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Lark TJ, Hendricks NP, Smith A, Pates N, Spawn-Lee SA, Bougie M, Booth EG, Kucharik CJ, Gibbs HK. Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2101084119. [PMID: 35165202 PMCID: PMC8892349 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2101084119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler J Lark
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726;
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Nathan P Hendricks
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506
| | - Aaron Smith
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
| | - Nicholas Pates
- Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40546
| | - Seth A Spawn-Lee
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Matthew Bougie
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
| | - Eric G Booth
- Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
- Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
| | - Christopher J Kucharik
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Agronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
| | - Holly K Gibbs
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Energy (DOE) Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53726
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