A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Long-Term Trends and Spatiotemporal Variations in Atmospheric XCH4 over China Utilizing Satellite Observations

As the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2), methane not only plays an important role in global and regional photochemical reactions, but also has an important impact on energy balance and climate change. To explore the long-term trends and spatiotemporal variation of methane concentration over China, we verified the accuracy of the column-averaged, dry air-mixing ratio of CH4 (abbreviated as XCH4 hereafter) merged by SCIAMACHY and GOSAT products, utilizing the data of six surface observation stations in China and the surrounding areas. The root mean square error (RMSE) was mostly less than 2.5%, and the correlation coefficients (r) were 0.77, 0.84, 0.66, 0.42, 0.62 and 0.75. Furthermore, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation patterns of the XCH4 concentration over China from 2003 to 2020. The results showed that the XCH4 concentration had an increasing trend over China from 2003 to 2020; the average growth rate was 6.64 ppb·a−1, and the value range of the increase rate was from 4.66 ppb·a−1 to 8.46 ppb·a−1. The lowest XCH4 concentration was located over Tibet (1764.03 ppb), and the high values were located in the Sichuan Basin, Central China (Hunan, Hubei, and Henan) and East China (Anhui and Jiangxi) (1825–1845 ppb). The XCH4 concentration was higher in autumn and summer, low in winter and spring, and had obvious seasonal variations. Human factors such as population density, GDP and energy consumption have a significant impact on the XCH4 concentration over China.

Source apportionment of carbon monoxide over India: a quantitative analysis using MOZART-4

MOZART-4 chemistry transport model has been used to examine the contribution of carbon monoxide (CO) from different source regions/types by tagging their emissions in model simulations. These simulations are made using tagged tracer approach to estimate the relative contribution of different geographical regions and different emission sources, such as anthropogenic or biomass burning to the CO concentration at the surface, in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and in the free troposphere (FT) over the Indian sub-continent. The CO budget analyses highlight the significant contribution of the Indian emissions on surface CO and influence of chemical production on the free tropospheric CO concentration. The total CO mixing ratio is estimated as 263 ± 139 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for surface, 177 ± 71 ppbv for PBL, and 112 ± 14 ppbv for FT. The percentage contributions of primary sources are found to be 80%, 68%, and 53% at the surface, in the PBL, and in the FT, respectively. The sub-regional analysis of India shows that anthropogenic and photochemical processes contribute 41-75% and 15-46% CO, respectively, at the surface. Maximum percentage contribution of anthropogenic CO is observed over Indo-Gangetic Plain and Eastern India (75%). CO contribution from local anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions and transported from other global source regions are analyzed over the Indian region at the surface, in the PBL, and in the FT. The local anthropogenic sources contribute largest to the surface CO over India with 108 ppbv, followed by China with 98 ppbv, Europe with 55 ppbv, North America (NA) with 46 ppbv, and South-east Asia (SEA) and Middle East (ME) with 23 ppbv each. India's PBL (FT) CO is mostly influenced by China's anthropogenic emissions with 12 ppbv (8 ppbv) followed by SEA with 7 ppbv (6 ppbv). Surface biomass burning CO over India (6 ppbv) is much lower than in other regions such as SEA (32 ppbv), Africa (24 ppbv), and South America (11 ppbv). In the PBL (FT), SEA and Africa's BB emissions show major impact on CO over India with 6 ppbv (5 ppbv) and 5 ppbv (4 ppbv), respectively.

Clear-Sky Shortwave Downward Flux at the Earth's Surface: Ground-Based Data vs. Satellite-Based Data

The radiative flux data and other meteorological data in the BSRN archive start from 1992, but the RadFlux data, the clear-sky radiative fluxes at the BSRN sites derived through regression analyses of actually observed clear-sky fluxes, did not come into existence until the early 2000s, and at first, they were limited to the 7 NOAA SURFRAD and 4 DOE ARM sites, a subset of the BSRN sites. Recently, the RadFlux algorithm was applied more extensively to the BSRN sites for the production of clear-sky ground-based fluxes. At the time of this writing, there are 7119 site-months of clear-sky fluxes at 42 BSRN sites spanning the time from 1992 to late 2017. These data provide an unprecedented opportunity to validate the satellite-based clear-sky fluxes. In this paper, the GEWEX SRB GSW(V3.0) shortwave downward fluxes spanning 24.5 years from 1983-07 to 2007-12, the CERES SYN1deg(Ed4A) and EBAF(Ed4.0) shortwave fluxes spanning 2000-03 to mid-2017 are compared with their RadFlux counterparts on the hourly, 3-hourly, daily and monthly time scales. All the three datasets show reasonable agreement with their ground-based counterparts. Comparison of the satellite-based surface shortwave clear-sky radiative fluxes to the BSRN RadFlux analysis shows negative biases. Further analysis shows that the satellite-based atmosphere contains greater aerosol optical paths as well as more precipitable water than RadFlux analysis estimates.

Origin and Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Aerosol: Production and Consumption Perspectives

Air pollution, a threat to air quality and human health, has attracted ever-increasing attention in recent years. In addition to having local influence, air pollutants can also travel the globe via atmospheric circulation and international trade. Black carbon (BC), emitted from incomplete combustion, is a unique but representative particulate pollutant. This study tracked down the BC aerosol and its direct radiative forcing to the emission sources and final consumers using the global chemical transport model (MOZART-4), the rapid radiative transfer model for general circulation simulations (RRTM), and a multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO). BC was physically transported (i.e., atmospheric transport) from western to eastern countries in the midlatitude westerlies, but its magnitude is near an order of magnitude higher if the virtual flow embodied in international trade is considered. The transboundary effects on East and South Asia by other regions increased from about 3% (physical transport only) to 10% when considering both physical and virtual transport. The influence efficiency on East Asia was also large because of the comparatively large emission intensity and emission-intensive exports (e.g., machinery and equipment). The radiative forcing in Africa imposed by consumption from Europe, North America, and East Asia (0.01 Wm^-2) was even larger than the total forcing in North America. Understanding the supply chain and incorporating both atmospheric and virtual transport may improve multilateral cooperation on air pollutant mitigation both domestically and internationally.

How light absorbing properties of organic aerosol modify the Asian summer monsoon rainfall?

Light absorbing aerosols not only contribute to Earth's radiative balance but also influence regional climate by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. Following recent suggestions that organic aerosols (OAs) absorb substantial amount of solar radiation, we examine the role of light absorbing properties of OA on Asian summer monsoon rainfall redistribution using observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiment. Results suggest that the enhanced light absorption by OA in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are associated with the advance of the Indian summer monsoon in May and the southward shift of East Asian summer monsoon rain band in June. The rainfall redistribution in May is induced by elevated orographic effect with a warm-core upper-level anticyclone and surface warming of 1-2°C over the Tibetan Plateau whereas that of the East Asian summer monsoon in June is formed by stable conditions associated with surface cooling and atmospheric warming around 30°N.

Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has advantages of simplicity and expediency, but incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn-210Pb-7Be chemical tracer simulations offline in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25° ×0.3125° (≈25 km) and 2° ×2.5° (≈200 km) resolutions, and on-line in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈25 km) and c48 (≈200 km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 hours and remapped to 0.25° ×0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25° ×0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20% relative to the GEOS-5 c360 on-line simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3-hour meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from cubed-sphere to rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25°×0.3125° to 2°×2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially as well as temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40% in surface air relative to the on-line c360 simulations, and underestimated by up to 40% in the upper troposphere, while the tropospheric lifetimes of 210Pb and 7Be against aerosol deposition are affected by 5-10%. The lost vertical transport in the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem simulation can be partly restored by re-computing the convective mass fluxes at the appropriate resolution to replace the archived convective mass fluxes, and by correcting for bias 20 in spatial averaging of boundary layer mixing depths.

Role of climate anomalies on decadal variation in the occurrence of wintertime haze in the Yangtze River Delta, China

The wintertime haze day (HD) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China shows a significant upward trend during the past decades due to the rapid industrialization and urbanization. Besides the enhanced anthropogenic emission, climate change also plays the important role in the long term HD variations. In this study, the significant decadal variation of wintertime HD during the period 1960-2012 in YRD is examined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, featured as less HD occurrence before 1980 and more occurrence after 2000. The numerical simulations by the global transport and chemical model (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, MOZART) with the same emission inventory suggest 8.4% enhancement of wintertime PM_2.5 (particulate matter with the equivalent diameter of air dynamics less than or equal to 2.5μm) mass concentration in YRD during 2001-2009 compared with that during 1971-1979 attributed to meteorological changes, indicating the significant effect of climate anomaly on the decadal variations of wintertime HD. Through the composite analysis on the atmospheric dynamical and thermal conditions based on the reanalysis data, the faster warming in the lower and middle troposphere over the continent in the recent decade is suggested to be important for the out-of-phase decadal HD variation in YRD. The thermal anomaly not only reverses the zonal thermal difference of land-sea to stimulate the anomalous southerlies over YRD leading to reduced prevailing north wind in winter, but also develops the deep inversion below the mid-troposphere to enhance the atmospheric stability. As a result, more frequent and persistent air stagnations in recent decade are expected for the reduction of atmospheric horizontal dispersion and vertical diffusion capacity leading to more occurrence of wintertime HD in YRD.

Quantifying greenhouse-gas emissions from atmospheric measurements: a critical reality check for climate legislation

Emissions reduction legislation relies upon 'bottom-up' accounting of industrial and biogenic greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions at their sources. Yet, even for relatively well-constrained industrial GHGs, global emissions based on 'top-down' methods that use atmospheric measurements often agree poorly with the reported bottom-up emissions. For emissions reduction legislation to be effective, it is essential that these discrepancies be resolved. Because emissions are regulated nationally or regionally, not globally, top-down estimates must also be determined at these scales. High-frequency atmospheric GHG measurements at well-chosen station locations record 'pollution events' above the background values that result from regional emissions. By combining such measurements with inverse methods and atmospheric transport and chemistry models, it is possible to map and quantify regional emissions. Even with the sparse current network of measurement stations and current inverse-modelling techniques, it is possible to rival the accuracies of regional 'bottom-up' emission estimates for some GHGs. But meeting the verification goals of emissions reduction legislation will require major increases in the density and types of atmospheric observations, as well as expanded inverse-modelling capabilities. The cost of this effort would be minor when compared with current investments in carbon-equivalent trading, and would reduce the volatility of that market and increase investment in emissions reduction.