Fluid-driven aseismic fault slip with permeability enhancement and dilatancy

Injection-induced seismicity and aseismic slip often involve the reactivation of long-dormant faults, which may have extremely low permeability prior to slip. In contrast, most previous models of fluid-driven aseismic slip have assumed linear pressure diffusion in a fault zone of constant permeability and porosity. Slip occurs within a frictional shear crack whose edge can either lag or lead pressure diffusion, depending on the dimensionless stress-injection parameter that quantifies the prestress and injection conditions. Here, we extend this foundational work by accounting for permeability enhancement and dilatancy, assumed to occur instantaneously upon the onset of slip. The fault zone ahead of the crack is assumed to be impermeable, so fluid flow and pressure diffusion are confined to the interior, slipped part of the crack. The confinement of flow increases the pressurization rate and reduction of fault strength, facilitating crack growth even for severely understressed faults. Suctions from dilatancy slow crack growth, preventing propagation beyond the hydraulic diffusion length. Our new two-dimensional and three-dimensional solutions can facilitate the interpretation of induced seismicity data sets. They are especially relevant for faults in initially low permeability formations, such as shale layers serving as caprock seals for geologic carbon storage, or for hydraulic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs.This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Dynamic imaging of force chains in 3D granular media

Granular media constitute the most abundant form of solid matter on Earth and beyond. When external forces are applied to a granular medium, the forces are transmitted through it via chains of contacts among grains-force chains. Understanding the spatial structure and temporal evolution of force chains constitutes a fundamental goal of granular mechanics. Here, we introduce an experimental technique, interference optical projection tomography, to study force chains in three-dimensional (3D) granular packs under triaxial shear loads and illustrate the technique with random assemblies of spheres and icosahedra. We find that, in response to an increasing vertical load, the pack of spheres forms intensifying vertical force chains, while the pack of icosahedra forms more interconnected force-chain networks. This provides microscopic insights into why particles with more angularity are more resistant to shear failure-the interconnected force-chain network is stronger (that is, more resilient to topological collapse) than the isolated force chains in round particles. The longer force chains with less branching in the pack of round particles are more likely to buckle, which leads to the macroscopic failure of the pack. This work paves the way for understanding the grain-scale underpinning of localized failure of 3D granular media, such as shear localization in landslides and stick-slip frictional motion in tectonic and induced earthquakes.

Universal behavior in fragmenting brittle, isotropic solids across material properties

A bonded particle model is used to explore how variations in the material properties of brittle, isotropic solids affect critical behavior in fragmentation. To control material properties, a model is proposed which includes breakable two- and three-body particle interactions to calibrate elastic moduli and mode I and mode II fracture toughnesses. In the quasistatic limit, fragmentation leads to a power-law distribution of grain sizes which is truncated at a maximum grain mass that grows as a nontrivial power of system size. In the high-rate limit, truncation occurs at a mass that decreases as a power of increasing rate. A scaling description is used to characterize this behavior by collapsing the mean-square grain mass across rates and system sizes. Consistent scaling persists across all material properties studied, although there are differences in the evolution of grain size distributions with strain as the initial number of grains at fracture and their subsequent rate of production depend on Poisson's ratio. This evolving granular structure is found to induce a unique rheology where the ratio of the shear stress to pressure, an internal friction coefficient, decays approximately as the logarithm of increasing strain rate. The stress ratio also decreases at all rates with increasing strain as fragmentation progresses and depends on elastic properties of the solid.

Foreshock properties illuminate nucleation processes of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes

Understanding the connection between seismic activity and the earthquake nucleation process is a fundamental goal in earthquake seismology with important implications for earthquake early warning systems and forecasting. We use high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) waveform measurements from laboratory stick-slip experiments that span a spectrum of slow to fast slip rates to probe spatiotemporal properties of laboratory foreshocks and nucleation processes. We measure waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel-times (DTT) between AEs throughout the seismic cycle. AEs broadcasted prior to slow labquakes have small DTT and high waveform similarity relative to fast labquakes. We show that during slow stick-slip, the fault never fully locks, and waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel times do not evolve throughout the seismic cycle. In contrast, fast laboratory earthquakes are preceded by a rapid increase in waveform similarity late in the seismic cycle and a reduction in differential travel times, indicating that AEs begin to coalesce as the fault slip velocity increases leading up to failure. These observations point to key differences in the nucleation process of slow and fast labquakes and suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of laboratory foreshocks is linked to fault slip velocity.

The role of pore fluids in supershear earthquake ruptures

The intensity and damage potential of earthquakes are linked to the speed at which rupture propagates along sliding crustal faults. Most earthquakes are sub-Rayleigh, with ruptures that are slower than the surface Rayleigh waves. In supershear earthquakes, ruptures are faster than the shear waves, leading to sharp pressure concentrations and larger intensities compared with the more common sub-Rayleigh ones. Despite significant theoretical and experimental advances over the past two decades, the geological and geomechanical controls on rupture speed transitions remain poorly understood. Here we propose that pore fluids play an important role in explaining earthquake rupture speed: the pore pressure may increase sharply at the compressional front during rupture propagation, promoting shear failure ahead of the rupture front and accelerating its propagation into the supershear range. We characterize the transition from sub-Rayleigh to supershear rupture in fluid-saturated rock, and show that the proposed poroelastic weakening mechanism may be a controlling factor for intersonic earthquake ruptures.

A Discrete Elements Study of the Frictional Behavior of Fault Gouges

A series of discrete elements simulations is presented for the study of fault gouges' frictional response. The gouge is considered to have previously undergone ultra-cataclastic flow and long-time consolidation loading. We explore the effect of different particle characteristics such as size, polydispersity, and also shearing velocities on gouge's response under the conditions met in the seismogenic zone. Monte-Carlo analyses suggest that the local stick-slip events disappear when averaging over a large number of numerical samples. Moreover, the apparent material frictional response remains almost unaffected by the spatial randomness of particles' position and by the particle's size distribution. On the contrary, the mean particle size controls the formation and thickness of the observed shear bands, which appear after the peak friction is met. Furthermore, the apparent friction evolution fits well to an exponential decay law with slip, which involves a particle size dependent critical slip distance. For the studied conditions and depth, the shearing velocity is found to play a secondary role on the apparent frictional response of the gouge, which highlights the importance of analyses involving multiphysics for studying the rheology of fault gouges. Besides improving the understanding of the underlying physics of the problem, the above findings are also useful for deriving pertinent constitutive models in the case of modeling with continuum theories.

The Memory of a Fault Gouge: An Example from the Simplon Fault Zone (Central Alps)

Faut gouge forms at the core of the fault as the result of a slip in the upper brittle crust. Therefore, the deformation mechanisms and conditions under which the fault gouge was formed can document the stages of fault movement in the crust. We carried out a microstructural analysis on a fault gouge from a hanging-wall branch fault of the Simplon Fault Zone, a major low-angle normal fault in the European Alps. We use thin-section analysis, together with backscattered electron imaging and X-ray diffractometry (XRD), to show that a multistage history from ductile to brittle deformation within the fault gouge. We argue that this multistage deformation history is the result of continuous exhumation history from high to low temperature, along the Simplon Fault Zone. Because of the predominance of pressure solution and veining, we associated a large part of the deformation in the fault gouge with viscous-frictional behaviour that occurred at the brittle-ductile transition. Phyllosilicates and graphite likely caused fault lubrication that we suggested played a role in localizing slip along this major low-angle normal fault.

The High-Frequency Signature of Slow and Fast Laboratory Earthquakes

Tectonic faults fail through a spectrum of slip modes, ranging from slow aseismic creep to rapid slip during earthquakes. Understanding the seismic radiation emitted during these slip modes is key for advancing earthquake science and earthquake hazard assessment. In this work, we use laboratory friction experiments instrumented with ultrasonic sensors to document the seismic radiation properties of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes. Stick-slip experiments were conducted at a constant loading rate of 8 μm/s and the normal stress was systematically increased from 7 to 15 MPa. We produced a full spectrum of slip modes by modulating the loading stiffness in tandem with the fault zone normal stress. Acoustic emission data were recorded continuously at 5 MHz. We demonstrate that the full continuum of slip modes radiate measurable high-frequency energy between 100 and 500 kHz, including the slowest events that have peak fault slip rates <100 μm/s. The peak amplitude of the high-frequency time-domain signals scales systematically with fault slip velocity. Stable sliding experiments further support the connection between fault slip rate and high-frequency radiation. Experiments demonstrate that the origin of the high-frequency energy is fundamentally linked to changes in fault slip rate, shear strain, and breaking of contact junctions within the fault gouge. Our results suggest that having measurements close to the fault zone may be key for documenting seismic radiation properties and fully understanding the connection between different slip modes.

Dynamic rupture initiation and propagation in a fluid-injection laboratory setup with diagnostics across multiple temporal scales

Fluids are known to trigger a broad range of slip events, from slow, creeping transients to dynamic earthquake ruptures. Yet, the detailed mechanics underlying these processes and the conditions leading to different rupture behaviors are not well understood. Here, we use a laboratory earthquake setup, capable of injecting pressurized fluids, to compare the rupture behavior for different rates of fluid injection, slow (megapascals per hour) versus fast (megapascals per second). We find that for the fast injection rates, dynamic ruptures are triggered at lower pressure levels and over spatial scales much smaller than the quasistatic theoretical estimates of nucleation sizes, suggesting that such fast injection rates constitute dynamic loading. In contrast, the relatively slow injection rates result in gradual nucleation processes, with the fluid spreading along the interface and causing stress changes consistent with gradually accelerating slow slip. The resulting dynamic ruptures propagating over wetted interfaces exhibit dynamic stress drops almost twice as large as those over the dry interfaces. These results suggest the need to take into account the rate of the pore-pressure increase when considering nucleation processes and motivate further investigation on how friction properties depend on the presence of fluids.

Strain localization in planar shear of granular media: the role of porosity and boundary conditions

Shear strain localization into shear bands is associated with velocity weakening instabilities and earthquakes. Here, we simulate steady-state plane-shear flow of numerical granular material (gouge), confined between parallel surfaces. Both constant shear stress and constant strain-rate boundary conditions are tested, and the two types of boundary conditions are found to yield distinct velocity profiles and friction laws. The inertial number, I, exerts the largest control on the layers' behavior, but additional dependencies of friction on normal stress and thickness of the layer are observed under constant stress boundary condition. We find that shear-band localization, which is present in the quasistatic regime ([Formula: see text]) in rate-controlled shear, is absent under stress-controlled loading. In the latter case, flow ceases when macroscopic friction coefficient approaches the quasistatic friction value. The inertial regime that occurs at higher inertial numbers ([Formula: see text]) is associated with distributed shear, and friction and porosity that increase with shear rate (rate-strengthening regime). The finding that shear under constant stress boundary condition produces the inertial, distributed shear but never quasistatic, localized deformation is rationalized based on low fluctuations of shear forces in granular contacts for stress-controlled loading. By examining porosity within and outside a shear band, we also provide a mechanical reason why the transition between quasistatic and inertial shear coincides with the transition between localized and distributed strain.

Frequency-Magnitude Statistics of Laboratory Foreshocks Vary With Shear Velocity, Fault Slip Rate, and Shear Stress

Understanding the temporal evolution of foreshocks and their relation to earthquake nucleation is important for earthquake early warning systems, earthquake hazard assessment, and earthquake physics. Laboratory experiments on intact rock and rough fractures have demonstrated that the number and size of acoustic emission (AE) events increase and that the Gutenberg-Richter b-value decreases prior to coseismic failure. However, for lab fault zones of finite width, where shear occurs within gouge, the physical processes that dictate temporal variations in frequency-magnitude (F/M) statistics of lab foreshocks are unclear. Here, we report on a series of laboratory experiments to illuminate the physical processes that govern temporal variations in b-value and AE size. We record AE data continuously for hundreds of lab seismic cycles and report F/M statistics. Our foreshock catalogs include cases where F/M data are not exponentially distributed, but we retain the concept of b-value for comparison with other works. We find that b-value decreases as the fault approaches failure, consistent with previous works. We also find that b-value scales inversely with shear velocity and fault slip rate, suggesting that fault slip acceleration during earthquake nucleation could impact foreshock F/M statistics. We propose that fault zone dilation and grain mobilization have a strong influence on foreshock magnitude. Fault dilation at higher shearing rates increases porosity and results in larger foreshocks and smaller b-values. Our observations suggest that lab earthquakes are preceded by a preparatory nucleation phase with systematic variations in AE and fault zone properties.

Multiscale Post-Seismic Deformation Based on cGNSS Time Series Following the 2015 Lefkas (W. Greece) Mw6.5 Earthquake

In the present work, a multiscale post-seismic relaxation mechanism, based on the existence of a distribution in relaxation time, is presented. Assuming an Arrhenius dependence of the relaxation time with uniform distributed activation energy in a mesoscopic scale, a generic logarithmic-type relaxation in a macroscopic scale results. The model was applied in the case of the strong 2015 Lefkas Mw6.5 (W. Greece) earthquake, where continuous GNSS (cGNSS) time series were recorded in a station located in the near vicinity of the epicentral area. The application of the present approach to the Lefkas event fits the observed displacements implied by a distribution of relaxation times in the range τmin ≈ 3.5 days to τmax ≈ 350 days.

Microphysical Modeling of Carbonate Fault Friction at Slip Rates Spanning the Full Seismic Cycle

Laboratory studies suggest that seismogenic rupture on faults in carbonate terrains can be explained by a transition from high friction, at low sliding velocities (V), to low friction due to rapid dynamic weakening as seismic slip velocities are approached. However, consensus on the controlling physical processes is lacking. We previously proposed a microphysically based model (the "Chen-Niemeijer-Spiers" [CNS] model) that accounts for the (rate-and-state) frictional behavior of carbonate fault gouges seen at low velocities characteristic of rupture nucleation. In the present study, we extend the CNS model to high velocities (1 mm/s ≤ V ≤ 10 m/s) by introducing multiple grain-scale deformation mechanisms activated by frictional heating. As velocity and hence temperature increase, the model predicts a continuous transition in dominant deformation mechanisms, from frictional granular flow with partial accommodation by plasticity at low velocities and temperatures, to grain boundary sliding with increasing accommodation by solid-state diffusion at high velocities and temperatures. Assuming that slip occurs in a localized shear band, within which grain size decreases with increasing velocity, the model results capture the main mechanical trends seen in high-velocity friction experiments on room-dry calcite-rich rocks, including steady-state and transient aspects, with reasonable quantitative agreement and without the need to invoke thermal decomposition or fluid pressurization effects. The extended CNS model covers the full spectrum of slip velocities from earthquake nucleation to seismic slip rates. Since it is based on realistic fault structure, measurable microstructural state variables, and established deformation mechanisms, it may offer an improved basis for extrapolating lab-derived friction data to natural fault conditions.

Advanced Geomechanical Model to Predict the Impact of CO2-Induced Microstructural Alterations on the Cohesive-Frictional Behavior of Mt. Simon Sandstone

We investigated the influence of CO2-induced geochemical reactions on the cohesive-frictional properties of host rock within the context of CO2 storage in a saline aquifer and focused on the Mt. Simon sandstone. The research objective was to model geo-mechanical changes due to host rock exposure to CO2-saturated brine while accounting for heterogeneity, double-scale porosity, and granular structure. We formulated a three-level multi-scale model for host rocks. We conducted scanning electron microscopy analyses to probe the microstructure and grid nanoindentation to measure the mechanical response. We derived new nonlinear strength upscaling solutions to correlate the effective strength characteristics and the macroscopic yield surface to the micro-structure at the nano-, micro-, and meso-scales. Specifically, our theoretical model links CO2-induced microstructural alterations to a reduction in the size of the yield surface, and a drop in the value of the friction coefficient. In turn, regarding the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, the CO2-induced drop in friction coefficient is linked to an increase in the risk of fault slip and a higher probability of induced microseismicity during and after the end of CO2 underground injection operations. The theoretical model presented is essential for the geo-mechanical modeling of CO2 underground injection operations at multiple length-scales.

Post-seismic deformation mechanism of the July 2015 MW 6.5 Pishan earthquake revealed by Sentinel-1A InSAR observation

On 3 July 2015, the Mw 6.5 Pishan earthquake occurred at the junction of the southwestern margin of the Tarim Basin and the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. To understand the seismogenic mechanism and the post-seismic deformation behavior, we investigated the characteristics of the post-seismic deformation fields in the seismic area, using 9 Sentinel-1A TOPS synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired from 18 July 2015 to 22 September 2016 with the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric SAR (SBAS-InSAR) technique. Postseismic LOS deformation displayed logarithmic behavior, and the temporal evolution of the post-seismic deformation is consistent with the aftershock sequence. The main driving mechanism of near-field post-seismic displacement was most likely to be afterslip on the fault and the entire creep process consists of three creeping stages. Afterward, we used the steepest descent method to invert the afterslip evolution process and analyzed the relationship between post-seismic afterslip and co-seismic slip. The results witness that 447 days after the mainshock (22 September 2016), the afterslip was concentrated within one principal slip center. It was located 5-25 km along the fault strike, 0-10 km along with the fault dip, with a cumulative peak slip of 0.18 m. The 447 days afterslip seismic moment was approximately 2.65 × 10¹⁷ N m, accounting for approximately 4.1% of the co-seismic geodetic moment. The deep afterslip revealed that a creeping process from steady-state "secondary" creeping to accelerating "tertiary" creep in the deep of fault. The future seismic hazard deserves further attention and research.

Aseismic transient slip on the Gofar transform fault, East Pacific Rise

Oceanic transform faults display a unique combination of seismic and aseismic slip behavior, including a large globally averaged seismic deficit, and the local occurrence of repeating magnitude (M) [Formula: see text] earthquakes with abundant foreshocks and seismic swarms, as on the Gofar transform of the East Pacific Rise and the Blanco Ridge in the northeast Pacific Ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms that govern the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip and their interaction remain unclear. Here we present a numerical modeling study of earthquake sequences and aseismic transient slip on oceanic transform faults. In the model, strong dilatancy strengthening, supported by seismic imaging that indicates enhanced fluid-filled porosity and possible hydrothermal circulation down to the brittle-ductile transition, effectively stabilizes along-strike seismic rupture propagation and results in rupture barriers where aseismic transients arise episodically. The modeled slow slip migrates along the barrier zones at speeds ∼10 to 600 m/h, spatiotemporally correlated with the observed migration of seismic swarms on the Gofar transform. Our model thus suggests the possible prevalence of episodic aseismic transients in M [Formula: see text] rupture barrier zones that host active swarms on oceanic transform faults and provides candidates for future seafloor geodesy experiments to verify the relation between aseismic fault slip, earthquake swarms, and fault zone hydromechanical properties.

Slow-to-fast transition of giant creeping rockslides modulated by undrained loading in basal shear zones

Giant rockslides are widespread and sensitive to hydrological forcing, especially in climate change scenarios. They creep slowly for centuries and then can fail catastrophically posing major threats to society. However, the mechanisms regulating the slow-to-fast transition toward their catastrophic collapse remain elusive. We couple laboratory experiments on natural rockslide shear zone material and in situ observations to provide a scale-independent demonstration that short-term pore fluid pressure variations originate a full spectrum of creep styles, modulated by slip-induced undrained conditions. Shear zones respond to pore pressure increments by impulsive acceleration and dilatancy, causing spontaneous deceleration followed by sustained steady-rate creep. Increasing pore pressure results in high creep rates and eventual collapse. Laboratory experiments quantitatively capture the in situ behavior of giant rockslides and lay physically-based foundations to understand the collapse of giant rockslides.

Strain localization in dry sheared granular materials: A compactivity-based approach

Shear banding is widely observed in natural fault zones as well as in laboratory experiments on granular materials. Understanding the dynamics of strain localization under different loading conditions is essential for quantifying strength evolution of fault gouge and energy partitioning during earthquakes and characterizing rheological transitions and fault zone structure changes. To that end, we develop a physics-based continuum model for strain localization in sheared granular materials. The grain-scale dynamics is described by the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory, a nonequilibrium statistical thermodynamic framework for viscoplastic deformation in amorphous materials. Using a finite strain computational framework, we investigate the initiation and growth of complex shear bands under a variety of loading conditions and identify implications for strength evolution and the ductile to brittle transition. Our numerical results show similar localization patterns to field and laboratory observations and suggest that shear zones show more ductile response at higher confining pressures, lower dilatancy, and loose initial conditions. Lower pressures, higher dilatancy, and dense initial conditions favor a brittle response and larger strength drops. These findings shed light on a range of mechanisms for strength evolution in dry sheared granular materials and provide a critical input to physics-based multiscale models of fault zone instabilities.

Rapid tremor migration and pore-pressure waves in subduction zones

Rapid tremor migration (RTM) in subduction zones is a manifestation of complex fault-zone processes on the plate interface. Recent observations have revealed a large diversity of RTM patterns that are always associated with aseismic, shear strain at the interface. Small unstable asperities embedded in the stable shear zone are thus believed to originate tremor radiation during migration. Tectonic tremors have been recognized to occur where overpressured fluids exist. Spatial variations of fluid pressure may lead to non-linear diffusion processes with potentially large implications in tremor generation. Here, we show that pore-pressure waves are likely to exist in the plate interface, propagating with speeds and pathways similar to RTMs observed in different subduction zones including Guerrero, Mexico, where we introduce new high-resolution tremor locations and a RTM source physical model. These waves may explain the whole hierarchy of RTM patterns by producing transient reductions of the fault strength and thus secondary slip fronts triggering tremor during slow earthquakes.

Rapid tremor migration in subduction zones has been associated with aseismic, shear strain at the plate interface. Here, the authors develop a physical model that shows that pore-pressure waves at the plate interface are likely to generate secondary slip fronts triggering rapid tremor migrations with speeds and pathways similar to those observed in subduction zones.

Rate and State Friction Relation for Nanoscale Contacts: Thermally Activated Prandtl-Tomlinson Model with Chemical Aging

Rate and state friction (RSF) laws are widely used empirical relationships that describe macroscale to microscale frictional behavior. They entail a linear combination of the direct effect (the increase of friction with sliding velocity due to the reduced influence of thermal excitations) and the evolution effect (the change in friction with changes in contact "state," such as the real contact area or the degree of interfacial chemical bonds). Recent atomic force microscope (AFM) experiments and simulations found that nanoscale single-asperity amorphous silica-silica contacts exhibit logarithmic aging (increasing friction with time) over several decades of contact time, due to the formation of interfacial chemical bonds. Here we establish a physically based RSF relation for such contacts by combining the thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson (PTT) model with an evolution effect based on the physics of chemical aging. This thermally activated Prandtl-Tomlinson model with chemical aging (PTTCA), like the PTT model, uses the loading point velocity for describing the direct effect, not the tip velocity (as in conventional RSF laws). Also, in the PTTCA model, the combination of the evolution and direct effects may be nonlinear. We present AFM data consistent with the PTTCA model whereby in aging tests, for a given hold time, static friction increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity. Kinetic friction also increases with the logarithm of the loading point velocity at sufficiently high velocities, but at a different increasing rate. The discrepancy between the rates of increase of static and kinetic friction with velocity arises from the fact that appreciable aging during static contact changes the energy landscape. Our approach extends the PTT model, originally used for crystalline substrates, to amorphous materials. It also establishes how conventional RSF laws can be modified for nanoscale single-asperity contacts to provide a physically based friction relation for nanoscale contacts that exhibit chemical bond-induced aging, as well as other aging mechanisms with similar physical characteristics.

Strength of shear bands in fluid-saturated rocks: a nonlinear effect of competition between dilation and fluid flow

This study shows the significant and nonlinear effect of the competition between dilation and fluid flow on the shear strength of constrained shear bands in fluid-saturated rocks. This effect is conditioned by the contribution of the pore pressure to the yield stress and strength. The pore pressure is controlled by the dilation of the pore space in the solid skeleton of the shear band during plastic deformation and by squeezing of pores in surrounding blocks by the dilating shear band due to the high stiffness of the host massif. A generalized equation has been derived to describe the dependence of the shear band strength on the ratio of strain rate to fluid flow rate.

Emergence and seismological implications of phase transition and universality in a system with interaction between thermal pressurization and dilatancy

A dynamic earthquake source process is modeled by assuming interaction among frictional heat, fluid pressure, and inelastic porosity. In particular, fluid pressure increase due to frictional heating (thermal pressurization effect) and fluid pressure decrease due to inelastic porosity increase (dilatancy effect) play important roles in this process. Two nullclines become exactly the same in the system of governing equations, which generates non-isolated fixed points in the phase space. These lead to a type of phase transition, which produces a universality described by the power law between the initial value of one variable and the final value of the other variable. The universal critical exponent is found to be 1/2, which is independent of the details of the porosity evolution law. We can regard the dynamic earthquake slip process as a phase transition by considering the final porosity or slip as the order parameter. Physical prediction of phase emergence is difficult because the porosity evolution law has uncertainties, and the final slip amount is difficult to predict because of the universality. Finally, nonlinear mathematical application of the result is also discussed.

Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions

Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30 m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip.

An empirically based steady state friction law and implications for fault stability

Empirically based rate-and-state friction laws (RSFLs) have been proposed to model the dependence of friction forces with slip and time. The relevance of the RSFL for earthquake mechanics is that few constitutive parameters define critical conditions for fault stability (i.e., critical stiffness and frictional fault behavior). However, the RSFLs were determined from experiments conducted at subseismic slip rates (V < 1 cm/s), and their extrapolation to earthquake deformation conditions (V > 0.1 m/s) remains questionable on the basis of the experimental evidence of (1) large dynamic weakening and (2) activation of particular fault lubrication processes at seismic slip rates. Here we propose a modified RSFL (MFL) based on the review of a large published and unpublished data set of rock friction experiments performed with different testing machines. The MFL, valid at steady state conditions from subseismic to seismic slip rates (0.1 µm/s < V < 3 m/s), describes the initiation of a substantial velocity weakening in the 1-20 cm/s range resulting in a critical stiffness increase that creates a peak of potential instability in that velocity regime. The MFL leads to a new definition of fault frictional stability with implications for slip event styles and relevance for models of seismic rupture nucleation, propagation, and arrest.

Velocity-strengthening friction significantly affects interfacial dynamics, strength and dissipation

Frictional interfaces abound in natural and man-made systems, yet their dynamics are not well-understood. Recent extensive experimental data have revealed that velocity-strengthening friction, where the steady-state frictional resistance increases with sliding velocity over some range, is a generic feature of such interfaces. This physical behavior has very recently been linked to slow stick-slip motion. Here we elucidate the importance of velocity-strengthening friction by theoretically studying three variants of a realistic friction model, all featuring identical logarithmic velocity-weakening friction at small sliding velocities, but differ in their higher velocity behaviors. By quantifying energy partition (e.g. radiation and dissipation), the selection of interfacial rupture fronts and rupture arrest, we show that the presence or absence of strengthening significantly affects the global interfacial resistance and the energy release during frictional instabilities. Furthermore, we show that different forms of strengthening may result in events of similar magnitude, yet with dramatically different dissipation and radiation rates. This happens because the events are mediated by rupture fronts with vastly different propagation velocities, where stronger velocity-strengthening friction promotes slower rupture. These theoretical results may have significant implications on our understanding of frictional dynamics.

Dynamics of sheared ellipses and circular disks: effects of particle shape

Much recent effort has focused on glassy and jamming properties of spherical particles. Very little is known about such phenomena for nonspherical particles, and we take a first step by studying ellipses. We find important differences between the dynamical and structural properties of disks and two-dimensional ellipses subject to continuous Couette shear. In particular, ellipses show slow dynamical evolution, without a counterpart in disks, in the mean velocity, local density, orientational order, and local stress. Starting from an unjammed state, ellipses can first jam under shear, and then slowly unjam. The slow unjamming process is understood as a result of gradual changes in their orientations, leading to a denser packing. For disks, the rotation of particles only contributes to the relaxation of frictional forces, and hence, does not significantly cause structural changes. For the shear-jammed states, the global building up and relaxation of stress, which occurs in the form of stress avalanches, is qualitatively different for disks and ellipses, and is manifested by different forms of rate dependence for ellipses versus disks. Unlike the weak rate dependence typical for many granular systems, ellipses show power-law dependence on the shearing rate Ω.