Large slip, long duration, and moderate shaking of the Nicaragua 1992 tsunami earthquake caused by low near-trench rock rigidity

Large earthquake ruptures propagating up to areas close to subduction trenches are infrequent, but when they occur, they heavily displace the ocean seafloor originating destructive tsunamis. The current paradigm is that the large seafloor deformation is caused by local factors reducing friction and increasing megathrust fault slip, or prompting the activation of ancillary faults or energy sources. As alternative to site-specific models, it has been proposed that large shallow slip could result from depth-dependent rock rigidity variations. To confront both hypotheses, here, we map elastic rock properties across the rupture zone of the M _S7.0-M _W7.7 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake to estimate a property-compatible finite fault solution. The obtained self-consistent model accounts for trenchward increasing slip, constrains stress drop, and explains key tsunami earthquake characteristics such as long duration, high-frequency depletion, and magnitude discrepancy. The confirmation that these characteristics are all intrinsic attributes of shallow rupture opens new possibilities to improve tsunami hazard assessment.

Upper-plate rigidity determines depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes

Seismological data provide evidence of a depth-dependent rupture behaviour of earthquakes occurring at the megathrust fault of subduction zones, also known as megathrust earthquakes¹. Relative to deeper events of similar magnitude, shallow earthquake ruptures have larger slip and longer duration, radiate energy that is depleted in high frequencies and have a larger discrepancy between their surface-wave and moment magnitudes^1-3. These source properties make them prone to generating devastating tsunamis without clear warning signs. The depth-dependent rupture behaviour is usually attributed to variations in fault mechanics^4-7. Conceptual models, however, have so far failed to identify the fundamental physical causes of the contrasting observations and do not provide a quantitative framework with which to predict and link them. Here we demonstrate that the observed differences do not require changes in fault mechanics. We use compressional-wave velocity models from worldwide subduction zones to show that their common underlying cause is a systematic depth variation of the rigidity at the lower part of the upper plate - the rock body overriding the megathrust fault, which deforms by dynamic stress transfer during co-seismic slip. Combining realistic elastic properties with accurate estimates of earthquake focal depth enables us to predict the amount of co-seismic slip (the fault motion at the instant of the earthquake), provides unambiguous estimations of magnitude and offers the potential for early tsunami warnings.

Variation of interplate fault zone properties with depth in the japan subduction zone

The depth dependence of physical properties along the Japan subduction zone interface was explored using teleseismic recordings of earthquake signals. Broadband body waves were inverted to determine the duration of rupture and source depth for 40 interplate thrust earthquakes located offshore of Honshu between 1989 and 1995. After scaling for differences in seismic moment, there is a systematic decrease in rupture duration with increasing depth along the subducting plate interface. This indicates increases in rupture velocity or stress drop with depth, likely related to variation in rigidity of sediments on the megathrust.