Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador

Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.

Heavy metal contents, mobility and origin in agricultural topsoils of the Galápagos Islands

While the Galápagos Islands have been renowned for their unique flora and fauna since the time of Charles Darwin, the soils of the isolated island chain have been mostly overlooked and little information on their heavy metal contents is available. The aim of this study was therefore to examine the total heavy metal (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, U, Zn) contents of soils from the agricultural areas on islands Isabela, Santa Cruz and San Cristóbal, and identify trends with duration of exposure to weathering processes. Additionally, the mobility of these elements was assessed using ammonium nitrate extraction. In general, levels of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni and Zn were high compared to other world locations, while Pb levels were low and U levels were similar. Ni, Co, Cr, and to a lesser extent Pb and U tended to accumulate with increasing weathering duration. Soil concentrations of Cd, Zn, Cu, and possibly Pb and U, may have been influenced by use of agrochemicals, particularly on Santa Cruz Island. Mobility of Cd displayed an increasing trend with soil age, while Ni mobility decreased. Many soils had total contents of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni and Zn above threshold values indicating possible ecological or health risks. Systematic examination of trace element contents in soils from pristine national park areas would further assist in the delineation of background levels and the development of soil quality standards to ensure crop quality, animal and human health on this unique island chain.