Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~423 to 556 $2010/t-CH4, of which 98 $2010/t-CH4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39-59% of the climate damages and 28-64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

Observational-based assessment of contributions to maximum ozone concentrations in the western United States

Archived Ozone Design Values (ODVs) provide smoothed temporal records of maximum ozone concentrations impacting monitoring sites throughout the US. Utilizing time series of ODVs recorded at sites along the US West Coast, we separately estimate ODV contributions from US background ozone and from production driven by US anthropogenic precursor emissions. Sondes launched from Trinidad Head in northern California measure the vertical distribution of baseline ozone transported ashore from the Pacific; this profile is reflected in the increase of the US background ODV contribution with monitoring site elevation in both rural and urban areas. The ODVs that would result from US background ozone alone are small at coastal, sea level locations (average ~45 ppb), but increase with altitude; above 1 km US background ODVs can exceed 60 ppb. US background ozone contributions now constitute the majority of the maximum ODVs throughout the US west coast region, including the Los Angeles urban area, which records the country's highest ODVs. US anthropogenic emissions presently cause enhancements of 35 to 55 ppb to the maximum ODVs in the Los Angeles area; thus, local emission controls can further reduce ozone even though the background contribution is larger. In other US west coast urban areas ODV enhancements from US anthropogenic emissions are much smaller than the US background ODV contribution. The past decrease in US anthropogenic ODV enhancements from emission controls is larger than generally realized - a factor of more than 6 from 1980 to 2020, while US background ODV contributions varied to only a small extent over those four decades. Wildfire impacts on ODVs are significant in urban areas of the Pacific Northwest, but not over the vast northern US rural region. There is an indication that agricultural emissions of nitrogen oxides in California's Salinas Valley increase downwind maximum ODVs by 5-10 ppb.Implications: In 2020 the ozone design values (ODVs) resulting from transported background ozone alone are now larger than the ODV enhancements from US anthropogenic precursor emissions, even in the Los Angeles urban area, where the nation's highest ODVs are recorded. The US anthropogenic ODV enhancements have been reduced by more than a factor of 6 from 1980 to 2020. The maximum US background ODV contributions have varied somewhat, but in each of the US west coast urban areas it was 60 ppb or larger in 2000. These contributions are so large that reducing maximum urban ODVs to the 70 ppb required by the 2015 ozone NAAQS is very difficult. There remains relatively little room for further reducing ODVs through domestic emission controls alone. From this perspective, degraded US ozone air quality in the western US is primarily due to the US background ozone contribution, with the US anthropogenic enhancement making a significant, but smaller contribution. Notably, the US background ODV has slowly decreased (~1 ppb decade^-1; Parrish, Derwent, and Faloona 2021) since the mid-2000s; cooperative, international emission control efforts aimed at continuing or even accelerating this background ozone decrease may be an effective approach to further ODV reductions, since the US background ODV is largely due to a hemisphere-wide, transported reservoir of ozone with contributions from all northern midlatitude continents. Given the major contribution of background ozone to observed ODVs, future reviews of the ozone NAAQS will be better informed if observational-based estimates of background ODV contributions are considered, in addition to model-derived estimates upon which past reviews have solely relied.

Impact of the COVID‐19 Economic Downturn on Tropospheric Ozone Trends: An Uncertainty Weighted Data Synthesis for Quantifying Regional Anomalies Above Western North America and Europe

This study quantifies the association between the COVID‐19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe and western North America, and their impact on long‐term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. However, detecting ozone anomalies from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (once per week at most sites) is challenging due to ozone's high temporal variability. We first demonstrate the challenges for summarizing regional trends based on independent time series from multiple nearby ozone profiling stations. We then propose a novel regional‐scale anomaly detection framework based on generalized additive mixed models, which accounts for the sampling frequency and inherent data uncertainty associated with each vertical profile data set, measured by ozonesondes, lidar or commercial aircraft. This method produces a long‐term monthly time series with high vertical resolution that reports ozone anomalies from the surface to the middle‐stratosphere under a unified framework, which can be used to quantify the regional‐scale ozone anomalies during the COVID‐19 economic downturn. By incorporating extensive commercial aircraft data and frequently sampled ozonesonde profiles above Europe, we show that the complex interannual variability of ozone can be adequately captured by our modeling approach. The results show that free tropospheric ozone negative anomalies in 2020 are the most profound since the benchmark year of 1994 for both Europe and western North America, and positive trends over 1994–2019 are diminished in both regions by the 2020 anomalies.

2020 is the only year that both Europe and western North America show strong negative tropospheric ozone anomalies since 1994

Positive free tropospheric ozone trends above Europe and western North America since 1994 are diminished by the 2020 anomalies

Data integration of multiple time series provides a better understanding of ozone variability compared to individual records

Estimation of Lower-Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Ozone Profile Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

Climate change and air pollution are emerging topics due to their possible enormous implications for health and social perspectives. In recent years, tropospheric ozone has been recognized as an important greenhouse gas and pollutant that is detrimental to human health, agriculture, and natural ecosystems, and has shown a trend of increasing interest. Machine-learning-based approaches have been widely applied to the estimation of tropospheric ozone concentrations, but few studies have included tropospheric ozone profiles. This study aimed to predict the Northern Hemisphere distribution of Lower-Stratosphere-to-Troposphere (LST) ozone at a pressure of 100 hPa to the near surface by employing a deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. We referred to a history of all the observed parameters (meteorological data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), satellite data, and the ozone profiles of the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center (WOUDC)) between 2014 and 2018 for training the predictive models. Model–measurement comparisons for the monitoring sites of WOUDC for the period 2019–2020 show that the mean correlation coefficients (R2) in the Northern Hemisphere at high latitude (NH), Northern Hemisphere at middle latitude (NM), and Northern Hemisphere at low latitude (NL) are 0.928, 0.885, and 0.590, respectively, indicating reasonable performance for the LSTM forecasting model. To improve the performance of the model, we applied the LSTM migration models to the Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container (CARIBIC) flights in the Northern Hemisphere from 2018 to 2019 and three urban agglomerations (the Sichuan Basin (SCB), North China Plain (NCP), and Yangtze River Delta region (YRD)) between 2018 and 2019. The results show that our models performed well on the CARIBIC data set, with a high R2 equal to 0.754. The daily and monthly surface ozone concentrations for 2018–2019 in the three urban agglomerations were estimated from meteorological and ancillary variables. Our results suggest that the LSTM models can accurately estimate the monthly surface ozone concentrations in the three clusters, with relatively high coefficients of 0.815–0.889, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 7.769–8.729 ppb, and mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 6.111–6.930 ppb. The daily scale performance was not as high as the monthly scale performance, with the accuracy of R2 = 0.636~0.737, RMSE = 14.543–16.916 ppb, MAE = 11.130–12.687 ppb. In general, the trained module based on LSTM is robust and can capture the variation of the atmospheric ozone distribution. Moreover, it also contributes to our understanding of the mechanism of air pollution, especially increasing our comprehension of pollutant areas.

Modeling PM2.5 and O3 with aerosol feedbacks using WRF/Chem over the Sichuan Basin, southwestern China

With a large population and fast economic growth, the Sichuan Basin (SCB) has been suffering from air pollution in recent years. However, limited studies have estimated air pollution levels in consideration of the feedbacks of aerosols on meteorology in the SCB. In this study, simulation of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) over the SCB with a horizontal resolution of 36 km over China and 12 km was conducted for summer (July) and winter (January) in 2015 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). The model well captured the variations of PM_2.5 and daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) O₃ in the 18 cities, especially O₃ in July and PM_2.5 in January. From rim to center, averaged PM_2.5 increased from 40 μg/m³ to 100 μg/m³ in January while averaged O₃ ranged from 60 to 90 ppb in July. Aerosol radiation decreased surface temperature by 1-2 °C, wind speed (WS) by ∼ 0.3 m/s, planetary boundary layer (PBL) height by 10-20%, solar radiation (SR) by ∼30%, and precipitation by 0.02-0.2 mm, while increased relative humidity (RH) by up to 2-4% in January, which resulted in up to 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 in January and 2 ppb decrease of O₃ in July. The effect increased as the increase of PM_2.5 concentration and can be up to 18% in January and 25% in July. This study highlights the importance of considering meteorology feedbacks in understanding and controlling air pollution in the SCB.

Aircraft observations since the 1990s reveal increases of tropospheric ozone at multiple locations across the Northern Hemisphere

Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas, is detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity, and controls the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Because of its high spatial and temporal variability and limited observations, quantifying net tropospheric ozone changes across the Northern Hemisphere on time scales of two decades had not been possible. Here, we show, using newly available observations from an extensive commercial aircraft monitoring network, that tropospheric ozone has increased above 11 regions of the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-1990s, consistent with the OMI/MLS satellite product. The net result of shifting anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions has led to an increase of ozone and its radiative forcing above all 11 study regions of the Northern Hemisphere, despite NO x emission reductions at midlatitudes.

Responses of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations to changes of meteorology and emissions in China

Tremendous efforts have been made to reduce the severe air pollution in China since 2013. However, the annual and peak fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations during severe events in winter did not always reduce as expected. This is partially due to the inter-annual variation of meteorology, which affects the emission, transport, transformation, and deposition processes of air pollutants. In this study, the responses of PM_2.5 and ozone (O₃) concentrations to changes in emission and meteorology from 2013 to 2015 were investigated based on ambient measurements and the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations with anthropogenic emissions. It is found that emission reductions in 2014 and 2015 effectively reduced PM_2.5 concentrations by 23.9 and 43.5 μg/m³, respectively, but was partially counteracted by unfavorable meteorology. The negative effects from unfavorable meteorology were significant in extreme pollution events. For example, in December 2015, unfavorable meteorology caused a great increase (90 μg/m³) of PM_2.5 in Beijing. Reduction of primary PM and gaseous precursors led to 13.4 and 16.5 ppb increase of O₃-8 h daily concentrations in the summertime in 2014 and 2015 in comparison of 2013, which was likely caused by the increase of solar actinic flux due to PM reduction. In addition, reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions in areas with negative NOx-O₃ sensitivity could lead to an increase of O₃ formation when the reduction of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was not sufficient. This unintended enhanced O₃ formation could also lead to higher O₃ in downwind areas. This study emphasizes the role of meteorology in pollution control, validates the effectiveness of PM_2.5 control measures in China, and highlights the importance of appropriate joint reduction of NOx and VOCs to simultaneously decrease O₃ and PM_2.5 for higher air quality.

100 Years of Progress in Gas-Phase Atmospheric Chemistry Research

Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Glandular trichomes as a barrier against atmospheric oxidative stress: Relationships with ozone uptake, leaf damage, and emission of LOX products across a diverse set of species

There is a spectacular variability in trichome types and densities and trichome metabolites across species, but the functional implications of this variability in protecting from atmospheric oxidative stresses remain poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible protective role of glandular and non-glandular trichomes against ozone stress. We investigated the interspecific variation in types and density of trichomes and how these traits were associated with elevated ozone impacts on visible leaf damage, net assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, chlorophyll fluorescence, and emissions of lipoxygenase pathway products in 24 species with widely varying trichome characteristics and taxonomy. Both peltate and capitate glandular trichomes played a critical role in reducing leaf ozone uptake, but no impact of non-glandular trichomes was observed. Across species, the visible ozone damage varied 10.1-fold, reduction in net assimilation rate 3.3-fold, and release of lipoxygenase compounds 14.4-fold, and species with lower glandular trichome density were more sensitive to ozone stress and more vulnerable to ozone damage compared to species with high glandular trichome density. These results demonstrate that leaf surface glandular trichomes constitute a major factor in reducing ozone toxicity and function as a chemical barrier that neutralizes the ozone before it enters the leaf.

Multi-year composite view of ozone enhancements and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in dry intrusions of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones

We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange with cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), contrasting them to composites obtained with the Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) reanalyses and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) for 2005-2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites feature a 1,000 km-wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion (DI) airstream to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased H2O. MLS composites at 261 hPa show that the DI O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. At 424 hPa, TES composites display maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of two too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich DI forms a vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring DIs, O3 is enhanced by 100 ppbv or 100-130% at 300 hPa, with significant enhancements below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30%). We estimate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119±56 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42±20 % of the NH extratropical O3 STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and Ozone over the Northeast US

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001 - 2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically significant decreasing trends (-4.3 - -2.3 ppbv yr-1), while baseline O3 did not display trends at any site. In examining the data by season, wintertime and springtime baseline CO at the two highest sites (1.5 km and 2 km asl) did not experience significant trends. Decadal increasing trends (~2.55 ppbv yr-1) were found in springtime and wintertime baseline O3 in southern New Hampshire, which was associated with anthropogenic NOx emission reductions from the urban corridor. Biomass burning emissions impacted summertime baseline CO with ~38% variability from wildfire emissions in Russia and ~22% from Canada at five sites and impacted baseline O3 at the two high elevation sites only with ~27% variability from wildfires in both Russia and Canada. The Arctic Oscillation was negatively correlated with summertime baseline O3, while the North Atlantic Oscillation was positively correlated with springtime baseline O3. This study suggested that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, and meteorological conditions were important factors working together to determine baseline O3 and CO in the Northeast U.S. during the 2000s.

Stomatal uptake of O3 in a Schima superba plantation in subtropical China derived from sap flow measurements

Canopy stomatal ozone (O3) flux (Fst,O3) in a plantation of Schima superba, an ecologically and economically important evergreen pioneer tree species in subtropical China, was quantified based on sap flow measurements during a 2-year period. Mean Fst,O3 and accumulated Fst,O3 (AFst0) were significantly higher in wet seasons from April to September (4.62 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and 35.37 mmol m(-2), respectively) than in dry seasons from October to March (3.90 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and 24.15 mmol m(-1), respectively), yet comparable between the 2 years of the experiment, being 4.23 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and 58.23 mmol m(-2) in April 2013-March 2014 and 4.29 nmol m(-2) s(-1) and 60.80 mmol m(-2) in April 2014-March 2015, respectively. At the diurnal scale, Fst,O3 generally peaked in the early to middle afternoon hours (13:00-15:00), while the maximum stomatal conductance (Gst,O3) typically occurred in the middle to late morning hours (09:00-11:00). Monthly integrated AFst0 reached the maximum in July, although accumulated O3 exposure (SUM0) was highest in October. Seasonally or yearly, the accumulated O3 doses, either exposure-based or flux-based, notably exceeded the currently adopted critical thresholds for the protection of forest trees. These results, on the one hand, demonstrated the decoupling between the stomatal uptake of O3 and its environmental exposure level; on the other hand, indicated the potential O3 risk for S. superba in the experimental site. Therefore, the present study endorses the use of sap flow measurements as a feasible tool for estimating Fst,O3, and the transition from the exposure-based toward flux-based metrics for assessing O3 risk for forest trees. Further studies are urgently needed to relate stomatal O3 uptake doses with tree growth reductions for an improved understanding of O3 effects on trees under natural conditions.

Tropospheric ozonesonde profiles at long-term U.S. monitoring sites: 1. A climatology based on self-organizing maps

Sonde-based climatologies of tropospheric ozone (O₃) are vital for developing satellite retrieval algorithms and evaluating chemical transport model output. Typical O₃ climatologies average measurements by latitude or region, and season. Recent analysis using self-organizing maps (SOM) to cluster ozonesondes from two tropical sites found clusters of O₃ mixing ratio profiles are an excellent way to capture O₃ variability and link meteorological influences to O₃ profiles. Clusters correspond to distinct meteorological conditions, e.g. convection, subsidence, cloud cover, and transported pollution. Here, the SOM technique is extended to four long-term U.S. sites (Boulder, CO; Huntsville, AL; Trinidad Head, CA; Wallops Island, VA) with 4530 total profiles. Sensitivity tests on k-means algorithm and SOM justify use of 3×3 SOM (nine clusters). At each site, SOM clusters together O₃ profiles with similar tropopause height, 500 hPa height/temperature, and amount of tropospheric and total column O₃. Cluster means are compared to monthly O₃ climatologies. For all four sites, near-tropopause O₃ is double (over +100 parts per billion by volume; ppbv) the monthly climatological O₃ mixing ratio in three clusters that contain 13 - 16% of profiles, mostly in winter and spring. Large mid-tropospheric deviations from monthly means (-6 ppbv, +7 - 10 ppbv O₃ at 6 km) are found in two of the most populated clusters (combined 36 - 39% of profiles). These two clusters contain distinctly polluted (summer) and clean O₃ (fall-winter, high tropopause) profiles, respectively. As for tropical profiles previously analyzed with SOM, O₃ averages are often poor representations of U.S. O₃ profile statistics.

Origins of tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV) over Réunion: A model investigation

Observations from long-term ozonesonde measurements show robust variations and trends in the evolution of ozone in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion Island (21.1°S, 55.5°E) in June-August. Here we examine possible causes of the observed ozone variation at Réunion Island using hindcast simulations by the stratosphere-troposphere Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model (GMI-CTM) for 1992-2014, driven by assimilated Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Réunion Island is at the edge of the subtropical jet, a region of strong stratospheric-tropospheric exchange (STE). Our analysis implies that the large interannual variation (IAV) of upper tropospheric ozone over Réunion is driven by the large IAV of the stratospheric influence. The IAV of the large-scale, quasi-horizontal wind patterns also contributes to the IAV of ozone in the upper troposphere. Comparison to a simulation with constant emissions indicates that increasing emissions do not lead to the maximum trend in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion during austral winter implied by the sonde data. The effects of increasing emission over southern Africa are limited to the lower troposphere near the surface in August - September.

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.