Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route

The navigability of Arctic maritime passages has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice in recent decades, and it is projected that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will support further increases in shipping in the future. However, the opening of the NSR may bring potential environmental and climate risks to the Arctic and the rest of the world. This investigation assessed shipping emissions along the NSR and the climate impacts under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C to support coordinated international decision-making. The results show that the magnitude of annual energy consumption of ships along the NSR is 109 kWh under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. The environmental impacts of the shipping decrease with fuel transition to clean, carbon-neutral fuel sources. Specifically, the maximum emission is CO2 (106 t), followed by NOX (104-5 t), CO (103-4 t), SOX (103 t), CH4 (102-3 t), organic carbon (102-3 t), N2O (101-2 t), and black carbon (BC, 101-2 t), in which CO2 and BC have great difference under high and low loads. Total emission exacerbates Arctic and global warming, and it is more significant in the Arctic in the next twenty years and across the rest of the world in the next one hundred years. The greatest climate impact factor is CO2, followed by NOX and BC which are more important in global and Arctic warming, respectively.

New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications

As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, the seasonally navigable Arctic expected by mid-century or earlier is likely to facilitate the growth of polar maritime and coastal development. Here, we systematically explore the potentials for opening of trans-Arctic sea routes across a range of emissions futures and multi-model ensembles on daily timescales. We find a new Transpolar Sea Route in the western Arctic for open water vessels starting in 2045 in addition to the central Arctic corridor over the North Pole, with its frequency comparable to the latter during the 2070s under the worst-case scenario. The emergence of this new western route could be decisive for operational and strategic outcomes. Specifically, the route redistributes transits away from the Russian-administered Northern Sea Route, lowering the navigational and financial risks and the regulatory friction. Navigational risks arise from narrow straits that are often icy choke points. Financial risks arise from the substantial interannual sea ice variability and associated uncertainty. Regulatory friction arises from Russian requirements imposed under the Polar Code and Article 234 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. These imposts are significantly reduced with shipping route regimes that enable open water transits wholly outside Russian territorial waters, and these regimes are revealed most accurately using daily ice information. The near-term navigability transition period (2025-2045) may offer an opportunity for maritime policy evaluation, revision, and action. Our user-inspired evaluation contributes towards achieving operational, economic and geopolitical objectives and serves the goal of planning a resilient, sustainable, and adaptive Arctic future.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4.

Quantification and physical analysis of nanoparticle emissions from a marine engine using different fuels and a laboratory wet scrubber

A marine test-bed diesel engine was used to study how international fuel sulfur content (FSC) regulations and wet scrubbing can affect physical properties of submicron exhaust particles. Particle size distributions, particle number and mass emission factors as well as effective densities of particulate emissions were measured for three distillate fuels of varying FSC and a laboratory wet scrubber. While particle number concentrations were reduced by up to 9% when switching to low FSC fuels, wet scrubbing led to increased ultrafine particulate emissions (<30 nm). Exhaust processed through the scrubber was also found to have particles with greater effective densities, a result that directly contradicts the particulate characteristics of low FSC fuel emissions. The results demonstrate that alternative pathways to comply with marine FSC regulations can have opposing effects and thus may have very different implications for important atmospheric processes. The relevance for air quality, and the potential implications for cloud and climate interactions are discussed.

Impact of shipping emissions on air pollution and pollutant deposition over the Barents Sea

Arctic warming leading to reduced summertime sea-ice is likely to lead to increased local shipping especially along the Northeast Passage near the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, which are shorter than the traditional southerly routes. Here, the regional chemistry-transport model WRF-Chem is used to examine the effects of shipping emissions on levels of air pollutants and deposition fluxes over the Barents Sea both for present-day and future conditions, based on a high growth scenario. Present-day shipping emissions are found to have already substantial effects on ozone concentrations, but limited effects on sulphate and nitrate aerosols. Predicted future changes in ozone are also important, particularly in regions with low nitrogen oxide concentrations, and results are sensitive to the way in which diversion shipping is distributed due to non-linear effects on photochemical ozone production. Whilst modest future increases in sulphate and nitrate aerosols are predicted, large enhancements in dry deposition of sulphur dioxide and wet deposition of nitrogen compounds to the Barents Sea are predicted. Such levels of future nitrogen deposition would represent a significant atmospheric source of oceanic nitrogen affecting sensitive marine ecosystems.

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Atmospheric Emissions from Shipping along the Northern Sea Route

Large seasonal and spatial variabilities in Arctic shipping and its associated emissions are expected in the future, due to continuous sea ice decline. This study collected ship traffic data and the associated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM), and black carbon (BC) along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2013. The aim is to analyze the seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions along the NSR. The potential factors for these variations are discussed. The results showed strong seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions. In winter and spring, the number of ships and the associated emissions were low and limited to the Barents Sea. In summer, they almost doubled and showed a clear eastward and northward expansion, covering most of the study area and forming trans-Arctic shipping lanes, which remained throughout the autumn. The spatial distribution of emissions was similar to that for ship traffic, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. SO2 and PM peaked one month prior to the others and exhibited relatively high emissions, especially along shipping lanes, which may be linked to the changes in ship and fuel types.

Trends and variability in polar sea ice, global atmospheric circulations, and baroclinicity

We analyze the polar sea ice distribution and the global sea level pressure (SLP) and baroclinicity distributions over the "satellite" period of 1979-2020. In the Arctic, there are statistically significant sea ice extent (SIE) decreases in all calendar months, and the annual mean has lost 2.22 million km² over the four decades. The Antarctic SIE, in marked contrast, increased up to 2014, then commenced a remarkable retreat (the annual mean ice extent decreased by 2.03 million km² in the 3 years to 2017), and subsequently increased to near its long-term average value in 2020. The shifts in seasonal-mean SLP patterns are consistent with a warming planet. At the synoptic scale, we diagnose the changes in the baroclinicity, the mechanism by which cyclones, fronts, and other weather systems are generated. Through a novel presentation, we give an overview of the relative roles of changes in the vertical shear and static stability in influencing the global trends in baroclinicity. In both the Arctic and Antarctic regions, baroclinicity is shown to have increased in each season (with the sole exception of the Arctic in summer). This increase, coupled with midlatitude decreases in baroclinicity, results in poleward shifts of the storm tracks.

Set sustainable goals for the Arctic gateway coordinated international governance is required to resist yet another tipping point

Global warming is reducing the Arctic sea-ice and causing energetic stress to marine key predatory species such as polar bears and narwhals contributing to the ongoing pollution already threatening the biodiversity and indigenous people of the vulnerable region. Now, the opening of the Arctic gateway and in particular the increase in shipping activities causes further stress to marine mammals in the region. These shipping activities are foreseen to happen in the Northwest and Northeast Passage, Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route in the Arctic Ocean, which could be yet another step towards a crucial tipping point destabilizing global climate, including weathering systems and sea-level rise. This calls for international governance through the establishment of Arctic International National Parks and more Marine Protected Areas through the Arctic Council and UN's Law of the Sea to ensure sustainable use of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters.