Exploring the link between microseism and sea ice in Antarctica by using machine learning

The most continuous and ubiquitous seismic signal on Earth is the microseism, closely related to ocean wave energy coupling with the solid Earth. A peculiar feature of microseism recorded in Antarctica is the link with the sea ice, making the temporal pattern of microseism amplitudes different with respect to the microseism recorded in low-middle latitude regions. Indeed, during austral winters, in Antarctica the oceanic waves cannot efficiently excite seismic energy because of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Here, we quantitatively investigate the relationship between microseism, recorded along the Antarctic coasts, and sea ice concentration. In particular, we show a decrease in sea ice sensitivity of microseism, due to the increasing distance from the station recording the seismic signal. The influence seems to strongly reduce for distances above 1,000 km. Finally, we present an algorithm, based on machine learning techniques, allowing to spatially and temporally reconstruct the sea ice distribution around Antarctica based on the microseism amplitudes. This technique will allow reconstructing the sea ice concentration in both Arctic and Antarctica in periods when the satellite images, routinely used for sea ice monitoring, are not available, with wide applications in many fields, first of all climate studies.

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.