Verifying Experimental Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Hindcasts Across the United States

Changes in wet bulb globe temperature and risk to heat-related hazards in Bangladesh

The rise in temperatures and changes in other meteorological variables have exposed millions of people to health risks in Bangladesh, a densely populated, hot, and humid country. To better assess the threats climate change poses to human health, the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is an important indicator of human heat stress. This study utilized high-resolution reanalysis data from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in outdoor WBGT across Bangladesh from 1979 to 2021, employing Liljegren's model. The study revealed an increase in the annual average WBGT by 0.08-0.5 °C per decade throughout the country, with a more pronounced rise in the southeast and northeast regions. Additionally, the number of days with WBGT levels associated with high and extreme risks of heat-related illnesses has shown an upward trend. Specifically, during the monsoon period (June to September), there has been an increase of 2-4 days per decade, and during the pre-monsoon period (March to May), an increase of 1-3 days per decade from 1979 to 2021. Furthermore, the results indicated that the escalation in WBGT has led to a five-fold increase in affected areas and a three-fold increase in days of high and extreme heat stress during the monsoon season in recent years compared to the earlier period. Trend and relative importance analyses of various meteorological variables demonstrated that air temperature is the primary driver behind Bangladesh's rising WBGT and related health risks, followed by specific humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Extreme Heat and Occupational Health Risks

Climate change poses a significant occupational health hazard. Rising temperatures and more frequent heat waves are expected to cause increasing heat-related morbidity and mortality for workers across the globe. Agricultural, construction, military, firefighting, mining, and manufacturing workers are at particularly high risk for heat-related illness (HRI). Various factors, including ambient temperatures, personal protective equipment, work arrangements, physical exertion, and work with heavy equipment may put workers at higher risk for HRI. While extreme heat will impact workers across the world, workers in low- and middle-income countries will be disproportionately affected. Tracking occupational HRI will be critical to informing prevention and mitigation strategies. Renewed investment in these strategies, including workplace heat prevention programs and regulatory standards for indoor and outdoor workers, will be needed. Additional research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in order to successfully reduce the risk of HRI in the workplace.

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States

Climate change is escalating the threat of heat stress to global public health, with the majority of humans today facing increasingly severe and prolonged heat waves. Accurate weather data reflecting the complexity of measuring heat stress is crucial for reducing the impact of extreme heat on health worldwide. Previous studies have employed Heat Index (HI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metrics to understand extreme heat exposure, forming the basis for heat stress guidelines. However, systematic comparisons of meteorological and climate data sets used for these metrics and the related parameters, like air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation crucial for human thermoregulation, are lacking. We compared three heat measures (HImax, WBGTBernard, and WBGTLiljegren) approximated from gridded weather data sets (ERA5-Land, PRISM, Daymet) with ground-based data, revealing strong agreement from HI and WBGTBernard (R 2 0.76-0.95, RMSE 1.69-6.64°C). Discrepancies varied by Köppen-Geiger climates (e.g., Adjusted R 2 HImax 0.88-0.95, WBGTBernard 0.79-0.97, and WBGTLiljegren 0.80-0.96), and metrological input variables (Adjusted R 2 T max 0.86-0.94, T min 0.91-0.94, Wind 0.33, Solarmax 0.38, Solaravg 0.38, relative humidity 0.51-0.74). Gridded data sets can offer reliable heat exposure assessment, but further research and local networks are vital to reduce measurement errors to fully enhance our understanding of how heat stress measures link to health outcomes.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid

The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an international standard heat index used by the health, industrial, sports, and climate sectors to assess thermal comfort during heat extremes. Observations of its components, the globe and the wet bulb temperature (WBT), are however sparse. Therefore WBGT is difficult to derive, making it common to rely on approximations, such as the ones developed by Liljegren et al. (2008, https://doi.org/10.1080/15459620802310770, W B G T L i l j e g r e n ) and by the American College of Sports Medicine ( W B G T A C S M 87 ). In this study, a global data set is created by implementing an updated WBGT method using ECMWF ERA5 gridded meteorological variables and is evaluated against existing WBGT methods. The new method, W B G T B r i m i c o m b e , uses globe temperature calculated using mean radiant temperature and is found to be accurate in comparison to W B G T L i l j e g r e n across three heatwave case studies. In addition, it is found that W B G T A C S M 87 is not an adequate approximation of WBGT. Our new method is a candidate for a global forecasting early warning system.