Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Therapeutic efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria treatment in Metehara, Central-east Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major global health problem although there was a remarkable achievement between 2000 and 2015. Malaria drug resistance, along with several other factors, presents a significant challenge to malaria control and elimination efforts. Numerous countries in sub-Saharan Africa have documented the presence of confirmed or potential markers of partial resistance against artemisinin, the drug of choice for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends regular surveillance of artemisinin therapeutic efficacy to inform policy decisions.

METHODS

This study aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (AL), which is the first-line treatment for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Ethiopia since 2004. Using a single-arm prospective evaluation design, the study assessed the clinical and parasitological responses of patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Metehara Health Centre, central-east Ethiopia. Out of 2332 malaria suspects (1187 males, 1145 females) screened, 80 (50 males, 30 females) were enrolled, followed up for 28 days, and 73 (44 males, 29 females) completed the follow up. The study was conducted and data was analysed by employing the per-protocol and Kaplan-Meier analyses following the WHO Malaria Therapeutic Efficacy Evaluation Guidelines 2009.

RESULTS

The results indicated rapid parasite clearance and resolution of clinical symptoms, with all patients achieving complete recovery from asexual parasitaemia and fever by day (D) 3. The prevalence of gametocytes decreased from 6.3% on D0 to 2.5% on D2, D3, D7, and ultimately achieving complete clearance afterward.

CONCLUSION

The overall cure rate for AL treatment was 100%, demonstrating its high efficacy in effectively eliminating malaria parasites in patients. No serious adverse events related to AL treatment were reported during the study, suggesting its safety and tolerability among the participants. These findings confirm that AL remains a highly efficacious treatment for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in the study site after 20 years of its introduction in Ethiopia.

The effect of explicit convection on simulated malaria transmission across Africa

Malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa is sensitive to rainfall and temperature. Whilst different malaria modelling techniques and climate simulations have been used to predict malaria transmission risk, most of these studies use coarse-resolution climate models. In these models convection, atmospheric vertical motion driven by instability gradients and responsible for heavy rainfall, is parameterised. Over the past decade enhanced computational capabilities have enabled the simulation of high-resolution continental-scale climates with an explicit representation of convection. In this study we use two malaria models, the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) and Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI), to investigate the effect of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission. The concluded impact of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen malaria model and local climatic conditions. For instance, in the East African highlands, cooler temperatures when explicitly representing convection decreases LMM-predicted malaria transmission risk by approximately 55%, but has a negligible effect in VECTRI simulations. Even though explicitly representing convection improves rainfall characteristics, concluding that explicit convection improves simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen metric and malaria model. For example, whilst we conclude improvements of 45% and 23% in root mean squared differences of the annual-mean reproduction number and entomological inoculation rate for VECTRI and the LMM respectively, bias-correcting mean climate conditions minimises these improvements. The projected impact of anthropogenic climate change on malaria incidence is also sensitive to the chosen malaria model and representation of convection. The LMM is relatively insensitive to future changes in precipitation intensity, whilst VECTRI predicts increased risk across the Sahel due to enhanced rainfall. We postulate that VECTRI's enhanced sensitivity to precipitation changes compared to the LMM is due to the inclusion of surface hydrology. Future research should continue assessing the effect of high-resolution climate modelling in impact-based forecasting.

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

Analysing the six-year malaria trends at Metehara Health Centre in Central Ethiopia: the impact of resurgence on the 2030 elimination goals

BACKGROUND

Despite Ethiopia's concerted efforts to eliminate malaria by 2030, the disease continues to pose a significant public health and socioeconomic challenge in the country. The year 2021 witnessed 2.78 million malaria cases and 8041 associated deaths, emphasizing the persistent threat. Monitoring the prevalence trend of malaria is crucial for devising effective control and elimination strategies. This study aims to assess the trend of malaria prevalence at the Metehara Health Centre in the East Shoa Zone, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective study, spanning from February to September 2023, utilized malaria registration laboratory logbooks at Metehara Health Centre to evaluate the prevalence of malaria from 2017/18 to 2022/23. Malaria and related data were collected using a pre-designed data collection sheet. Descriptive statistics were employed for data summarization, presented through graphs and tables.

RESULTS

Out of 59,250 examined blood films, 17.4% confirmed the presence of Plasmodium infections. Among the confirmed cases, 74.3%, 23.8%, and 1.84% were attributed to Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and mixed infections, respectively. The trend of malaria exhibited a steady decline from 2017/18 to 2021/22, reaching 9.8% prevalence. However, an abrupt increase to 26.5% was observed in 2022/23. Males accounted for a higher proportion (66%) of cases compared to females (34%). The age group 15-24 years experienced the highest malaria incidence at 42%. Notably, malaria cases peaked during autumn (September to November) at 43% and reached the lowest percentage during spring (March to May) at 13%.

CONCLUSION

Malaria persists as a significant health challenge in and around Metehara, central Ethiopia, predominantly driven by Plasmodium falciparum. The five-year declining trend was interrupted by a notable upsurge in 2022/23, indicating a resurgence of malaria in the study area. It is imperative to adopt a reverse strategy to sustain the progress achieved by the national malaria control plan.

Assessment of malaria prevention knowledge, attitude, and practice and associated factors among households living in rural malaria-endemic areas in the Afar Pastoral Region of Ethiopia

Background

Malaria morbidity has reduced significantly in most regions of Ethiopia, but it is still a serious issue in the northeast, particularly in the Afar region.

Objective

The study aimed to evaluate household heads' knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward malaria prevention and its associated factors in rural Ada'ar woreda district in the Afar region.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 422 households living in Ada'ar woreda district. A systematic sampling technique was used to select households. A pre-tested, structured questionnaire was used to interview randomly selected adult household heads. Frequency and percentage were computed. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between independent and dependent variables. Statistical significance was considered to be a p-value <0.05.

Results

Nearly two-thirds (64.2%) of household heads had good knowledge of malaria prevention, and 46.9% had a positive attitude toward it. About 17.3 and 56.9% of study participants had good malaria prevention practices and good healthcare seeking behaviors, respectively. Illiterate (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.49-4.63) and low-income (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.2-5.6) participants were more likely to have poor knowledge of malaria prevention (malaria signs and symptoms, malaria transmissions, and malaria prevention methods). Married participants (AOR = 2.52, 95% CI: 1.02-6.29) and illiterates (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.69-4.73) had negative attitudes toward malaria prevention. Household heads with poor knowledge of malaria prevention had 85% higher rates of practicing poor malaria prevention methods (regular bed nets used; AOR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.2-2.8). Young adults (18-25 years) were more likely to have poor healthcare seeking behaviors (AOR = 3.5, 95% CI: 1.73-7.1), while pastoralists had a lower likelihood (AOR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28-0.8).

Conclusion

Knowledge, attitude, and practices toward malaria prevention remain a problem in malaria-endemic rural areas of the Afar region of Ethiopia. There is a need for the implementation of interventions that will focus on increasing knowledge of malaria prevention and encouraging positive attitudes toward it, as well as promoting regular bed net usage and healthcare seeking behaviors.