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Østerstrøm FF, Klobas JE, Kennedy RP, Cadoux A, Wilmouth DM. Sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to the latitude, season, and halogen content of a contemporary explosive volcanic eruption. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6457. [PMID: 37081043 PMCID: PMC10119174 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32574-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 04/22/2023] Open
Abstract
We present a systematic evaluation of the perturbation to the stratosphere from an explosive volcanic eruption injecting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, as a function of latitude, season, and injection gas halogen content in a chemistry-climate state representative of the present day (modeled as year 2025). Enhancements in aerosol surface area density and decreases in stratospheric ozone are observed for a period of years following all modeled scenarios, with volcanic eruptions near the equator impacting both hemispheres relatively equally, and eruptions at higher latitudes reducing the thickness of the ozone layer more substantially in the hemisphere of the eruption. Our simulations reveal that there that are significant seasonal differences when comparing the stratospheric impact of a volcanic eruption occurring in summer versus winter, and this holds true regardless of whether volcanic halogen gases (Cl, Br) are co-injected with sulfur dioxide. If an explosive halogen-rich eruption were to occur, there would be substantial ozone losses in both hemispheres, regardless of latitude or season, with recovery potentially exceeding 4 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freja F Østerstrøm
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
- Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - J Eric Klobas
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| | - Robert P Kennedy
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Anita Cadoux
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - David M Wilmouth
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
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Anderson JG, Weisenstein DK, Bowman KP, Homeyer CR, Smith JB, Wilmouth DM, Sayres DS, Klobas JE, Leroy SS, Dykema JA, Wofsy SC. Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:E4905-E4913. [PMID: 28584119 PMCID: PMC5488921 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1619318114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4.
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Affiliation(s)
- James G Anderson
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Debra K Weisenstein
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Kenneth P Bowman
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843
| | | | - Jessica B Smith
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - David M Wilmouth
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - David S Sayres
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - J Eric Klobas
- Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Stephen S Leroy
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - John A Dykema
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
| | - Steven C Wofsy
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
- Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
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Impact of Coupled NOx/Aerosol Aircraft Emissions on Ozone Photochemistry and Radiative Forcing. ATMOSPHERE 2015. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos6060751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Fleming EL, Jackman CH, Weisenstein DK, Ko MKW. The impact of interannual variability on multidecadal total ozone simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Abstract
Evidence of mid-latitude ozone depletion and proof that the Antarctic ozone hole was caused by humans spurred policy makers from the late 1980s onwards to ratify the Montreal Protocol and subsequent treaties, legislating for reduced production of ozone-depleting substances. The case of anthropogenic ozone loss has often been cited since as a success story of international agreements in the regulation of environmental pollution. Although recent data suggest that total column ozone abundances have at least not decreased over the past eight years for most of the world, it is still uncertain whether this improvement is actually attributable to the observed decline in the amount of ozone-depleting substances in the Earth's atmosphere. The high natural variability in ozone abundances, due in part to the solar cycle as well as changes in transport and temperature, could override the relatively small changes expected from the recent decrease in ozone-depleting substances. Whatever the benefits of the Montreal agreement, recovery of ozone is likely to occur in a different atmospheric environment, with changes expected in atmospheric transport, temperature and important trace gases. It is therefore unlikely that ozone will stabilize at levels observed before 1980, when a decline in ozone concentrations was first observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth C Weatherhead
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, Campus Box 216, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA.
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Ross MN, Danilin MY, Weisenstein DK, Ko MKW. Ozone depletion caused by NO and H2O emissions from hydrazine-fueled rockets. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2004. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jd004370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- M. N. Ross
- Aerospace Corporation; Los Angeles California USA
| | - M. Y. Danilin
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
| | - D. K. Weisenstein
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
| | - M. K. W. Ko
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
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Weisenstein DK. Separating chemistry and transport effects in two-dimensional models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2004. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jd004744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Rinsland CP. Post-Mount Pinatubo eruption ground-based infrared stratospheric column measurements of HNO3, NO, and NO2and their comparison with model calculations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Danilin MY, Ko MKW, Bevilacqua RM, Lyjak LV, Froidevaux L, Santee ML, Zawodny JM, Hoppel KW, Richard EC, Spackman JR, Weinstock EM, Herman RL, McKinney KA, Wennberg PO, Eisele FL, Stimpfle RM, Scott CJ, Elkins JW, Bui TV. Comparison of ER-2 aircraft and POAM III, MLS, and SAGE II satellite measurements during SOLVE using traditional correlative analysis and trajectory hunting technique. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd000781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M. Y. Danilin
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
| | - M. K. W. Ko
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
| | | | - L. V. Lyjak
- National Center for Atmospheric Research; Boulder Colorado USA
| | | | - M. L. Santee
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Pasadena California USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - R. L. Herman
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Pasadena California USA
| | - K. A. McKinney
- California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
| | - P. O. Wennberg
- California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
| | - F. L. Eisele
- National Center for Atmospheric Research; Boulder Colorado USA
- Georgia Institute of Technology; Atlanta Georgia USA
| | | | - C. J. Scott
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.; Lexington Massachusetts USA
| | | | - T. V. Bui
- NASA Ames Research Center; Moffett Field California USA
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Timmreck C. Three-dimensional simulation of stratospheric background aerosol: First results of a multiannual general circulation model simulation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd000765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Danilin MY, Shia RL, Ko MKW, Weisenstein DK, Sze ND, Lamb JJ, Smith TW, Lohn PD, Prather MJ. Global stratospheric effects of the alumina emissions by solid-fueled rocket motors. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jd900022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Danilin MY, Ko MKW, Weisenstein DK. Global implications of ozone loss in a space shuttle wake. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900632] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kinnison DE, Connell PS, Rodriguez JM, Rotman DA, Considine DB, Tannahill J, Ramaroson R, Rasch PJ, Douglass AR, Baughcum SL, Coy L, Waugh DW, Kawa SR, Prather MJ. The Global Modeling Initiative assessment model: Application to high-speed civil transport perturbation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Pitari G, Mancini E, Bregman A, Rogers H, Sundet J, Grewe V, Dessens O. Sulphate particles from subsonic aviation: impact on upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1016/s1464-1917(01)00048-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Brock CA, Schröder F, Kärcher B, Petzold A, Busen R, Fiebig M. Ultrafine particle size distributions measured in aircraft exhaust plumes. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Natural and human-induced perturbations in the middle atmosphere: A short tutorial. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2000. [DOI: 10.1029/gm123p0007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register]
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Smyshlyaev SP, Geller MA, Yudin VA. Sensitivity of model assessments of high-speed civil transport effects on stratospheric ozone resulting from uncertainties in the NOxproduction from lightning. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd900820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Kiselev A, Karol I. Modeling of the tropospheric carbon monoxide distribution in the northern temperate latitudinal belt. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1016/s1465-9972(99)00006-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Smyshlyaev SP, Dvortsov VL, Geller MA, Yudin VA. A two-dimensional model with input parameters from a general circulation model: Ozone sensitivity to different formulations for the longitudinal temperature variation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/98jd02354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Shia RL, Ko MKW, Weisenstein DK, Scott C, Rodriguez J. Transport between the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere: Implications for ozone response to high-speed civil transport emissions. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/98jd01882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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