Time-scale dependence of solar wind-based regression models of ionospheric electrodynamics

The solar wind influence on geospace can be described as the sum of a directly driven component, or dayside reconnection, and an unloading component, associated with the release of magnetic energy via nightside reconnection. The two processes are poorly correlated on short time scales, but exactly equal when averaged over long time windows. Because of this peculiar property, regression models of ionospheric electrodynamics that are based on solar wind data are time scale specific: Models derived from 1 min resolution data will be different from models derived from hourly, daily, or monthly data. We explain and quantify this effect on simple linear regression models of various geomagnetic indices. We also derive a time scale-dependent correction factor that can be used with the Average Magnetic field and Polar current System model. Finally, we show how absolute estimates of the nightside reconnection rate can be calculated from solar wind measurements and geomagnetic indices.

North-South Asymmetry in the Geographic Location of Auroral Substorms correlated with Ionospheric Effects

Energetic particles of magnetospheric origin constantly strike the Earth’s upper atmosphere in the polar regions, producing optical emissions known as the aurora. The most spectacular auroral displays are associated with recurrent events called magnetospheric substorms (aka auroral substorms). Substorms are initiated in the nightside magnetosphere on closed magnetic field lines. As a consequence, it is generally thought that auroral substorms should occur in both hemispheres on the same field line (i.e., magnetically conjugated). However, such a hypothesis has not been verified statistically. Here, by analyzing 2659 auroral substorms acquired by the Ultraviolet Imager on board the NASA satellite “Polar”, we have discovered surprising evidence that the averaged location for substorm onsets is not conjugate but shows a geographic preference that cannot be easily explained by current substorm theories. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) the auroral substorms occur most frequently in Churchill, Canada (~90°W) and Khatanga, Siberia (~100°E), up to three times as often as in Iceland (~22°W). In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), substorms occur more frequently over a location in the Antarctic ocean (~120°E), up to ~4 times more than over the Antarctic Continent. Such a large difference in the longitudinal distribution of north and south onset defies the common belief that substorms in the NH and SH should be magnetically conjugated. A further analysis indicates that these substorm events occurred more frequently when more of the ionosphere was dark. These geographic areas also coincide with regions where the Earth’s magnetic field is largest. These facts suggest that auroral substorms occur more frequently, and perhaps more intensely, when the ionospheric conductivity is lower. With much of the magnetotail energy coming from the solar wind through merging of the interplanetary and Earth’s magnetic field, it is generally thought that the occurrence of substorms is externally controlled by the solar wind and plasma instability in the magnetotail. The present study results provide a strong argument that the ionosphere plays a more active role in the occurrence of substorms.

Realistic Worst Case for a Severe Space Weather Event Driven by a Fast Solar Wind Stream

Satellite charging is one of the most important risks for satellites on orbit. Satellite charging can lead to an electrostatic discharge resulting in component damage, phantom commands, and loss of service and in exceptional cases total satellite loss. Here we construct a realistic worst case for a fast solar wind stream event lasting 5 days or more and use a physical model to calculate the maximum electron flux greater than 2 MeV for geostationary orbit. We find that the flux tends toward a value of 106 cm-2·s-1·sr-1 after 5 days and remains high for another 5 days. The resulting flux is comparable to a 1 in 150-year event found from an independent statistical analysis of electron data. Approximately 2.5 mm of Al shielding would be required to reduce the internal charging current to below the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-recommended guidelines, much more than is currently used. Thus, we would expect many satellites to report electrostatic discharge anomalies during such an event with a strong likelihood of service outage and total satellite loss. We conclude that satellites at geostationary orbit are more likely to be at risk from fast solar wind stream event than a Carrington-type storm.

The Earth's Magnetosphere: A Systems Science Overview and Assessment

A systems science examination of the Earth's fully interconnected dynamic magnetosphere is presented. Here the magnetospheric system (a.k.a. the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system) is considered to be comprised of 14 interconnected subsystems, where each subsystem is a characteristic particle population: 12 of those particle populations are plasmas and two (the atmosphere and the hydrogen geocorona) are neutrals. For the magnetospheric system, an assessment is made of the applicability of several system descriptors, such as adaptive, nonlinear, dissipative, interdependent, open, irreversible, and complex. The 14 subsystems of the magnetospheric system are cataloged and described, and the various types of magnetospheric waves that couple the behaviors of the subsystems to each other are explained. This yields a roadmap of the connectivity of the magnetospheric system. Various forms of magnetospheric activity beyond geomagnetic activity are reviewed, and four examples of emergent phenomena in the Earth's magnetosphere are presented. Prior systems science investigations of the solar-wind-driven magnetospheric system are discussed: up to the present these investigations have not accounted for the full interconnectedness of the system. This overview and assessment of the Earth's magnetosphere hopes to facilitate (1) future global systems science studies that involve the entire interconnected magnetospheric system with its diverse time and spatial scales and (2) connections of magnetospheric systems science with the broader Earth systems science.

What effect do substorms have on the content of the radiation belts?

Substorms are fundamental and dynamic processes in the magnetosphere, converting captured solar wind magnetic energy into plasma energy. These substorms have been suggested to be a key driver of energetic electron enhancements in the outer radiation belts. Substorms inject a keV "seed" population into the inner magnetosphere which is subsequently energized through wave-particle interactions up to relativistic energies; however, the extent to which substorms enhance the radiation belts, either directly or indirectly, has never before been quantified. In this study, we examine increases and decreases in the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC) following substorms and geomagnetically quiet intervals. Our results show that the radiation belts are inherently lossy, shown by a negative median change in TRBEC at all intervals following substorms and quiet intervals. However, there are up to 3 times as many increases in TRBEC following substorm intervals. There is a lag of 1-3 days between the substorm or quiet intervals and their greatest effect on radiation belt content, shown in the difference between the occurrence of increases and losses in TRBEC following substorms and quiet intervals, the mean change in TRBEC following substorms or quiet intervals, and the cross correlation between SuperMAG AL (SML) and TRBEC. However, there is a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of increases and decreases in TRBEC up to a lag of 6 days. Increases in radiation belt content show a significant correlation with SML and SYM-H, but decreases in the radiation belt show no apparent link with magnetospheric activity levels.

Magnetosphere sawtooth oscillations induced by ionospheric outflow

The sawtooth mode of convection of Earth's magnetosphere is a 2- to 4-hour planetary-scale oscillation powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere (SW-M-I) interaction. Using global simulations of geospace, we have shown that ionospheric O(+) outflows can generate sawtooth oscillations. As the outflowing ions fill the inner magnetosphere, their pressure distends the nightside magnetic field. When the outflow fluence exceeds a threshold, magnetic field tension cannot confine the accumulating fluid; an O(+)-rich plasmoid is ejected, and the field dipolarizes. Below the threshold, the magnetosphere undergoes quasi-steady convection. Repetition and the sawtooth period are controlled by the strength of the SW-M-I interaction, which regulates the outflow fluence.

Application of computational mechanics to the analysis of natural data: an example in geomagnetism

We discuss how the ideal formalism of computational mechanics can be adapted to apply to a noninfinite series of corrupted and correlated data, that is typical of most observed natural time series. Specifically, a simple filter that removes the corruption that creates rare unphysical causal states is demonstrated, and the concept of effective soficity is introduced. We believe that computational mechanics cannot be applied to a noisy and finite data series without invoking an argument based upon effective soficity. A related distinction between noise and unresolved structure is also defined: Noise can only be eliminated by increasing the length of the time series, whereas the resolution of previously unresolved structure only requires the finite memory of the analysis to be increased. The benefits of these concepts are demonstrated in a simulated times series by (a) the effective elimination of white noise corruption from a periodic signal using the expletive filter and (b) the appearance of an effectively sofic region in the statistical complexity of a biased Poisson switch time series that is insensitive to changes in the word length (memory) used in the analysis. The new algorithm is then applied to an analysis of a real geomagnetic time series measured at Halley, Antarctica. Two principal components in the structure are detected that are interpreted as the diurnal variation due to the rotation of the Earth-based station under an electrical current pattern that is fixed with respect to the Sun-Earth axis and the random occurrence of a signature likely to be that of the magnetic substorm. In conclusion, some useful terminology for the discussion of model construction in general is introduced.

Modeling substorm dynamics of the magnetosphere: from self-organization and self-organized criticality to nonequilibrium phase transitions

Earth's magnetosphere during substorms exhibits a number of characteristic features such as the signatures of low effective dimension, hysteresis, and power-law spectra of fluctuations on different scales. The largest substorm phenomena are in reasonable agreement with low-dimensional magnetospheric models and in particular those of inverse bifurcation. However, deviations from the low-dimensional picture are also quite considerable, making the nonequilibrium phase transition more appropriate as a dynamical analog of the substorm activity. On the other hand, the multiscale magnetospheric dynamics cannot be limited to the features of self-organized criticality (SOC), which is based on a class of mathematical analogs of sandpiles. Like real sandpiles, during substorms the magnetosphere demonstrates features, that are distinct from SOC and are closer to those of conventional phase transitions. While the multiscale substorm activity resembles second-order phase transitions, the largest substorm avalanches are shown to reveal the features of first-order nonequilibrium transitions including hysteresis phenomena and a global structure of the type of a temperature-pressure-density diagram. Moreover, this diagram allows one to find a critical exponent, that reflects the multiscale aspect of the substorm activity, different from the power-law frequency and scale spectra of autonomous systems, although quite consistent with second-order phase transitions. In contrast to SOC exponents, this exponent relates input and output parameters of the magnetosphere. Using an analogy to the dynamical Ising model in the mean-field approximation, we show the connection between the data-derived exponent of nonequilibrium transitions in the magnetosphere and the standard critical exponent beta of equilibrium second-order phase transitions.