On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models

Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process.

Viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes

A sequence of large interplate earthquakes from 1952 to 1965 along the Aleutian arc and Kurile-Kamchatka trench released accumulated stresses along nearly the entire northern portion of the Pacific Plate boundary. The postseismic stress evolution across the northern Pacific and Arctic basins, calculated from a viscoelastic coupling model with an asthenospheric viscosity of 5 x 10(17) pascal seconds, is consistent with triggering of oceanic intraplate earthquakes, temporal patterns in seismicity at remote plate boundaries, and space-based geodetic measurements of anomalous velocity over an area 7000 by 7000 kilometers square during the 30-year period after the sequence.