Using ARMAX Models to Determine the Drivers of 40-150 keV GOES Electron Fluxes

We investigate the drivers of 40-150 keV hourly electron flux at geostationary orbit (GOES 13) using autoregressive moving average transfer functions (ARMAX) multiple regression models which remove the confounding effect of diurnal cyclicity and allow assessment of each parameter independently. By taking logs of the variables, we create nonlinear models. While many factors show high correlation with flux in single variable analysis (substorms, ULF waves, solar wind velocity (V), pressure (P), number density (N) and electric field (E _y ), IMF Bz, Kp, and SymH), ARMAX models show substorms are the dominant influence at 40-75 keV and over 20-12 MLT, with little difference seen between disturbed and quiet periods. The Ey influence is positive post-midnight, negative post-noon. Pressure shows a negative influence, strongest at 150 keV. ULF waves are a more modest influence than suggested by single variable correlation. Kp and SymH show little effect when other variables are included. Using path analysis, we calculate the summed direct and indirect influences through the driving of intermediate parameters. Pressure shows a summed direct and indirect influence nearly half that of the direct substorm effect. N, V, and B _z , as indirect drivers, are equally influential. While simple correlation or neural networks can be used for flux prediction, neither can effectively identify drivers. Instead, consideration of physical influences, removing cycles that artificially inflate correlations, and controlling the effects of other parameters gives a clearer picture of which are most influential in this system.

Diffuse Auroral Electron and Ion Precipitation Effects on RCM-E Comparisons With Satellite Data During the 17 March 2013 Storm

Effects of scattering of electrons from whistler chorus waves and of ions due to field line curvature on diffuse precipitating particle fluxes and ionospheric conductance during the large 17 March 2013 storm are examined using the self-consistent Rice Convection Model Equilibrium (RCM-E) model. Electrons are found to dominate the diffuse precipitating particle integrated energy flux, with large fluxes from ~21:00 magnetic local time (MLT) eastward to ~11:00 MLT during the storm main phase. Simulated proton and oxygen ion precipitation due to field line curvature scattering is sporadic and localized, occurring where model magnetic field lines are significantly stretched on the night side at equatorial geocentric radial distances r 0 ≳8 R E and/or at r 0 ~5.5 to 6.5 R E from dusk to midnight where the partial ring current field has perturbed the magnetic field. The precipitating protons likewise contribute sporadically to the storm time Hall and Pedersen conductance in localized regions whereas the precipitating electrons are the dominate storm time contributor to enhanced Hall and Pedersen conductance at auroral magnetic latitudes on the night and morning side. The RCM-E model can reproduce general features of the Van Allen Probe/MagEIS observed trapped electron differential flux spectrograms over energies of ~37 to 150 keV. The simulations with a parameterized electron loss model also reproduce reasonably well the storm time Defense Meteorological Satellite Program integrated electron energy flux at 850 km at satellite crossings from predawn to midmorning. However, model-data agreement is not as good from dusk to premidnight where there are large uncertainties in the electron loss model.

Comparison of DMSP and SECS region-1 and region-2 ionospheric current boundary

The region-1 and region-2 boundary has traditionally been identified using data from a single spacecraft crossing the auroral region and measuring the large scale changes in the cross track magnetic field. With data from the AUTUMN, CANMOS, CARISMA, GIMA, DTU MGS, MACCS, McMAC, STEP, THEMIS, and USGS ground magnetometer arrays we applied a state-of-art technique based on spherical elementary current system (SECS) method developed by Amm and Viljanen (1999) in order to calculate maps of region-1 and region-2 current system over the North American and Greenland auroral region. Spherical elementary current (SEC) amplitude (proxy for vertical currents) maps can be inferred at 10 s temporal resolution, ~1.5° geographic latitude (Glat), and 3.5° geographic longitude (Glon) spatial resolution. We compare the location of the region-1 and region-2 boundary obtained by the DMSP spacecraft with the region-1 and region-2 boundary observed in the SEC current amplitudes. We find that the boundaries typically agree within 0.2° ± 1.3°. These results indicate that the location of the region-1 and region-2 boundary can reasonably be determined from ground magnetometer data. The SECS maps represent a value-added product from the magnetometer database and can be used for contextual interpretation in conjunction with other missions as well as help with our understanding of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mechanisms using the ground arrays and the magnetospheric spacecraft data.