Emissions of Tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and Hexafluoroethane (C2F6) From East Asia: 2008 to 2019

Substantial increase in perfluorocarbons CF4 (PFC-14) and C2F6 (PFC-116) emissions in China

The perfluorocarbons tetrafluoromethane (CF4, PFC-14) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6, PFC-116) are potent greenhouse gases with near-permanent atmospheric lifetimes relative to human timescales and global warming potentials thousands of times that of CO2. Using long-term atmospheric observations from a Chinese network and an inverse modeling approach (top-down method), we determined that CF4 emissions in China increased from 4.7 (4.2-5.0, 68% uncertainty interval) Gg y-1 in 2012 to 8.3 (7.7-8.9) Gg y-1 in 2021, and C2F6 emissions in China increased from 0.74 (0.66-0.80) Gg y-1 in 2011 to 1.32 (1.24-1.40) Gg y-1 in 2021, both increasing by approximately 78%. Combined emissions of CF4 and C2F6 in China reached 78 Mt CO2-eq in 2021. The absolute increase in emissions of each substance in China between 2011-2012 and 2017-2020 was similar to (for CF4), or greater than (for C2F6), the respective absolute increase in global emissions over the same period. Substantial CF4 and C2F6 emissions were identified in the less-populated western regions of China, probably due to emissions from the expanding aluminum industry in these resource-intensive regions. It is likely that the aluminum industry dominates CF4 emissions in China, while the aluminum and semiconductor industries both contribute to C2F6 emissions. Based on atmospheric observations, this study validates the emission magnitudes reported in national bottom-up inventories and provides insights into detailed spatial distributions and emission sources beyond what is reported in national bottom-up inventories.

Increases in Global and East Asian Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF3) Emissions Inferred from Atmospheric Observations

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas that is widely used in the manufacture of semiconductors, photovoltaic cells, and flat panel displays. Using atmospheric observations from eight monitoring stations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and inverse modeling with a global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), we quantify global and regional NF3 emission from 2015 to 2021. We find that global emissions have grown from 1.93 ± 0.58 Gg yr-1 (± one standard deviation) in 2015 to 3.38 ± 0.61 Gg yr-1 in 2021, with an average annual increase of 10% yr-1. The available observations allow us to attribute significant emissions to China (0.93 ± 0.15 Gg yr-1 in 2015 and 1.53 ± 0.20 Gg yr-1 in 2021) and South Korea (0.38 ± 0.07 Gg yr-1 to 0.65 ± 0.10 Gg yr-1). East Asia contributes around 73% of the global NF3 emission increase from 2015 to 2021: approximately 41% of the increase is from emissions from China (with Taiwan included), 19% from South Korea, and 13% from Japan. For Japan, which is the only one of these three countries to submit annual NF3 emissions to UNFCCC, our bottom-up and top-down estimates are higher than reported. With increasing demand for electronics, especially flat panel displays, emissions are expected to further increase in the future.

Revealing the global emission gaps for fully fluorinated greenhouse gases

In response to the global trend of climate change, it is important to accurately quantify emissions of fully fluorinated greenhouse gases (FFGHGs, referring to SF6/NF3/CF4/C2F6/C3F8/c-C4F8 here). Atmospheric observation-based top-down methods and activity-based bottom-up methods are usually used together to estimate FFGHG emissions at the global and regional levels. In this work, emission gaps at global and regional levels are discussed among top-down studies, between the top-down and bottom-up FFGHG emissions, and among bottom-up emissions. Generally, trends and magnitudes of individual FFGHG emissions among top-down estimates are close to each other within the uncertainties. However, global bottom-up inventories show discrepancies in FFGHG emissions among each other in trends and magnitudes. The differences in emission magnitudes are up to 93%, 90%, 88%, 83%, 87%, and 85% for SF6, NF3, CF4, C2F6, C3F8, and c-C4F8, respectively. Besides, we reveal the insufficient regional TD studies and the lack of atmospheric observation data/stations especially in areas with potential FFGHG emissions. We make recommendations regarding the best practices for improving our understanding of these emissions, including both top-down and bottom-up methods.

Identifying emission sources of CH4 in East Asia based on in-situ observations of atmospheric δ13C-CH4 and C2H6

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas influenced by human activity. The increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations contributed ~23 % to the anthropogenic radiative forcing (Saunois et al., 2020). The current anthropogenic CH4 emissions trajectory implies that large emissions reductions are needed to meet the target of the Paris Agreement (Nisbet et al., 2019). For effective regulation of CH4, it is important to identify spatiotemporal emission sources, in particular those from East Asia - one of the largest CH4 emitters. In this study, we present in-situ observations of atmospheric CH4 concentrations (i.e., dry air mole fractions in part per billion (ppb)) and carbon isotopic compositions of CH4 made during 2017-2020 at the Gosan station (GSN, 33.3°N, 126.2°E, 72 m a.s.l) which is representative of regional background conditions in East Asia. The annual growth rate of the observed CH4 baseline concentrations was 11 ± 1 ppb yr-1. The enhanced pollution concentrations of CH4 showed seasonally distinctive correlations with the corresponding δ13C-CH4. The CH4 source isotopic signature for winter derived based on both the Keeling and Miller-Tans approaches was -40.7 ± 3.4 ‰, suggesting dominant thermogenic sources (e.g., coal and/or gas combustion), whereas the source signature for summer was estimated as -54.1 ± 1.2 ‰, which seemed to represent both microbial sources (e.g., rice paddies) and fossil fuel sources of CH4 emissions. Based on the δ13C-CH4 source signatures, we were able to infer that the proportional contribution of microbial sources to CH4 summer emissions was ranges from 45 to 79 %. The finding indicates that microbial sources account for a substantial portion of CH4 summer emissions, consistent with estimates of 74-80 % derived from the observed correlation between CH4 and C2H6, which serves as a complementary tracer for fossil fuel sources.

In Situ Observations of Halogenated Gases at the Shangdianzi Background Station and Emission Estimates for Northern China

Halogenated gases include ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons, halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorinated gases. In situ atmospheric observations of major halogenated gases were conducted at the Shangdianzi (SDZ) background station, China, from October 2020 to September 2021 using ODS5-pro, a newly developed measurement system. The measurement time series of 36 halogenated gases showed occasional pollution events, where background conditions represented 25% (CH₂Cl₂) to 81% (CF₃Cl, CFC-13) of the measurements. The annual mean background mole fractions of most species at SDZ were consistent with those obtained at the Mace Head station in Ireland. The background conditions were distinguished from pollution events, and the enhanced mole fractions were used to estimate the emissions of four categories of fluorinated gases (F-gases) from northern China using a tracer ratio method. The CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-equiv) emission of F-gases from northern China reached 181 ± 18 Tg year^-1 during 2020-2021. Among the four categories of F-gases estimated, SF₆ accounted for the highest proportion of CO₂-equiv emissions (24%), followed by HFC-23 (22%), HFC-125 (17%), HFC-134a (13%), NF₃ (10%), CF₄ (5.9%), HFC-143a (3.9%), HFC-32 (3.4%), and HFC-152a (0.2%).