Investigation of Forest Fire Activity Changes Over the Central India Domain Using Satellite Observations During 2001-2020

Spatial analysis and machine learning prediction of forest fire susceptibility: a comprehensive approach for effective management and mitigation

Forest fires (FF) in tropical seasonal forests impact ecosystem. Addressing FF in tropical ecosystems has become a priority to mitigate impacts on biodiversity loss and climate change. The escalating frequency and intensity of FF globally have become a mounting concern. Understanding their tendencies, patterns, and vulnerabilities is imperative for conserving ecosystems and facilitating the development of effective prevention and management strategies. This study investigates the trends, patterns, and spatiotemporal distribution of FF for the period of 2001-2022, and delineates the forest fire susceptibility zones in Odisha State, India. The study utilized: (a) MODIS imagery to examine active fire point data; (b) Kernel density tools; (c) FF risk prediction using two machine learning algorithms, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF); (d) Receiver Operating Characteristic and Area Under the Curve, along with various evaluation metrics; and (e) a total of 19 factors, including three topographical, seven climatic, four biophysical, and five anthropogenic, to create a map indicating areas vulnerable to FF. The validation results revealed that the RF model achieved a precision exceeding 94 % on the validation datasets, while the SVM model reached 89 %. The estimated forest fire susceptibility zones using RF and SVM techniques indicated that 20.14 % and 16.72 % of the area, respectively, fall under the "Very High Forest Fire" susceptibility class. Trend analysis reveals a general upward trend in forest fire occurrences (R2 = 0.59), with a notable increase after 2015, peaking in 2021. Notably, Angul district was identified as the most affected area, documenting the highest number of forest fire incidents over the past 22 years. Additionally, forest fire mitigation plans have been developed by drawing insights from forest fire management strategies implemented in various countries worldwide. Overall, this analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and forest management authorities to develop effective strategies for forest fire prevention and mitigation.

Quantifying forest resilience post forest fire disturbances using time-series satellite data

Quantification of forest resilience will help us to manage the sustainability of the forest environment and the safety of biodiversity. Measuring forest resilience is crucial for ensuring long-term health of the forest ecosystem in the face of ongoing environmental changes and disturbances. This study focuses on providing a framework to estimate forest resilience scores to assess the vegetation condition after a disturbance. The resilience calculation framework provided uses number of recovery days, the phenological performance level of vegetation in the year when the disturbance took place, long-term mean phenological performance, and greenness levels in subsequent year to calculate the final resilience score at each pixel. Recovery of forests using Landsat data with the help of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or Normalized Burn Ratio poses a challenge for continuous monitoring of forested landscapes due to cloud cover and availability of scenes at continuous intervals in Landsat datasets. In this regard, MODIS 16-day EVI products were used in this study (2001 to 2020) for monitoring vegetation health before, during, and after the disaster. Bandhavgarh National Park (BNP) located in Madhya Pradesh, India is considered for this study as it witnessed major forest fire breakouts in the second half of March 2018. The objectives of the study are the following: (1) to estimate post-fire recovery days and (2) to formulate new resilience index. The study revealed that the northern part of BNP is more vulnerable and shows slow recovery. The relationship between occupation of people living inside and in the neighboring area with forest resilience is also investigated in this study.

Detection of forest fires and pollutant plume dispersion using IoT air quality sensors

The widespread adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors has revolutionized our understanding of the formation and mitigation of air pollution, significantly improving the accuracy of predictions related to air quality and emission sources. This study demonstrates the use of IoT air quality sensors to detect forest fire incidents by focusing on an area affected by forest fires in Tak Province, Thailand, from January to May 2021. We employed PM2.5 and carbon monoxide measurements from IoT sensors for forest fire detection and utilized the number of hotspots reported through satellite and human observations to identify forest fire incidents. Our data analysis revealed three distinct periods with forest fires and three periods without fires (non-forest fires). For model training, two forest fire and non-forest fire periods were selected and the remaining periods were set aside for validation. J48, a computer algorithm that helps make decisions by organizing information into a tree-like structure based on key characteristics, was used to construct the decision-tree model. Our model achieved an accuracy rate of 72% when classifying forest fire incidents using the training data and a solid accuracy of 69% on the validation data. In addition, we investigated the dispersion of PM2.5 plumes using a regression model. Notably, our findings highlighted the robust explanatory power of the lag time in PM2.5, for predicting PM2.5, in the next 15 min. Our analysis highlights the potential of IoT-based air quality sensors to enhance forest fire detection and predict pollution plume dispersion once fires are detected.

Spatiotemporal distribution of air pollutants during a heat wave-induced forest fire event in Uttarakhand

Prevailing dry conditions and rainfall deficit during the spring season in North India led to heat wave conditions which resulted in widespread and intense forest fire events in the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand during April 16-30, 2022. A total of 7589 active fires were detected by VIIRS during the second half of April 2022 compared to 1558 during the first half. The TROPOMI observed total column values of CO and NO2 increased by 4.4% and 11.7%, respectively during April 16-30, 2022 with respect to April 1-15, 2022. A noticeable increase in surface level concentration of trace gases was also observed at Dehradun. In situ measurements of CO, NOx, and O3 during April 16-30, 2022 show an increase of 133, 35, and 6% compared to previous year observations during the same period. Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized to quantitatively estimate the contribution of this event on the distribution of air pollutants over this state. The model results were evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, upper air soundings, and TROPOMI-retrieved total column density (TCD) of CO, NO2, and O3. Two simulations with (Fire) and without (NoFire) biomass burning emissions input were performed to quantify the contribution of forest fires to the concentration of trace gases and particulates. The CO, NO2, and O3 emitted/produced from forest fire over Uttarakhand during April 2022 contributed approximately 39.95, 35.73, and 9.97% to the surface concentration of respective gas. In the case of aerosols, it was around 71.20, 71.44, and 33.62% for PM2.5, PM10, and BC respectively. The vertical profile analysis of pollutants revealed that extreme forest fire events can perturb the distribution of air pollutants from the surface up to 450 hPa.