Stochastic Analysis of Tsunami Hazard of the 1945 Makran Subduction Zone Mw 8.1–8.3 Earthquakes

Historical records of major earthquakes in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) indicate high potential tsunami hazards for coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. There are fast-growing and populous cities and ports that are economically important, such as Chabahar (Iran), Gwadar (Pakistan), Muscat (Oman), and Mumbai (India). In this study, we assess the tsunami hazard of the 1945 MSZ event (fatalities ≈300 people) using stochastic earthquake rupture models of Mw 8.1–8.3 by considering uncertainties related to rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity. To quantify the uncertainty of earthquake source characteristics in tsunami hazard analysis, 1000 stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated via a stochastic source modeling approach. There are main objectives of this study: (1) developing stochastic earthquake slip models for the MSZ, (2) comparing results of the simulation with the existing observations of the 1945 event, and (3) evaluating the effect of uncertain fault geometry and earthquake slip based on simulated near-shore wave profiles. The 1945 Makran earthquake is focused upon by comparing model predictions with existing observations, consisting of far-field tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges in Karachi and Mumbai and coseismic deformation along the Pakistani coast. The results identify the source model that matches the existing observations of the 1945 Makran event best among the stochastic sources. The length, width, mean slip, and maximum slip of the identified source model are 270 km, 130 km, 2.9 m, and 19.3 m, respectively. Moreover, the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami heights along the coastline to the location of a large-slip area is highlighted. The maximum heights of the tsunami and coseismic deformation results at Ormara are in the range of 0.3–7.0 m and −2.7 to 1.1 m, respectively, for the 1000 stochastic source models.

Geodynamic subduction models constrained by deep earthquakes beneath the Japan Sea and eastern China

Details of Pacific plate subduction under the Japan Sea and associated current seismicity remain challenging. Seismic tomography reveals a continuous slab dipping at ~30° down to ~600 km, and earthquake mechanisms point to down-dip compression. Further, the slab is lying at the 660-km discontinuity, and this zone is aseismic. We suggest that this pattern results from the slab's negative thermal buoyancy, resistance of the viscous lower mantle, and buoyancy forces associated with the phase transitions at 410 km and 660 km. Our model comprises an ageing subducting plate, nonlinear rheology and major phase transitions. The model explains the observed low dip angle of the slab and predicts a detailed stress pattern related to bending down to 450 km, followed by unbending as the slab is laid flat upon the 660 km boundary. Remarkably, in the bending/unbending regions, down-dip compression occurs close to the slab top/bottom, respectively. As only down-dip compression is observed, we argue that the earthquakes are mapping the top and bottom of the slab. The absence of seismicity in the flat-lying slab is explained by significantly lower stresses and higher temperatures. With this new knowledge, increasingly accurate seismic locations will considerably improve images of finite-extent slab geometry.

Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model

Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interfaces of subduction zones host Earth's largest earthquakes and are likely the only faults capable of magnitude 9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry-which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial extent and ultimately the size of subduction zone earthquakes-is incomplete. We calculated the three-dimensional geometries of all seismically active global subduction zones. The resulting model, called Slab2, provides a uniform geometrical analysis of all currently subducting slabs.

Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra

A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers inland near the most populous coastal cities. Our models of historical and future tsunamis confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran communities to tsunami surges. Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004.

The Size and Duration of the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake from Far-Field Static Offsets

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake produced static offsets at continuously operating GPS stations at distances of up to 4500 kilometers from the epicenter. We used these displacements to model the earthquake and include consideration of the Earth's shape and depth-varying rigidity. The results imply that the average slip was >5 meters along the full length of the rupture, including the approximately 650-kilometer-long Andaman segment. Comparison of the source derived from the far-field static offsets with seismically derived estimates suggests that 25 to 35% of the total moment release occurred at periods greater than 1 hour. Taking into consideration the strong dip dependence of moment estimates, the magnitude of the earthquake did not exceed Mw = 9.2.

Rupture Process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake initiated slowly, with small slip and a slow rupture speed for the first 40 to 60 seconds. Then the rupture expanded at a speed of about 2.5 kilometers per second toward the north northwest, extending 1200 to 1300 kilometers along the Andaman trough. Peak displacements reached approximately 15 meters along a 600-kilometer segment of the plate boundary offshore of northwestern Sumatra and the southern Nicobar islands. Slip was less in the northern 400 to 500 kilometers of the aftershock zone, and at least some slip in that region may have occurred on a time scale beyond the seismic band.

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.

Large trench-parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones

We demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), whereas regions with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic. These observations suggest that, over time scales up to at least 1 million years, spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore-arc. The correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench-parellel variations in fore-arc topography, gravity, and seismogenic behavior.

Seismic detection of rigid zones at the top of the core

Data from earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji region recorded at a seismic array in northern Australia show evidence for rigid zones at the top of the outer core. The ScP waveforms can be modeled by thin (0.12 to 0.18 kilometer) zones of molten iron mixed with solid material with a small, but positive, S-wave velocity (0.6 to 0.8 kilometer per second) that enables the propagation of S-waves in the outermost core. The zones may be topographic highs of the core-mantle boundary filled by light core sediments and might be important for variation of Earth's nutation and for convection of the outer core.