizing precise dynamic aerosol variations and air quality at a fine temporal resolution.

Retrieval of the Fine-Mode Aerosol Optical Depth over East China Using a Grouped Residual Error Sorting (GRES) Method from Multi-Angle and Polarized Satellite Data

The fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AODf) is an important parameter for the environment and climate change study, which mainly represents the anthropogenic aerosols component. The Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Science coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL) instrument can detect polarized signal from multi-angle observation and the polarized signal mainly comes from the radiation contribution of the fine-mode aerosols, which provides an opportunity to obtain AODf directly. However, the currently operational algorithm of Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique (LOA) has a poor AODf retrieval accuracy over East China on high aerosol loading days. This study focused on solving this issue and proposed a grouped residual error sorting (GRES) method to determine the optimal aerosol model in AODf retrieval using the traditional look-up table (LUT) approach and then the AODf retrieval accuracy over East China was improved. The comparisons between the GRES retrieved and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground-based AODf at Beijing, Xianghe, Taihu and Hong_Kong_PolyU sites produced high correlation coefficients (r) of 0.900, 0.933, 0.957 and 0.968, respectively. The comparisons of the GRES retrieved AODf and PARASOL AODf product with those of the AERONET observations produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.054 versus 0.104 on high aerosol loading days (AERONET mean AODf at 865 nm = 0.283). An application using the GRES method for total AOD (AODt) retrieval also showed a good expandability for multi-angle aerosol retrieval of this method.

Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications (AURORA): A Project Overview

With the launch of the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P, lifted-off on 13 October 2017), Sentinel-4 (S-4) and Sentinel-5 (S-5)(from 2021 and 2023 onwards, respectively) operational missions of the ESA/EU Copernicus program, a massive amount of atmospheric composition data with unprecedented quality will become available from geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) observations. Enhanced observational capabilities are expected to foster deeper insight than ever before on key issues relevant for air quality, stratospheric ozone, solar radiation, and climate. A major potential strength of the Sentinel observations lies in the exploitation of complementary information that originates from simultaneous and independent satellite measurements of the same air mass. The core purpose of the AURORA (Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications) project is to investigate this exploitation from a novel approach for merging data acquired in different spectral regions from on board the GEO and LEO platforms. A data processing chain is implemented and tested on synthetic observations. A new data algorithm combines the ultraviolet, visible and thermal infrared ozone products into S-4 and S-5(P) fused profiles. These fused products are then ingested into state-of-the-art data assimilation systems to obtain a unique ozone profile in analyses and forecasts mode. A comparative evaluation and validation of fused products assimilation versus the assimilation of the operational products will seek to demonstrate the improvements achieved by the proposed approach. This contribution provides a first general overview of the project, and discusses both the challenges of developing a technological infrastructure for implementing the AURORA concept, and the potential for applications of AURORA derived products, such as tropospheric ozone and UV surface radiation, in sectors such as air quality monitoring and health.

Estimates of Health Impacts and Radiative Forcing in Winter Haze in Eastern China through Constraints of Surface PM2.5 Predictions

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM_2.5 concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM_2.5 concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.67 to 0.94. At nonassimilated sites, improvements (higher correlation coefficients and lower mean bias errors (MBE) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE)) are also found in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and AOD predictions. Using the constrained aerosol fields, we estimate that the PM_2.5 concentrations in January 2013 might have caused 7550 premature deaths in Jing-Jin-Ji areas, which are 2% higher than the estimates using unconstrained aerosol fields. We also estimate that the daytime monthly mean anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) to be -29.9W/m² at the surface, 27.0W/m² inside the atmosphere, and -2.9W/m² at the top of the atmosphere. Our estimates update the previously reported overestimations along Yangtze River region and underestimations in North China. This GSI-WRF-Chem system would also be potentially useful for air quality forecasting in China.

Identifying errors in dust models from data assimilation

Airborne mineral dust is an important component of the Earth system and is increasingly predicted prognostically in weather and climate models. The recent development of data assimilation for remotely sensed aerosol optical depths (AODs) into models offers a new opportunity to better understand the characteristics and sources of model error. Here we examine assimilation increments from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AODs over northern Africa in the Met Office global forecast model. The model underpredicts (overpredicts) dust in light (strong) winds, consistent with (submesoscale) mesoscale processes lifting dust in reality but being missed by the model. Dust is overpredicted in the Sahara and underpredicted in the Sahel. Using observations of lighting and rain, we show that haboobs (cold pool outflows from moist convection) are an important dust source in reality but are badly handled by the model's convection scheme. The approach shows promise to serve as a useful framework for future model development.

Development and implementation of a remote-sensing and in situ data-assimilating version of CMAQ for operational PM2.5 forecasting. Part 1: MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data-assimilation design and testing

This two-part paper reports on the development, implementation, and improvement of a version of the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that assimilates real-time remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) information and ground-based PM2.5 monitor data in routine prognostic application. The model is being used by operational air quality forecasters to help guide their daily issuance of state or local-agency-based air quality alerts (e.g. action days, health advisories). Part 1 describes the development and testing of the initial assimilation capability, which was implemented offline in partnership with NASA and the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) Regional Planning Organization (RPO). In the initial effort, MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are input into a variational data-assimilation scheme using both the traditional Dark Target and relatively new "Deep Blue" retrieval methods. Evaluation of the developmental offline version, reported in Part 1 here, showed sufficient promise to implement the capability within the online, prognostic operational model described in Part 2. In Part 2, the addition of real-time surface PM2.5 monitoring data to improve the assimilation and an initial evaluation of the prognostic modeling system across the continental United States (CONUS) is presented.

IMPLICATIONS

Air quality forecasts are now routinely used to understand when air pollution may reach unhealthy levels. For the first time, an operational air quality forecast model that includes the assimilation of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and ground based PM2.5 observations is being used. The assimilation enables quantifiable improvements in model forecast skill, which improves confidence in the accuracy of the officially-issued forecasts. This helps air quality stakeholders be more effective in taking mitigating actions (reducing power consumption, ride-sharing, etc.) and avoiding exposures that could otherwise result in more serious air quality episodes or more deleterious health effects.