Characteristics of Earthquake Cycles: A Cross-Dimensional Comparison of 0D to 3D Numerical Models

High-resolution computer simulations of earthquake sequences in three or even two dimensions pose great demands on time and energy, making lower-cost simplifications a competitive alternative. We systematically study the advantages and limitations of simplifications that eliminate spatial dimensions in quasi-dynamic earthquake sequence models, from 3D models with a 2D fault plane down to 0D or 1D models with a 0D fault point. We demonstrate that, when 2D or 3D models produce quasi-periodic characteristic earthquakes, their behavior is qualitatively similar to lower-dimension models. Certain coseismic characteristics like stress drop and fracture energy are largely controlled by frictional parameters and are thus largely comparable. However, other observations are quantitatively clearly affected by dimension reduction. We find corresponding increases in recurrence interval, coseismic slip, peak slip velocity, and rupture speed. These changes are to a large extent explained by the elimination of velocity-strengthening patches that transmit tectonic loading onto the velocity-weakening fault patch, thereby reducing the interseismic stress rate and enhancing the slip deficit. This explanation is supported by a concise theoretical framework, which explains some of these findings quantitatively and effectively estimates recurrence interval and slip. Through accounting for an equivalent stressing rate at the nucleation size h* into 2D and 3D models, 0D or 1D models can also effectively simulate these earthquake cycle parameters. Given the computational efficiency of lower-dimensional models that run more than a million times faster, this paper aims to provide qualitative and quantitative guidance on economical model design and interpretation of modeling studies.

An empirically based steady state friction law and implications for fault stability

Empirically based rate-and-state friction laws (RSFLs) have been proposed to model the dependence of friction forces with slip and time. The relevance of the RSFL for earthquake mechanics is that few constitutive parameters define critical conditions for fault stability (i.e., critical stiffness and frictional fault behavior). However, the RSFLs were determined from experiments conducted at subseismic slip rates (V < 1 cm/s), and their extrapolation to earthquake deformation conditions (V > 0.1 m/s) remains questionable on the basis of the experimental evidence of (1) large dynamic weakening and (2) activation of particular fault lubrication processes at seismic slip rates. Here we propose a modified RSFL (MFL) based on the review of a large published and unpublished data set of rock friction experiments performed with different testing machines. The MFL, valid at steady state conditions from subseismic to seismic slip rates (0.1 µm/s < V < 3 m/s), describes the initiation of a substantial velocity weakening in the 1-20 cm/s range resulting in a critical stiffness increase that creates a peak of potential instability in that velocity regime. The MFL leads to a new definition of fault frictional stability with implications for slip event styles and relevance for models of seismic rupture nucleation, propagation, and arrest.