High summer background O3 levels in the desert of northwest China

Generally speaking, the precursors of ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds are very low in desert areas due to the lack of anthropogenic emissions and natural emissions, and thus O3 concentrations are relatively low. However, high summer background concentrations of about 100 µg/m3 or 60 ppb were found in the Alxa Desert in the highland of northwest China based on continuous summer observations from 2019 to 2021, which was higher than the most of natural background areas or clean areas in world for summer O3 background concentrations. The high O3 background concentrations were related to surface features and altitude. Heavy-intensity anthropogenic activity areas in desert areas can cause increased O3 concentrations or pollution, but also generated O3 depleting substances such as nitrous oxide, which eventually reduced the regional O3 baseline values. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) also had a dual effect on O3 generation, showing promotion at low concentrations and inhibition at high concentrations. In addition, sand-dust weather reduced O3 clearly, but O3 eventually stabilized around the background concentration values and did not vary with sand-dust particulate matter.

Changes in Ozone Chemical Sensitivity in the United States from 2007 to 2016

Anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the U.S. have declined substantially over the last decade, altering the NO_x-VOC chemistry and ozone (O₃) production characteristics of many areas. In this work we use multiple air quality analysis tools to assess how these large reductions in NO_x and VOC have affected O₃ production regimes across the U.S. between 2007 and 2016. We first compare observed and modeled evolution of NO_x-limited and NO_x-saturated O₃ formation regimes using a day-of-week (DOW) analysis. This comparison builds confidence in the model's ability to qualitatively capture O₃ changes due to chemistry and meteorology both within years and across periods of large emissions decreases. DOW analysis, however, cannot definitively differentiate between emissions and meteorology impacts. We therefore supplement this analysis with sensitivity calculations from CAMx-HDDM to characterize modeled shifts in O₃ formation chemistry between 2007 and 2016 in different regions of the U.S. We also conduct a more detailed investigation of the O₃ chemical behavior observed in Chicago and Detroit, two complex urban areas in the Midwest. Both the ambient and modeling data show that more locations across the U.S. have shifted towards NO_x-limited regimes between 2007 and 2016. The model-based HDDM sensitivity analysis shows only a few locations remaining NO_x-saturated on high-O₃ days in 2016 including portions of New York City, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Los Angeles. This work offers insights into the current state of O₃ production chemistry in large population centers across the U.S., as well as how O₃ chemistry in these areas may evolve in the future.

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃concentrations follow the general decreases in both NOx and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃photochemistry. The linear O₃-NO₂relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃with projected NOx emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NOx and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃with emissions suggest that O₃is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NOx sensitivity with time (NMOC/NOx ratio increase), increase in O₃production efficiency at lower NOx concentrations (higher O₃/NOy ratio), and the presence of natural NOx and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

IMPLICATIONS

This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃and precursors based on long term trends in U.S.

LOCATIONS

The results indicate that ground-level O₃concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NOx since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃and NO₂concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Meteorologically adjusted ground level ozone trends in southern Taiwan

Two methods were used to calculate the meteorologically adjusted ground level ozone trends in southern Taiwan. The first method utilized is a robust linear regression method. The second approach uses a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) method. The observations obtained from 16 monitoring stations were analyzed and divided into six groups by hierarchical divisive clustering procedure. The daily maximum 1 and 8 h ozone concentrations for each group are then calculated. The meteorologically adjusted trends obtained by linear regression and MLP methods are smaller than the unadjusted trends for all groups and average time. It indicts that the meteorological conditions in Taiwan tend to increase ambient ozone concentrations in recent years.

The exceedance patterns of air quality criteria: a case study of ozone and nitrogen dioxide in Seoul, Korea between 1990 and 2000

In this study, the environmental behavior of two major airborne pollutants, ozone and nitrogen dioxide, was investigated with respect to their exceedance patterns of air quality criteria. For this purpose, we used data sets collected from a total of 31 air quality monitoring stations dispersed across the Seoul metropolitan city between 1990 and 2000. In the case of NO(2), the frequency of hourly exceedance data sets exhibited little changes in the early 90s. However, it increased dramatically after 1995, probably in compliance with a rapid increase in the total number of automobiles. Likewise, the daily exceedance of O(3) in the early 90s was not significant, approaching 100 cases (except in 1994). However, its total quantity began to surpass 300 cases since around 1996. Comparison of those exceedance data was also made among spatially divided data groups. In the case of NO(2), the occurrence of exceedance data was dominated by the western part of the city in both magnitude and frequency. On the other hand, that for O(3) was characterized by notably strong occurrences in the eastern counterpart. The overall results of our analysis of the NO(2) and O(3) exceedance data sets indicate an inextricable linkage between the two pollutants in association with geographical and meteorological factors.

Increasing Ozone over the Atlantic Ocean

Ship-borne ozone (O3) measurements over the Atlantic Ocean during the period from 1977 to 2002 show that O3 trends in the northern mid-latitudes are small. In contrast, remarkably large O3 trends occur at low latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, where near-surface O3 has increased by up to a factor of 2. The likely cause is the substantial increase of anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) associated with energy use in Africa, which has added to NOx from biomass burning and natural sources.

Observations of ozone formation in power plant plumes and implications for ozone control strategies

Data taken in aircraft transects of emissions plumes from rural U.S. coal-fired power plants were used to confirm and quantify the nonlinear dependence of tropospheric ozone formation on plume NO(x) (NO plus NO(2)) concentration, which is determined by plant NO(x) emission rate and atmospheric dispersion. The ambient availability of reactive volatile organic compounds, principally biogenic isoprene, was also found to modulate ozone production rate and yield in these rural plumes. Differences of a factor of 2 or greater in plume ozone formation rates and yields as a function of NO(x) and volatile organic compound concentrations were consistently observed. These large differences suggest that consideration of power plant NO(x) emission rates and geographic locations in current and future U.S. ozone control strategies could substantially enhance the efficacy of NO(x) reductions from these sources.

Efficient regional ozone control strategies for the eastern United States

When environmental regulatory bodies formulate control plans, it is incumbent upon them to try to achieve the stated goals in an economically efficient manner. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is presently developing regulations to limit the influence of transported ozone on areas that are having difficulty meeting the ambient air quality standard. EPA has proposed stringent control measures for emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 22 states of the eastern US. The strategy would necessitate the use of selective catalytic reduction or similar high-performance technology on almost all major power plants in the region, as well as extensive controls on industrial sources. This paper suggests several alternative approaches that would achieve equal or better environmental improvement at lower cost. These include focusing control efforts on sources closer to the North-east Corridor, pushing controls on close-in sources to a higher level of technology performance, and relaxing the stringency of requirements for states remote from ozone problem areas. All the approaches examined are two to three times more cost-effective than EPA's proposed approach in the North-east Corridor.

METHODS FOR ATTRIBUTING AMBIENT AIR POLLUTANTS TO EMISSION SOURCES

▪ Abstract  Six methods for attributing ambient pollutants to emission sources are reviewed: emissions analysis, trend analysis, tracer studies, trajectory analysis, receptor modeling, and dispersion modeling. The ranges of applicability, types of information provided, limitations, performance capabilities, and areas of active research of the different methods are compared. For primary, nonreactive pollutants whose effects of concern occur on a global scale, an accounting of emissions rates by source type and location largely characterizes source contributions. For other pollutants or smaller spatial scales, accurate estimates of emissions are needed for identifying the emissions reduction potentials of possible control measures and as inputs to dispersion models. Emission levels are frequently known with factor-of-two accuracy or worse, and improved estimates are needed for dispersion modeling. The analysis of regional or urban-scale trends in emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations can provide qualitative information on source contributions, but quantitative results are limited by the confounding influence of variations in meteorology and uncertainties in the areas over which emissions affect concentrations. Tracer studies are useful for quantifying dispersion characteristics of plumes, qualitatively characterizing transport directions, and providing empirical data for evaluating trajectory and dispersion models. Data are usually temporally limited to a short study period, typically do not provide information on vertical pollutant distributions, and are most applicable to the transport of primary, nonreactive pollutants. Trajectory analyses are routinely used to estimate atmospheric transport directions. Trajectory errors of about 20% of travel distance are considered typical of the better models and data sets. Receptor models use measurements of ambient pollutant concentrations to quantify the contributions of different source types to primary particulate matter or volatile organic compounds, or to characterize source-region contributions to a single pollutant. Accuracy rates of ∼30% are often achieved when quantifying the contributions from different types of emission sources. Dispersion models are well-suited for estimating quantitative source-receptor relationships, as the effects of individual emission sources or source regions can be studied. Lagrangian and Gaussian dispersion models are computationally efficient and can simulate the transport of nonreactive primary or linear secondary species. Eulerian models are computationally intensive but lend themselves to the simulation of nonlinear chemistry. Careful evaluation of modeling accuracy is needed for a model application to fulfill its potential for source attribution. Accuracy can be evaluated through a combination of performance evaluation, sensitivity analysis, diagnostic evaluation, and corroborating analyses.

Modelling photochemical oxidant formation, transport, deposition and exposure of terrestrial ecosystems

The chemical processes responsible for production of photochemical oxidants within the troposphere have been the subject of laboratory and field study throughout the last three decades. During the same period, models to simulate the atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition of ozone (O(3)) from individual urban sources and from regions have been developed. The models differ greatly in the complexity of chemical schemes, in the underlying meteorology and in spatial and temporal resolution. Input information from land use, spatial and temporally disaggregated emission inventories and meteorology have all improved considerably in recent years and are not fully implemented in current models. The development of control strategies in both North America and Europe to close the gaps between current exceedances of environmental limits, guide values, critical levels or loads and full compliance with these limits provides the focus for policy makers and the support agencies for the research. The models represent the only method of testing a range of control options in advance of implementation. This paper describes currently applied models of photochemical oxidant production and transport at global and regional scales and their ability to simulate individual episodes as well as photochemical oxidant climatology. The success of current models in quantifying the exposure of terrestrial surfaces and the population to potentially damaging O(3) concentrations (and dose) is examined. The analysis shows the degree to which the underlying processes and their application within the models limit the quality of the model products.