Modeling the Morphodynamics of Coastal Responses to Extreme Events: What Shape Are We In?

This review focuses on recent advances in process-based numerical models of the impact of extreme storms on sandy coasts. Driven by larger-scale models of meteorology and hydrodynamics, these models simulate morphodynamics across the Sallenger storm-impact scale, including swash,collision, overwash, and inundation. Models are becoming both wider (as more processes are added) and deeper (as detailed physics replaces earlier parameterizations). Algorithms for wave-induced flows and sediment transport under shoaling waves are among the recent developments. Community and open-source models have become the norm. Observations of initial conditions (topography, land cover, and sediment characteristics) have become more detailed, and improvements in tropical cyclone and wave models provide forcing (winds, waves, surge, and upland flow) that is better resolved and more accurate, yielding commensurate improvements in model skill. We foresee that future storm-impact models will increasingly resolve individual waves, apply data assimilation, and be used in ensemble modeling modes to predict uncertainties.

Performance Assessments of Hurricane Wave Hindcasts

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) generate extreme waves, introducing significant property, personal, and financial risks and damage. Accurate simulations of the sea state during these storms are used to support risk and damage assessments and the design of coastal structures. However, the TCs generate a complex surface gravity wave field as a result of the inherently strong temporal and spatial gradients of the wind forcing. This complexity is a significant challenge to model. To advance our understanding of the performance of these models on the eastern seaboard of the United States, we conduct an assessment of four hindcast products, three based on WAVEWATCH-III and the other using the Wave Modeling project, for six major landfall TCs between 2011–2019. Unique to our assessment was a comprehensive analysis of these hindcast products against an array of fixed wave buoys that generate high quality data. The analysis reveals a general tendency for the wave models to underestimate significant wave height (Hs) around the peak of the TC. However, when viewed on an individual TC basis, distinct Hs error patterns are evident. Case studies of hurricanes Sandy and Florence illustrate complex Hs bias patterns, likely resulting from various mechanisms including insufficient resolution, improper wind input and source term parameterization (e.g., drag coefficient), and omission of wave–current interactions. Despite the added challenges of simulating complex wave fields in shallow coastal waters, the higher resolution Wave Information Study and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ST4 parameterization only) hindcasts perform relatively well. Results from this study illustrate the challenge of simulating the spatial and temporal variability of TC generated wave fields and demonstrate the value of in-situ validation data such as the north Atlantic buoy array.

Numerical Modelling of the Effects of the Gulf Stream on the Wave Characteristics

The influence of the Gulf Stream on the wind wave characteristics is investigated. Wave–current interaction inside the current field can result in significant inhomogeneities of the wave field that change the wave spectrum and wave statistics. This study relies on regional realistic simulations using high resolution in time, space and in the spectral space that allow to solve small scale features of the order of 5 km. Wave model simulations are performed with and without ocean currents to understand the impact of the Gulf Stream. Modelled wave spectra are examined along the main axis of the Gulf Stream, and also along a transect that crosses the current. The behavior of significant wave height (Hs), the current speed, as well as the mean wave propagation and the current direction are analyzed at the selected transect locations. It is shown that inside the current the spectral wave energy grows if the wave and the current are aligned and opposed which result in a very peaked and elongated spectrum. The Gulf Stream causes a widening of the spectrum angular distribution. The results indicate that the Hs increases with the current velocity once the waves are inside the Gulf Stream. Most of the time, waves travelled in opposite direction to the current that flows from the SW to the NE, which could explain why inside the Gulf Stream waves are high. The validation of the numerical simulations is performed for Hs using different wave buoy data available in the study region for the winter period of 2019. In addition, one-dimensional wave spectra measured by an NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) wave buoy are compared with the WAM (Wave Advanced Modeling) modelled 1d spectra showing a good correlation. Accounting for ocean currents improves the quality of the simulated results, which is more realistic than only considering waves.

Coupling Ocean Currents and Waves with Wind Stress over the Gulf Stream

This study provides the first detailed analysis of oceanic and atmospheric responses to the current-stress, wave-stress, and wave-current-stress interactions around the Gulf Stream using a high-resolution three-way coupled regional modeling system. In general, our results highlight the substantial impact of coupling currents and/or waves with wind stress on the air–sea fluxes over the Gulf Stream. The stress and the curl of the stress are crucial to mixed-layer energy budgets and sea surface temperature. In the wave-current-stress coupled experiment, wind stress increased by 15% over the Gulf Stream. Alternating positive and negative bands of changes of Ekman-related vertical velocity appeared in response to the changes of the wind stress curl along the Gulf Stream, with magnitudes exceeding 0.3 m/day (the 95th percentile). The response of wind stress and its curl to the wave-current-stress coupling was not a linear combination of responses to the wave-stress coupling and the current-stress coupling because the ocean and wave induced changes in the atmosphere showed substantial feedback on the ocean. Changes of a latent heat flux in excess of 20 W/m2 and a sensible heat flux in excess of 5 W/m2 were found over the Gulf Stream in all coupled experiments. Sensitivity tests show that sea surface temperature (SST) induced difference of air–sea humidity is a major contributor to latent heat flux (LHF) change. Validation is challenging because most satellite observations lack the spatial resolution to resolve the current-induced changes in wind stress curls and heat fluxes. Scatterometer observations can be used to examine the changes in wind stress across the Gulf Stream. The conversion of model data to equivalent neutral winds is highly dependent on the physics considered in the air–sea turbulent fluxes, as well as air–sea temperature differences. This sensitivity is shown to be large enough that satellite observations of winds can be used to test the flux parameterizations in coupled models.

Trapping and instability of directional gravity waves in localized water currents

The influence of localized water currents on the nonlinear dynamics and stability of large amplitude, statistically distributed gravity waves is investigated theoretically and numerically by means of an evolution equation for a Wigner function governing the spectrum of waves. It is shown that water waves propagating in the opposite direction of a localized current channel can be trapped in the channel, which can lead to the amplification of the wave intensity. Under certain conditions the wave intensity can be further localized due to a self-focusing (Benjamin-Feir) instability. The localized amplification of the wave intensity may increase the probability of extreme events in the form of freak waves, which have been observed in connection with ocean currents.