Mechanism of subsidence of the Northeast Japan forearc during the late period of a gigantic earthquake cycle

The forearc in Northeast Japan subsided (3–4 mm/year) in the interseismic ~100 years before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M_W9.1) just like it did during this event. This study attempts to understand the mechanism of the vertical displacement of the forearc during gigantic earthquake cycles via numerical modeling. The results suggest that the interseismic subsidence rate in the forearc increases with the duration of the locking of the asperity of the gigantic earthquake over several hundred years, due to the increasing slip deficit rate on the deeper parts of the plate interface. The increasing slip deficit rate is caused by both the decreasing the shear stress in the shear zone owing to the continuous locking of the asperity and the increasing the mobility of the continental lithosphere owing to the viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge. The deep slip deficit rate extending to ~100 km depth of the plate interface is necessary to explain the observed interseismic forearc subsidence rate. The results also suggest hundreds of years of continuous locking of the asperities of a gigantic earthquake in the western Kuril subduction zone, where fast forearc subsidence has been observed as well.

Postseismic gravity change after the 2006-2007 great earthquake doublet and constraints on the asthenosphere structure in the central Kuril Islands

Large earthquakes often trigger viscoelastic adjustment for years to decades depending on the rheological properties and the nature and spatial extent of coseismic stress. The 2006 M_w8.3 thrust and 2007 M_w8.1 normal fault earthquakes of the central Kuril Islands resulted in significant postseismic gravity change in GRACE but without a discernible coseismic gravity change. The gravity increase of ~4 µGal, observed consistently from various GRACE solutions around the epicentral area during 2007-2015, is interpreted as resulting from gradual seafloor uplift by ~6 cm produced by postseismic relaxation. The GRACE data are best fit with a model of 25-35 km for the elastic thickness and ~10¹⁸ Pa s for the Maxwell viscosity of the asthenosphere. The large measurable postseismic gravity change (greater than coseismic change) emphasizes the importance of viscoelastic relaxation in understanding tectonic deformation and fault-locking scenarios in the Kuril subduction zone.